April 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

[doncat]

Wind is roaring...had a 45 mph gust at nearby mesonet.

[Stormlover74]

Definitely a 50-55 mph gust just now. Whole house is shaking

[bluewave]

46 minutes ago, doncat said:

Wind is roaring...had a 45 mph gust at nearby mesonet.

MMU has the strongest gust so far at 54 mph.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=KMMU

[Dan76]

When did these come about     

* Snow Squall Warning for...
Franklin County in northern New York...
Southeastern St. Lawrence County in northern New York...

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=Snow Squall Warning

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 44degs., or 5 or 6 degrees BN.

GFS/CMC/EURO---0Z's have no snow now or a trace here on April 6-7.  CMC likes the 10th.

[tim]

5 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

The next 8 days are averaging 44degs., or 5 or 6 degrees BN.

GFS/CMC/EURO---0Z's have no snow now or a trace here on April 6-7.  CMC likes the 10th.

..i like 12th & 13th onward..by then, hopefully, those BN become AN..i'll deal with the 

next to events but by then lets get on with spring.

[donsutherland1]

Even as the calendar advances deeper into April, a snowstorm will be moving off the East Coast early this coming weekend. Overnight, the guidance shifted the accumulating snows largely south of the region, perhaps as it picked up on a stronger short wave (sub-1000 mb) moving into Quebec than had been modeled previously. It’s still too soon to rule out a measurable snowfall in the region. The earlier idea that the heaviest snow would likely fall from central New Jersey southward rather than north of the City has not changed, but the northern extent of the accumulating snow has pushed southward on the overnight model runs.

At this time, the GFS and ECMWF are indicating that both Baltimore and Washington, DC could pick up several inches of snow. Such an outcome would be very uncommon for both cities. If some of the modeling is accurate, both cities could see among their biggest snowfalls after April 5.

To put that into historic perspective, Baltimore has only seen only two storms produce 1” or more snow after April 5. Washington, DC has seen five such storms.

The biggest post-April 5 snowstorms for both cities are:

Baltimore:
1. 5.0", April 10-11, 1894 and 4/8-9/1916
3. 0.7", April 9, 1985
4. 0.4", April 13, 1957 and April 12, 1959
6. 0.3", April 7-8, 1972
7. 0.2", April 9, 2000 and April 7, 2007
9. 0.1", April 28, 1898 and April 6, 1990

A total of 10 storms brought measurable snowfall to Baltimore after April 5.

Washington, DC:
1. 4.0", April 6, 1889
2. 3.0", April 11-12, 1918
3. 2.0", April 11, 1894
4. 1.8", April 8-9, 1916
5. 1.5", April 9, 1917
6. 0.8", April 6-7, 1907
7. 0.6", April 9, 1907 and April 7, 1972
9. 0.5", April 28, 1898, April 14-15, 1923, and April 12-13, 1940

The guidance is in increasing agreement that a much warmer pattern will develop late next week. The temperature could soar into the 70s toward the end of next week.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

4/4 44.6° (3.9° below normal)
4/5 43.5°-44.3° (4/4 estimate: 43.4°-44.6°)
4/10 41.8°-44.8° (4/4 estimate: 41.9°-45.5°)

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an below normal monthly anomaly: 53% (4/4 estimate: 54%)

[SnoSki14]

38 minutes ago, tim said:

..i like 12th & 13th onward..by then, hopefully, those BN become AN..i'll deal with the 

next to events but by then lets get on with spring.

We might go straight to summer if those Euro/EPS runs verify. It shows 80s by the 13/14.

[Rtd208]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

We might go straight to summer if those Euro/EPS runs verify. It shows 80s by the 13/14.

I certainly wouldn't be against that, I love snow but I am pretty much over it for this winter/spring. Bring on the hot/severe weather.

[bluewave]

This is the fewest number of days with 1" or more on the ground for so much snow out on Long Island. Only the 2010's could pull something like this off. Mild temps to record winter warmth after the first week of January. Followed by so much snow in meteorological and astronomical spring.

ISP snowiest seasons and # of days with 1" or more on the ground with the DJF ave temp

73.5".....58 days....1996...31.4 F

68.0"....53 days....1978....27.1 F

65.9"....30 days....2018....34.3 F

63.7".....48 days....2015....29.0 F

63.7"....39 days....2014.....31.5 F

[North and West]

I’m looking forward to 70s and (hopefully) low humidity.


.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is the fewest number of days with 1" or more on the ground for so much snow out on Long Island. Only the 2010's could pull something like this off. Mild temps to record winter warmth after the first week of January. Followed by so much snow in meteorological and astronomical spring.

