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April 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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12z GFS very close with saturday's storm. A significant snowstorm for the southern half of NJ and gets a couple inches up to NYC. GGEM a little south of GFS with snow for extreme southern NJ. Definitely have to like where we stand right now if you want more snow. Just need a slight bump north and we know what the seasonal trend is.

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2 hours ago, doncat said:

39° currently with light rain.

This is the 31st day for NYC from 2/1 to 4/3 with measurable precipitation. It's in 3rd place for the most days on record. Latest guidance continues this really active storm track theme for the whole run.

2/1-4/3 days with measurable precipitation in NYC:

#1....33 days...1884

#2....32...........1950....1936

#3....31............2018

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On 4/2/2018 at 6:29 PM, bluewave said:

2010, 2011, and 2012 were probably the most extreme 3 years in a row for tree damage around the region. Mar 2010 Noreaster...Sep 2010 NYC Macroburst and tornado...Aug 2011 Irene..Oct 2011 snowstorm...Oct 2012 Sandy. 

Yup.  Also the November snow storm after Sandy brought down a bunch of trees in my area.

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with the AO on the rise and gaining by this weekend, the first wave should lift a bit quicker than currently modeled, allowing for a quicker drop of the retrograded SW to dive down into the CONUS and orientate our trough neutral, and just maybe Neg, the southern stream seems to be just fine with intensity/location, and models have been trending more amplified in that regard, i wouldnt be making any bold claims in either direction just yet, until we see how the friday wave is panning out come thursday mornin into Fri, this has last min bump north written in Dark ink

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