April 2018 General Discussion

[CheeselandSkies]

In the spirit of the subtitle of this thread, you would think the atmosphere has to be setting us up for some epic severe weather outbreak (think Palm Sunday 1965, which was likewise preceded by a heavy late season winter storm over much of the affected area), but looking at the models such is just not forthcoming.

The position of the anomalous late season snowpack is something to keep an eye on, as it can often act as a brick wall for warm fronts, so just south of it ends up being a severe weather hot spot. However, that would actually require systems coming through and the Gulf not getting wiped bone dry.

[cyclone77]

2 hours ago, Harry Perry said:

Like what the Euro is depicting after Thursday. Nice to see 60’s and possibly lower 70’s for much of the sub for several days (right on through next Wednesday). 

 

Yeah it definitely looks like things are heading in the right direction following Wednesday's wave.  No huge warm spells, but the lack of persistent cold air intrusions will be nice.  60s with late April sun will feel quite warm compared to what we've endured so far this "spring".

[Hoosier]

On 4/12/2018 at 10:53 PM, Hoosier said:

I was looking at Chicago temp records and found that they have had a high of 35F or lower only 10 times on/after April 16, with the vast majority of them happening in the 1800s or early 1900s. The last time it happened was 4/16/1961.

Given the airmass aloft and likelihood of considerable clouds, I think there is a shot to pull it off on Monday.  It could at least be a close call assuming there's not too much sun.  

ORD did it.  Today's high of 35 is only the 11th occurrence of a high of 35 or less in the back half of April.  Fwiw, Midway also recorded a high of 35.

Highs of 35 or less in Chicago on/after April 16, in chronological order:

4/16/1875:  27

4/17/1875:  27

4/16/1904:  32

4/19/1904:  34

4/20/1904:  32

4/23/1910:  35

4/18/1926:  35

4/16/1935:  35

4/21/1936:  35

4/16/1961:  31

4/16/2018:  35

[RCNYILWX]

ORD did it.  Today's high of 35 is only the 11th occurrence of a high of 35 or less in the back half of April.  Fwiw, Midway also recorded a high of 35.
Highs of 35 or less in Chicago on/after April 16, in chronological order:
4/16/1875:  27
4/17/1875:  27
4/16/1904:  32
4/19/1904:  34
4/20/1904:  32
4/23/1910:  35
4/18/1926:  35
4/16/1935:  35
4/21/1936:  35
4/16/1961:  31
4/16/2018:  35

Very impressive. In addition, only the 1961 (MDW) reading was not near the lake.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

[Hoosier]

15 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Very impressive. In addition, only the 1961 (MDW) reading was not near the lake.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
 

The back to back 20s in 1875 is just crazy.  I guess it would happen with a trough like this

[beavis1729]

More info to supplement Tim's earlier post:

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
650 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...Historic Cold Start for the First Half of April...

This is coming as no surprise to most, but the first 15 days of
April have been historically cold for most locations across Iowa.
Estherville, Mason City, Waterloo, Ottumwa and Lamoni currently 
rank as the coldest start to April on record /April 1-15/. Des 
Moines is currently 2nd coldest, behind 1881, as it is the only of
the sites with records dating back that far. 

Unfortunately, below average temperatures are expected to 
continue much of the week. By late this week and into the weekend,
a slight warming trend to near climatological normals is expected.

April 1 through 15

Estherville average temp is 27.6F or 16.0 below normal. Coldest 
on record to date.

Mason City average temp is 27.6 or 15.7 below normal. Coldest on
record to date.

Waterloo average temp is 30.6F or 15.1 below normal. Coldest on
record to date.

Des Moines average temp is 36.7F or 12.1 below normal. 2nd 
coldest on record to date.

Ottumwa average temp is 37.1F or 13.8 below normal. Coldest on
record to date.

Lamoni average temp is 37.8F or 11.5 below normal. Coldest on
record to date.

[michsnowfreak]

Its getting crazy the lack of spring in the midwest. After wet flurries all day yesterday, heavier snow showers dropped 0.2" in the evening last night. Then another 0.7" this morning, complete with snow on sidewalks and an ice rink of a commute for many. Its fluffy winter-like snow in almost late April, not slush.

