April 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

[MJO812]

Navy is a huge coastal hugger

Deep thunder has 6+ for the area

[SnowLover22]

37 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Navy is a huge coastal hugger

Deep thunder has 6+ for the area

Maps?

[Santa Claus]

I wanna see some replies, who else loves these late night cold(ish) season warm fronts?  The fog, stillness, relative warm air.  Feels like a treat.

[NewYorkweatherfan]

Nam looks way north of other guidance

[Nibor]

10 minutes ago, NewYorkweatherfan said:

Nobody here everybody is a snow fiend

There is more to be fascinated by and appreciate than just snow.

[North and West]

I wanna see some replies, who else loves these late night cold(ish) season warm fronts?  The fog, stillness, relative warm air.  Feels like a treat.

Always strange. I like nighttime (non-severe) thunderstorms, too.


.

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

11 minutes ago, NewYorkweatherfan said:

Nam looks way north of other guidance

Yup this is definitely coming north on the globals at 0z. No way southern VA gets 6"+ in mid April. I like where our subforum stands for this one. If I had to make a preliminary call I'd say 2-4" for the area with high elevations pulling 4-8" Obviously those numbers will change but I think it's a good starting point. I like this threat. 

[Santa Claus]

25 minutes ago, North and West said:

Always strange. I like nighttime (non-severe) thunderstorms, too.


.

 

Yes exactly.  Even when it's forecasted it feels like something you got that you weren't expecting.

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

As expected, heights are higher on the 0z GFS, she is definitely coming a bit north of 18z. 

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

She's going negative. Great hit incoming. 

[Neblizzard]

6 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

She's going negative. Great hit incoming. 

For south NJ . Still time for this to come north 

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

Cold air crushes it at the last minute and prevents the nuke. Weird. Run was looking great. Nice and cold run for the area though with a widespread 2-5". We are in a good spot at this point. 

[Rtd208]

The cold air coming in is a concern for suppression but once again I am inclined to go with the seasonal trend of this coming further north/stronger as we get closer to the event.

[SnowGoose69]

This one my hunch is won't be for the coast.  Its inland or nobody.  I think either its too flat and the rates are not there and mostly the coast sees precip but its not enough to get it done or it goes very amped and is an inland event.

[sferic]

12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This one my hunch is won't be for the coast.  Its inland or nobody.  I think either its too flat and the rates are not there and mostly the coast sees precip but its not enough to get it done or it goes very amped and is an inland event.

Snowgoose, which storm are you referring to, Friday/sat or sunday/Monday?

[nzucker]

13 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This one my hunch is won't be for the coast.  Its inland or nobody.  I think either its too flat and the rates are not there and mostly the coast sees precip but its not enough to get it done or it goes very amped and is an inland event.

I like the follow-up threat, which should be the final frozen event of the season, more than the weekend storm in terms of significant potential for the coast. The 4/11 threat, despite being late on the calendar, has a Miller A look with a trough going negative in the MS Valley and sending a low off the OBX/Capes. Has a nice arctic high to the north with good confluence due to the -EPO block.

I do think the weekend event is still possible. If it tracks well south of us, we could see 2-4" on the northern periphery, with decent ratios due to low-level cold. Similar to the 4/2 event and how Sullivan County saw 4" despite only around 0.25" LE.

[nzucker]

GFS shows a 996mb low south of LI with the 4/10 threat. Close to a monster hit, verbatim snow to rain.

EDIT: Maybe goes back to some light snow at the end. Was a tad disjointed,but def a lot of potential for a Miller A.

[SnowGoose69]

26 minutes ago, nzucker said:

I like the follow-up threat, which should be the final frozen event of the season, more than the weekend storm in terms of significant potential for the coast. The 4/11 threat, despite being late on the calendar, has a Miller A look with a trough going negative in the MS Valley and sending a low off the OBX/Capes. Has a nice arctic high to the north with good confluence due to the -EPO block.

