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April 2018 General Discussion


SchaumburgStormer

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Today will be the first time this month YYZ will finally go above 50F and only the 2nd since March 1st. Currently sitting at 44F as of 2pm. Then the next 5-7 days or so are back below 50F before the potential for another warm-up next weekend as the central ridge retrogrades. Finally! <_<

From April 4th-10th we saw consecutive nights with a minimum below 26.5F, which is the 4th longest streak on record. Highest ever was in 1975 at 14. 

 

 

 

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21 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

12z HRRRx showing one heck of a contrast in temps from central to northern IA tomorrow.  Low 90s in central Iowa to 40s just north.  Overdone, but wow.

25irzew.jpg

That's a big boy gradient.  Talk about deep mixing in the warm sector.

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4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Victimized by the pneumonia front.  Gary went from 77 to 54 in 1 hour, and much of that drop probably happened very quickly.

Yes a friend was at Wrigley and said it went from 74 to 57 in a matter of minutes about the third inning.

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I think I got to 12ºC, extremely pathetic but I was fine with that because I didn't want the warmth to surge too far north (reason coming up). While this cold streak may be setting some type of record for consistency there is something I go by to determine how extraordinary this is: what date the first 20ºC or higher reading lands on. A bit arbitrary but I still like to use it. The UW Waterloo station has a contest for it and today was a close call: got to 18ºC as a high at 6:00 pm. What a relief, I hate those sneaky spikes that ruin the streak. What I've been waiting for years is unfolding with this stat in particular. The delay of the first 20ºC+ reading is in uncharted territory now since the inception of this station in 1998. Its never gone pass April 19th in 20 years but now for 2018 its definite and there is no end in sight because this pattern isn't heading for the door. I started an excel spreadsheet a few years ago from Kitchener to see what the first 20ºC or higher reading was for every year starting in 1914. The latest I've come across (I'm picking it up again past 1974) is May 13 during 1919. This is not Waterloo though but its close enough as I wanted a large dataset.

After the nail-biting period from 5-7 pm that temperature at UW just freefalled. I think it nearly dropped 2.5ºC in 15 minutes and within the hour got a 2C windchill!

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I was looking at Chicago temp records and found that they have had a high of 35F or lower only 10 times on/after April 16, with the vast majority of them happening in the 1800s or early 1900s. The last time it happened was 4/16/1961.

Given the airmass aloft and likelihood of considerable clouds, I think there is a shot to pull it off on Monday.  It could at least be a close call assuming there's not too much sun.  

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Very weird day. Very windy around noon, coming east in from London towards West Jeff there was a grass fire just burning away the grassy strip in the median and the smoke was messing with traffic on the westbound lanes, while directly to my south there is still a lake which is a flooded farm field. Then it is gets to near 80, and I just got woken up by thunder-there are a few pop up storms nearby-which was not called for. Just odd spring weather.

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10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Big bust potential here if this boundary sinks any farther south.  Almost a 30 degree difference on the HRRR between here and ORD 

HRRRCHI_sfc_temp_017.png.b0b8fe17c5ea2fe7e661ff0b2f1df780.png

Will be interested to see where the front sets up tomorrow. With that back door front coming down the lake and reaching as far inland as me, temps plunged over 30 degrees from 80 at 4pm to 48 by 9 with a chilly, brisk NE wind. Should get back in the 70’s tomorrow. Kind of a shock to the body when the temp is drastically different everytime you step outside lol. 

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28 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

Will be interested to see where the front sets up tomorrow. With that back door front coming down the lake and reaching as far inland as me, temps plunged over 30 degrees from 80 at 4pm to 48 by 9 with a chilly, brisk NE wind. Should get back in the 70’s tomorrow. Kind of a shock to the body when the temp is drastically different everytime you step outside lol. 

Yeah... temp here dropped quickly too with that boundary sagging south. It was nice to feel 70° for the first time in months - even if it was only for an hour or two. Tomorrow at one point looked to be a 70’s lock, but models have given that up as time passes - looks like we’ll be lucky to achieve 60° around my neck of the woods tomorrow, the warm front just can’t make it. 

 

IIRC... there was an article somewhere about warm fronts stalling at the I-80 corridor due to lake influence, etc. Climatology just doesn’t support it. I fully expect that it stays at the border and much of southern MI stays in the 50’s for max’s (except the bordering counties) - big bust as of the current forecast if that indeed pans out. Makes me question the southern extent of the icing potential for the weekend - NAM keeps pulling the big dog icing further south. Interesting indeed.

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