 

 

 

 

 

[Chinook]

Even though the La Nina temp anomalies in the Pacific have faded away, the atmosphere seems to want to give us a La Nina typical pattern. These last few days have been cool and very snowy in the north Midwest into Montana, potentially helping part of Minnesota and the Dakotas to get more above normal in the annual snow. The cool temp anomalies have been a theme of these past few months for the north Midwest and Northwest. Wet weather in the last 90 days has prevailed in the Ohio Valley and nearby areas, also typical of La Nina winter.

On the annual snowfall % map, you can see that the Ohio River to Memphis area actually got above normal snow

I was watching the Minnesota vs. Winnipeg hockey game the other day, and they commented on how hard it was to travel to Minneapolis, with 13" of snow.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[snowstormcanuck]

It's 1:30pm on April 17th. 30 degrees outside with SHSN that's sticking!

Actually pushing the limits of my love of snow.

[beavis1729]

Yesterday 4/16, the high temp at MQT was only 23. This is the coldest high temp on record so late in the season. 

I guess you could argue that the high of 26 on 4/22/2015 was just as impressive. 

[Harry Perry]

If someone were to tell me in January that I’d be wearing Carhardts on the 17th of April - I would’ve told them they’re nuts. 

 

Impressive anamolies nonetheless. 27 degrees below normal - can you imagine if that was the other way around? 27 degrees above normal - seems wild, but isn’t too uncommon (2011/2012). Warmth is usually welcomed this time of year or even earlier and when the ridiculously hot string of 80 degree days comes on through, it tends to get us ready for summer - we don’t generally complain, but then when May and June approach, it’s cloudy, there’s an upper level low parked over the NE part of Michigan and we’re socked with highs in the 60’s to near 70 with a brisk N/NW wind and scattered showers - we feel like it’s so cold. 

 

Point of my story here, is while we’re all in this ridiculous weather - this is history in the making - chances are it won’t be this cold again next year - and come a week or two (or in June) we will definitely appreciate those 60-70° days. 

 

Long range is is looking good. Dare I say we will finally break into a more mid spring pattern? I see lots of 60s and 70s on the horizon.

[OHweather]

Measured 0.7” here shortly after noon.  Haven’t really had new accumulation since then, but with temps only in the mid 30s and off and on snow continuing the snow we got this morning hasn’t melted...pretty impressive. 

[Snowstorms]

1 hour ago, snowstormcanuck said:

It's 1:30pm on April 17th. 30 degrees outside with SHSN that's sticking!

Actually pushing the limits of my love of snow.

Spring where art thou? 

April 2018 is like how March 2012 was. Rare and uncommon. We will be back to normal by next week so that's good news. The real question is, will it last and/or will May be alot better (like how 1975 was) or also below normal. Hopefully it ain't the later because we've all had enough of it now, haha. 

[harrisale]

Still haven’t put the long johns away. 

Picked up about 0.5” today. 

What month is it again?

[Hoosier]

Although the April snow total is relatively modest in Chicago, there have been 4 days with measurable snow so far this month.  That is tied for 3rd most days with measurable snow in April, behind 7 days in April 1910 and 5 days in April 1961.  If tomorrow and Thursday both produce measurable snow, then it would move April 2018 into 2nd place all by itself.  This is obviously not a perfect metric as some luck is involved with timing (i.e. 1 day of 0.5" gets "penalized" compared to 2 days of 0.2" and 0.3") but is still a pretty good indicator of how the pattern has been unusually wintry and able to support snow on multiple occasions.

[luckyweather]

3 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

April 2018 is like how March 2012 was. 

Be interesting to see how they line up in magnitude when looked at in terms of standard deviation from normal.  Can only really compare highs and lows, and I think on that front March 2012 would easily win.  But in terms of the big picture - days of consecutive snowcover, snow depth, days with frozen precip, total frozen precip, in some areas all time top 5 or better system snow totals, etc - I think you're right and April 2018 is just as anomalous as March 2012.  It's wild that we get to experience both ends of the spring pendulum six years apart. 

[beavis1729]

Painesdale has a 53" snow depth, which is the highest that I've ever seen while looking through Upper Peninsula COOP reports over the years...and it's April 18th.  