ISP snowiest seasons and # of days with 1" or more on the ground with the DJF ave temp

73.5".....58 days....1996...31.4F

68.0"....53 days....1978....27.1F

65.9"....30 days....2018....34.3F

63.7".....48 days....2015....30.0F

63.7"....39 days....2014.....31.5F

It surprises me that the winter of 2014/15 didn't have more days with snow cover in Islip. That was the winter New York city had 50 consecutive days of snow cover from January 24 to March 14, 44 of those days (Jan 27 to March 11) had at least a six-inch snow cover.

I know there were several other days before and after that stretch during that winter that they had snow cover although I never counted the total number of days.

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

It surprises me that the winter of 2014/15 didn't have more days with snow cover in Islip. That was the winter New York city had 50 consecutive days of snow cover from January 24 to March 14, 44 of those days (Jan 27 to March 11) had at least a six-inch snow cover.

I know there were several other days before and after that stretch during that winter that they had snow cover although I never counted the total number of days.

Does NYC measure snow depth in shaded areas of Central Park? That would explain NYC having more days with snow cover of an 1" or more since ISP is open.

[nzucker]

Just now, bluewave said:

Does NYC measure snow depth in shaded areas of Central Park? That would explain NYC having more days with snow cover of an 1" or more since ISP is open.

I'm always hesitant to use stats such as snow cover because both aspect of a reporting site and subjective measurements can make a big difference. 14-15 was one of the higher snow cover winters in recent memory.

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, nzucker said:

I'm always hesitant to use stats such as snow cover because both aspect of a reporting site and subjective measurements can make a big difference. 14-15 was one of the higher snow cover winters in recent memory.

All the major reporting sites during 14-15 were close to 50 days. But you can see how some shade may have helped Central Park out compared to EWR and LGA. It could have topped 60 days if the heavy snows didn't wait until the end of January to arrive. Only around 3.5" in NYC before the late January and 2.2" at ISP.

14-15 snow cover days with 1" or more

NYC....55 days

EWR...50 days

LGA....50 days

JFK....48 days

ISP....48 days

[nzucker]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

All the major reporting sites during 14-15 were close to 50 days. But you can see how some shade may have helped Central Park out compared to EWR and LGA. It could have topped 60 days if the heavy snows didn't wait until the end of January to arrive. Only around 3.5" in NYC before the late January and 2.2" at ISP.

14-15 snow cover days with 1" or more

NYC....55 days

EWR...50 days

LGA....50 days

JFK....48 days

ISP....48 days

Yes, the heavy snow came a bit late in both 14-15 and 13-14 to maximize depth. Once we get beyond mid-February, it melts fast regardless of what falls. This year at ISP is the extreme with much of the snow falling 3/21 and 4/2.

10-11 was perfectly timed for heavy snow cover with the biggest snows 12/27, 1/12, and 1/27. That December actually could have been a bit better for snow cover, though, as it was -4F in temps but we had nothing except a weak arctic front until Boxing Day.

[NorthShoreWx]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

This is the fewest number of days with 1" or more on the ground for so much snow out on Long Island. Only the 2010's could pull something like this off. Mild temps to record winter warmth after the first week of January. Followed by so much snow in meteorological and astronomical spring.

ISP snowiest seasons and # of days with 1" or more on the ground with the DJF ave temp

73.5".....58 days....1996...31.4 F

68.0"....53 days....1978....27.1 F

65.9"....30 days....2018....34.3 F

63.7".....48 days....2015....29.0 F

63.7"....39 days....2014.....31.5 F

There is something odd about the snow measurements at ISP.  They've been raking it in but it disappears very quickly.  The difference in 2014 is especially noticeable.  I am 10 miles NW of ISP and here are my stats for comparison:

65.1"....42 days....2018

67.0".....62 days....2015

68.0"....64 days....2014

 

[bluewave]

30 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

There is something odd about the snow measurements at ISP.  They've been raking it in but it disappears very quickly.  The difference in 2014 is especially noticeable.  I am 10 miles NW of ISP and here are my stats for comparison:

65.1"....42 days....2018

67.0".....62 days....2015

68.0"....64 days....2014

 

Could be that the airport is wide open with more concrete and your area is more sheltered and greener. I often notice how the snow cover hangs on the longest on the visible satellite in your area. Seems like the snow cover likes to linger once you get closer to 25.

