MJO812 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: Euro is close but its rather warm Euro is way better than the other models. Eps is also more north. This is most likely coming more northwest. The 1st storm has more cold air than the 2nd storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 44degs., or 6degs., BN. Both the GFS/CMC have about 3" on April 6-7. EURO likes southern path and gives bottom half of NJ 6", we are on northern edge of a narrow swath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Euro is way better than the other models. Eps is also more north. This is most likely coming more northwest. The 1st storm has more cold air than the 2nd storm. I'm not sure if this will end up more NW, the first shortwave drags the baroclinic zone further s&e. I wouldn't be surprised if this stays south or trends even further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I'm not sure if this will end up more NW, the first shortwave drags the baroclinic zone further s&e. I wouldn't be surprised if this stays south or trends even further south. Based off what ? Gfs is now more northwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Ahead of a strong cold front, temperatures will rise into the upper 50s in northern parts of the region and 60s elsewhere across much of the New York City Metro Area today. However, a line of showers or even thundershowers will move through the region late this morning or early this afternoon. Once that happens, the temperature will fall sharply. Toward midnight, readings will likely in the upper 30s and lower 40s. Even as the cold returns, the 500 mb pattern remains similar to some of those that resulted in April snowfalls in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. While the kind of strong 500 mb ridge that was present just south of Alaska in April 1982 is lacking this time around, there are broad similarities to the upper air pattern that preceded the spring blizzard. One should not assume a similar outcome to 1982 in which New York City and New England received widespread 8” or greater snowfalls, along with blizzard conditions. Instead, the broad similarities and differences, when taken together, imply the possibility of a storm that could take a track east-northeastward to northeastward out to sea rather than coming north-northeastward up the coast. In addition, the air mass involved is nowhere near as cold as the record cold air mass involved in 1982. Nevertheless, there could be a stripe of moderate snowfall just to the north of the storm track. Thus, at least a measurable snowfall remains within the realm of possibility for parts of the region during Saturday afternoon and Saturday night (with 1”-3” looking reasonable in New York City and nearby northern suburbs. The largest accumulations could occur from central or southern New Jersey and southward. There, 3”-6” amounts could be commonplace. In that area, some sites could pick up 8” of snow. Finally, the EPS continues to suggest that a period of warmer than normal weather could arrive near mid-month. The potential for New York City to reach 70° for the first time since February 21 during that time is on the table. New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 4/3 43.5° (4.8° below normal) 4/5 43.4°-44.6° (4/3 estimate: 43.2°-46.8°) 4/10 41.9°-45.5° (4/3 estimate: 42.7°-47.8°) Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an below normal monthly anomaly: 54% (4/3 estimate: 53%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 When talking about April 6, 1982, you should always mention the El Chichon volcanic eruption of late March, in Mexico. It cooled the NH and added particulate matter to it, for precipitation to form more easily. It was given at the time as the causative factor in the severity of this out of season event. There was a brownish-yellow streak to the our blue skies, visible at the time. The storm had a Blizzard Warning in effect for NYC. The snow fell during the daytime, roughly 4AM---6PM. The temperature must have been under 32 for a 24 hour period sometime between April 6-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Unfortunately the area of snow looks small. I cannot really see a scenario where if PHL ends up with 8 inches it ends up well for NYC and vice versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 37 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said: Unfortunately the area of snow looks small. I cannot really see a scenario where if PHL ends up with 8 inches it ends up well for NYC and vice versa. Still too early to say this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Still too early to say this The navgem looks perfect for NYC. I don't have maps for that model but just the precip but I would guess it would be a 6-12 inch snows for NYC and even Boston gets in the action. Philly does well also. DC could have mixing issues but just northwest of there could get a foot. Let's say Leesburg. Btw navgem has NYC snowing (moderate-heavy snow) from roughly 8pm Saturday until 8am Sunday. Probably the most interesting part about that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, NewYorkweatherfan said: The navgem looks perfect for NYC. I don't have maps for that model but just the precip but I would guess it would be a 6-12 inch snows for NYC and even Boston gets in the action. Philly does well also. DC could have mixing issues but just northwest of there could get a foot. Let's say Leesburg. Btw navgem has NYC snowing (moderate-heavy snow) from roughly 8pm Saturday until 8am Sunday. Probably the most interesting part about that run. Navgem is less amped than 0z but more amped than the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, NewYorkweatherfan said: The navgem looks perfect for NYC. I don't have maps for that model but just the precip but I would guess it would be a 6-12 inch snows for NYC and even Boston gets in the action. Philly does well also. DC could have mixing issues but just northwest of there could get a foot. Let's say Leesburg. Btw navgem has NYC snowing (moderate-heavy snow) from roughly 8pm Saturday until 8am Sunday. Probably the most interesting part about that run. I have been watching this closely for days ,,starting the drive back to NYC from Florida on Saturday A M ,,,,gut tells me this keeps creeping northward as it gets closer to game time its been the trend all winter, timing sucks right now for me ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Navgem is less amped than 0z but more amped than the other models. It is less amped but its a perfect run for us. The 0z run looked like more than half was rain very warm run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: I have been watching this closely for days ,,starting the drive back to NYC from Florida on Saturday A M ,,,,gut tells me this keeps creeping northward as it gets closer to game time its been the trend all winter, timing sucks right now for me ! Take a flight in time for the snow event haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 1 minute ago, NewYorkweatherfan said: Take a flight in time for the snow event haha I wish it was an option,,but it AINT ! Just a matter of checking models and trying to figure out the timing, even if I leave Friday nite that appears right now to not work out,,,Friday morning might be the option,,,,Im going to keep checking models and what guys that know more than myself think,,,tough call right now on timing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 New storm thread created https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51182-april-7-8-2018-snowstorm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 The main story today will be the strong winds. First, a fine line of convection may be able to bring down some stronger gusts. Behind the front, there will be deep CAA mixing to 800 mb. This will produce widespread gusts near 50 mph with some spots possibly approaching 60 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 ^^Uggh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Upgraded to a high wind warning here in Western Bergen County for wind gusts to 60MPH this afternoon and tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 12 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Up to 53 here...will get warm just before frontal passage, regardless back in 30s by tonight. Also was very foggy here up till about 11 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Just now, doncat said: Up to 53 here...will get warm just before frontal passage, regardless back in 30s by tonight. Yeah I think we could hit 60 very briefly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 34 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Yeah I think we could hit 60 very briefly It'll be close but front is already on our doorstep. Temps have struggled to rise a few times already near + north of the fall line this spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Large severe thunderstorm warning up in NJ/SEPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyg Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, Rjay said: Large severe thunderstorm warning up in NJ/SEPA Par for the course. South Jersey has been SVR central in recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 46 in Totowa, NJ; skies to the west are much darker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Warm front never made it here...54° for the high...some showers 0.08"...now at 51°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 13 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Euro? Check the storm thread. I think it was a general 3-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Amazing how the hits just keep comin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Winds really starting to gust right now. Some good 35-40 mph winds coming through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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