Most years, you'll see the snowiest locations peak in the 40-45" range, usually in early to Mid March. 

Just crazy.

Even NWS Marquette has a 34" depth.


:   Station                       Max  Min  24Hr  12Hr  24Hr  Snow
: ID     Name               Time  Temp Temp Pcpn  Snow  Snow  Depth
:...................................................................
:Ontonagon County
BERM4 : Bergland Dam    : DH0800/ 29/  23/  0.03/    M/  0.2/   32
PDGM4 : Paulding        : DH0800/ 28/  20/     T/    M/    T/   27
:Houghton County
PDLM4 : Painesdale      : DH0700/  M/   M/     M/    M/  0.0/   53
JCBM4 : Jacobsville     : DH0700/ 33/  26/  0.00/    M/  0.0/   21
QNCM4 : Hancock         : DH0700/  M/   M/  0.02/    M/  0.2/   32
:Marquette County
CLKM4 : Champion 6E     : DH0700/ 28/  21/  0.03/    M/  0.5/   24
MQT   : NWS Marquette   : DH0700/ 27/  22/  0.02/    T/  0.8/   34
GGRM4 : Green Garden    : DH0525/  M/   M/  0.10/    M/  1.2/   16
HRVM4 : Harvey          : DH0800/  M/   M/  0.02/    M/  0.8/   32
:Alger County
MNSM4 : Munising        : DH0630/ 31/  26/  0.00/    M/  0.0/   39
GMSM4 : Grand Marais 10S: DH0700/  M/   M/  0.00/    M/  0.0/   43
:Delta County
GLDM4 : Gladstone       : DH0700/  M/   M/  0.00/    M/  0.0/   12
:Schoolcraft County
CKSM4 : Cooks           : DH0700/  M/   M/  0.00/    M/  0.0/   19
MTQM4 : Manistique WWTP : DH0700/ 31/  26/  0.00/    M/  0.0/   21

[XfireLOW]

With all the snowfall elsewhere, its seems hard to believe that I have only had a total of 4" of snowfall in by backyard since February 25th.  The lack of snow was frustrating in March, but now I am very pleased.  50's and sunny through the weekend in my forecast should melt most of remaining snow drifts and piles, while the most of the upper midwest is saturated with melting snow.  I even have thoughts of golfing before May 1st, which is a 50/50 proposition every year for my area.

[Chicago WX]

Just your average "lack of sunlight" average temperature departures to date (thru 4/18) for April 2018 in the Midwest. Ho hum.

Alpena: -10.6˚

Chicago: -10.7˚

Dayton: -6.4˚

Des Moines: -12.9˚

Detroit: -8.8˚

Dubuque: -14.7˚

Duluth: -11.6˚

Flint: -9.9˚

Fort Wayne: -7.5˚

Grand Rapids: -11.4˚

Green Bay: -12.1˚

Indianapolis: -6.8˚

International Falls: -14.1˚

La Crosse: -14.1˚

Lansing: -10.3˚

Madison: -13.1˚

Marquette: -12.8˚

Mason City: -16.4˚

Milwaukee: -9.2˚

Minneapolis: -15.9˚

Moline: -12.6˚

Peoria: -11.0˚

Rochester: -17.6˚

Rockford: -13.1˚

St. Cloud: -16.3˚

St. Louis: -9.5˚

South Bend: -11.0˚

Springfield: -8.7˚

Toledo: -8.0˚

Waterloo: -15.8˚

Wausau: -15.6˚

[SchaumburgStormer]

Finally... it appears we may have a stretch of average temps on the horizon. Just have to slog through the next few days 

[weatherbo]

Winter's grip lost... A very welcomed forecast.  The melt is on.

[Chicago Storm]

Finally... it appears we may have a stretch of average temps on the horizon. Just have to slog through the next few days 

Just today really, and even then it won’t be too bad with temps near 50 and sun.


.

[hawkeye_wx]

After tonight, nothing but 50s and 60s ahead, with no freezing temps at night.  

[Stebo]

6 hours ago, Chicago WX said:

Just your average "lack of sunlight" average temperature departures to date (thru 4/18) for April 2018 in the Midwest. Ho hum.