I do think the weekend event is still possible. If it tracks well south of us, we could see 2-4" on the northern periphery, with decent ratios due to low-level cold. Similar to the 4/2 event and how Sullivan County saw 4" despite only around 0.25" LE.

I also like that 2nd event better

[Paragon]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I also like that 2nd event better

I find it extremely hard to believe that suppression would be a problem this late in the season.  Getting three moderate 3-6 inch snowfalls in April would be amazing, what do you think are the chances for that?  The event on the 10th could be like the April 1996 event, except hopefully more precip on the western side this time.

[Wetbulbs88]

Euro?

[Paragon]

18 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

 Someone correct me if I'm wrong because I may be, but I thought the April 9-10, 1996 at KNYC was recorded as 0.7.

Actually there was at least a couple of inches at various times in Manhattan during that storm that were subsequently washed away, when the precip would go from heavy rain to heavy snow back and forth during most of the event. There was most likely a max depth of 2-3 inches at some point in Central Park that was never recorded, what a shock.

Events like the April 9-10 and of course the January 1996 blizzard, recorded as a ridiculous 20.2 inches in Central Park when anyone paying attention at that time recorded anywhere from 24-26 inches in Central Park, some even say 28, is why KNYC did not get in the 80-85 range which would have been a better representation of that winter rather than the official 75.6 record.

I meticulously measured snowfall that winter, for some reason I thought it would be a big snowfall winter for us, and I came up with 83 " on the winter here in SW Nassau.  The April 10 1996 event was all snow here, dont know why the city itself saw any rain- I'm only a few miles from the Queens line on the south shore.  The JFK number of 69 inches was also ridiculously low.

[Paragon]

8 hours ago, Rjay said:

Yup.  Also the November snow storm after Sandy brought down a bunch of trees in my area.

that was an 8 incher around here

[terrapin8100]

26 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Euro?

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018040400/new-jersey/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20180408-1200z.html

[SnowGoose69]

Euro is close but its rather warm

[NewYorkweatherfan]

Euro is a bit warm because it gives us crappy rates snowgoose but believe me we are close to a huge storm here and I disagree here with what you were saying inland or nothing this has big potential... hugeee

Northern NJ gets brushed, 2-4 for manhattan and Bronx 4-6 for queens n Brooklyn islip 8-10 and higher totals in southern New Jersey. This is trending north and it’ll stop right at the New York City area. In my opinion this will be another NYC jackpot

[Paragon]

19 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

 Someone correct me if I'm wrong because I may be, but I thought the April 9-10, 1996 at KNYC was recorded as 0.7.

Actually there was at least a couple of inches at various times in Manhattan during that storm that were subsequently washed away, when the precip would go from heavy rain to heavy snow back and forth during most of the event. There was most likely a max depth of 2-3 inches at some point in Central Park that was never recorded, what a shock.

Events like the April 9-10 and of course the January 1996 blizzard, recorded as a ridiculous 20.2 inches in Central Park when anyone paying attention at that time recorded anywhere from 24-26 inches in Central Park, some even say 28, is why KNYC did not get in the 80-85 range which would have been a better representation of that winter rather than the official 75.6 record.

Wow, that 4/19-20/1983 storm was over 4" in EWR?  Why was nothing recorded at NYC?  Even JFK had like 2 inches with that one.

[doncat]

[Paragon]

10 minutes ago, terrapin8100 said:

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018040400/new-jersey/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20180408-1200z.html

is that the water equivalent of snow or snowfall itself (10:1 ratios)

[Paragon]

4 minutes ago, doncat said:

Why do these maps always screw over the south shore of LI? It makes no sense that central coastal NJ would have 8 inches while the south shore of LI would only have 0.4 lol...wow and close to 20" down around Millville over to ACY.  This reminds me of that April 1910 event I think it was where Philly got 20" and NYC got 10"

[doncat]

^^^ It's often just a problem of the model thinking those coastal areas are actually in the ocean lol...depends on what sites snow maps you use...some depict it better.