[Paragon]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Could be that the airport is wide open with more concrete and your area is more sheltered and greener. I often notice how the snow cover hangs on the longest on the visible satellite in your area. Seems like the snow cover likes to linger once you get closer to 25.

Even if we get the most snow down here the snow is gone within 24 hrs, even 12 hrs sometimes.  I attribute that to higher urbanization.  Last Monday's snow was completely gone well before sunset.

[Paragon]

5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Even as the calendar advances deeper into April, a snowstorm will be moving off the East Coast early this coming weekend. Overnight, the guidance shifted the accumulating snows largely south of the region, perhaps as it picked up on a stronger short wave (sub-1000 mb) moving into Quebec than had been modeled previously. It’s still too soon to rule out a measurable snowfall in the region. The earlier idea that the heaviest snow would likely fall from central New Jersey southward rather than north of the City has not changed, but the northern extent of the accumulating snow has pushed southward on the overnight model runs.

At this time, the GFS and ECMWF are indicating that both Baltimore and Washington, DC could pick up several inches of snow. Such an outcome would be very uncommon for both cities. If some of the modeling is accurate, both cities could see among their biggest snowfalls after April 5.

To put that into historic perspective, Baltimore has only seen only two storms produce 1” or more snow after April 5. Washington, DC has seen five such storms.

The biggest post-April 5 snowstorms for both cities are:

Baltimore:
1. 5.0", April 10-11, 1894 and 4/8-9/1916
3. 0.7", April 9, 1985
4. 0.4", April 13, 1957 and April 12, 1959
6. 0.3", April 7-8, 1972
7. 0.2", April 9, 2000 and April 7, 2007
9. 0.1", April 28, 1898 and April 6, 1990

A total of 10 storms brought measurable snowfall to Baltimore after April 5.

Washington, DC:
1. 4.0", April 6, 1889
2. 3.0", April 11-12, 1918
3. 2.0", April 11, 1894
4. 1.8", April 8-9, 1916
5. 1.5", April 9, 1917
6. 0.8", April 6-7, 1907
7. 0.6", April 9, 1907 and April 7, 1972
9. 0.5", April 28, 1898, April 14-15, 1923, and April 12-13, 1940

The guidance is in increasing agreement that a much warmer pattern will develop late next week. The temperature could soar into the 70s toward the end of next week.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

4/4 44.6° (3.9° below normal)
4/5 43.5°-44.3° (4/4 estimate: 43.4°-44.6°)
4/10 41.8°-44.8° (4/4 estimate: 41.9°-45.5°)

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an below normal monthly anomaly: 53% (4/4 estimate: 54%)

Don what say you about one final snowfall event before the warm air comes in- Tuesday-Wednesday snow maybe?

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Could be that the airport is wide open with more concrete and your area is more sheltered and greener. I often notice how the snow cover hangs on the longest on the visible satellite in your area. Seems like the snow cover likes to linger once you get closer to 25.

I think it’s because the pitch of the land is down twords the sound on the backside of the terminal moraine. Less solar insulation and thus less melting 

[winterwx21]

80 degrees next saturday? Looks possible.

[BrooklynSnow]

33 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

80 degrees next saturday? Looks possible.

I hope so!!  It's freezing out today! 

 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The Euro has had several warm ups in the 6-10 range recently that verified cooler. Warm front locations can be tricky to forecast that far out in the early spring.

 

 

Good point, it definitely backed off somewhat today. We're not too far off from a backdoor like pattern actually. 

However I think we'll see our first 70+ readings since Feb.

[Paragon]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The Euro has had several warm ups in the 6-10 range recently that verified cooler. Warm front locations can be tricky to forecast that far out in the early spring.

 

 

When we had that 4" storm here in April 1996, like two days later it was 83 degrees.

[JerseyWx]

3 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

80 degrees next saturday? Looks possible.

I don't think so, have to keep an eye on the EPS though.

[donsutherland1]

4 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

80 degrees next saturday? Looks possible.

80 is probably too high. Low 70s are possible.

[NorthShoreWx]

8 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I think it’s because the pitch of the land is down twords the sound on the backside of the terminal moraine. Less solar insulation and thus less melting 

On the average, the land tilts north north of the morraine,  but there's something more to it than that.  Maybe better freezing at night?

By the way, the main reason the snow melted out faster in Nassau the other day is because they had an hour or two more sunshine...and that hour or two was right in the middle of the day

[nzucker]

Central Park may get a hard freeze on Sunday morning, 4/8. Would that be significantly later than the 2000s average last freeze?

 

[RedSky]

10 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

80 degrees next saturday? Looks possible.

Canadian has snow