Alpena: -10.6˚

Chicago: -10.7˚

Dayton: -6.4˚

Des Moines: -12.9˚

Detroit: -8.8˚

Dubuque: -14.7˚

Duluth: -11.6˚

Flint: -9.9˚

Fort Wayne: -7.5˚

Grand Rapids: -11.4˚

Green Bay: -12.1˚

Indianapolis: -6.8˚

International Falls: -14.1˚

La Crosse: -14.1˚

Lansing: -10.3˚

Madison: -13.1˚

Marquette: -12.8˚

Mason City: -16.4˚

Milwaukee: -9.2˚

Minneapolis: -15.9˚

Moline: -12.6˚

Peoria: -11.0˚

Rochester: -17.6˚

Rockford: -13.1˚

St. Cloud: -16.3˚

St. Louis: -9.5˚

South Bend: -11.0˚

Springfield: -8.7˚

Toledo: -8.0˚

Waterloo: -15.8˚

Wausau: -15.6˚

Yeah that comment was asinine, some of these departures are rivaling March 2012.

[Stebo]

3 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

lol, right. Those areas further north are coming down. March 2012 was so widespread, it simply blows away anything else in CONUS history. Many areas of the US have been above normal down south.

It is comparative in this region. I don't know why you are going to be ignorant on this but hey have at it. Numbers don't lie and they are comparative, plain and simple.

[cyclone77]

55, full sun, and light winds today.  Felt like the 70s after yesterday's drizzlefest @ 33 degrees.  The 1/2" of snow was gone by 10am.

[Snowstorms]

First beautiful weekend of Spring in store with high's around 50-60F, which funny enough is the around the average high of 55F. 

Can't wait, bring it on! 

[wisconsinwx]

I'm going to challenge the notion that snowcover makes a significant temperature difference; I've been tracking temperatures in my head much of the winter, sometimes comparing cities' observations and their snowcover, and time and again I've been surprised at its minimal impact.  MKE had 6-8" on the ground heading into today, and they are currently sitting at 50F; Green Bay has even more on the ground without a doubt and they're at 52F.  Rewind back to early January, when Detroit had a lot of snowcover but Milwaukee very little, shortly after New Year's, our highs and lows were consistently 5F or so lower, which is on par with the typical difference if not greater.  It's hard to reconcile that snowcover can make a 5F (let alone 10F or so like I've read a couple times throughout the years).  Based on that, without snow both Milwaukee and Green Bay should have expected highs more into the upper 50s today.  Does anyone have any thoughts (anecdotal like mine or not)?  Maybe if all was equal and two cities had calm winds, there might be a difference, but given other myriad factors, I think other said factors are more important than snowcover (wind direction, cloud cover, etc).

Edit: feel free to move this into the banter thread if you want, but given the relevance to this April snowmelt process (and the fact that low 40s were forecast this morning due to snowcover and we busted by 5F to 10F, it added to my thoughts on this) I decided to put it in here.

[cyclone77]

12 minutes ago, wisconsinwx said:

I'm going to challenge the notion that snowcover makes a significant temperature difference; I've been tracking temperatures in my head much of the winter, sometimes comparing cities' observations and their snowcover, and time and again I've been surprised at its minimal impact.  MKE had 6-8" on the ground heading into today, and they are currently sitting at 50F; Green Bay has even more on the ground without a doubt and they're at 52F.  Rewind back to early January, when Detroit had a lot of snowcover but Milwaukee very little, shortly after New Year's, our highs and lows were consistently 5F or so lower, which is on par with the typical difference if not greater.  It's hard to reconcile that snowcover can make a 5F (let alone 10F or so like I've read a couple times throughout the years).  Based on that, without snow both Milwaukee and Green Bay should have expected highs more into the upper 50s today.  Does anyone have any thoughts (anecdotal like mine or not)?  Maybe if all was equal and two cities had calm winds, there might be a difference, but given other myriad factors, I think other said factors are more important than snowcover (wind direction, cloud cover, etc).

Edit: feel free to move this into the banter thread if you want, but given the relevance to this April snowmelt process (and the fact that low 40s were forecast this morning due to snowcover and we busted by 5F to 10F, it added to my thoughts on this) I decided to put it in here.

Check out northern Iowa/southern MN.

[BuffaloWeather]

Finally some warmth coming next week!