April 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

[MJO812]

29 minutes ago, snow1 said:

Models are still changing for next week. We need to give it time. But seeing the euro south doesn’t help much

Actually it does because it had been south with every coastal storm this past winter.

[Rjay]

3 hours ago, Snow88 said:

8-12 inches for next weekend for the coast.

I'm going to guess you're talking about the 18z gfs but most people would take this as a prediction.  

[Ace]

Pretty far out, but next weekend has decent potential. AO rising argues for a storm to form and the antecedent air mass is pretty good. The problem is that blocking is breaking down fast by the time this storm forms. The 12Z GFS flipped most of us over to rain because the upper level low over SE Canada moved away quickly allowing heights to raise along the east coast thereby allowing the storm to go a bit too far west for us. I'm also not a fan of the shortwave crashing into the west coast as our storm is getting going. Not the best setup, but we can work with it.

[dWave]

9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

From the New York Botanical Garden this afternoon. Today could wind up becoming NYC's 4th day in the last 2 years where 60° readings were followed by measurable snowfall.

Some cherry blossom trees around me are blooming, the rest are on the brink. I suppose its safe to assume they will be toast tomorrow? Kinda sucks, since many of these trees are relatively new, planted by the city. It pretty nice when they are blooming together. However last yr they got ruined, and this yr seems to be on the same path. False spring in Feb then cold/snow. They have fared better than last yr though. There are some varieties I see that usually bloom later anyway, those are safe at least.

[snow1]

Suppression city on the gfs for next week

[Ace]

The GFS and GGEM are suppressed for next weekend. Not surprising with that upper level low in SE Canada hanging back a bit more. Less separation between our two key players means suppression city

[Rtd208]

I doubt next weekend winds up suppressed. I am inclined to go with the seasonal north trend.

[Paragon]

On 3/31/2018 at 9:09 AM, donsutherland1 said:

It's forecast to be a remarkable pattern, especially if it delivers. The last time Central Park had two days with measurable snowfall in April was 1996 (April 9-10). Before that, the last occasion was 1942 (April 9-10). The last time Central Park had three days with measurable snowfall in April occurred in 1918 (April 11, 12, 13).

Don can you check JFK, I think they had 8" on 4/6 and 1" on 4/9 in 1982.

 

Also looks like we could get a noreaster with snow next Tuesday?  That would make for three separate events.

[ncforecaster89]

1 hour ago, Paragon said:

Don can you check JFK, I think they had 8" on 4/6 and 1" on 4/9 in 1982.

 

Also looks like we could get a noreaster with snow next Tuesday?  That would make for three separate events.

Hi Paragon, JFK officially recorded 0.2" on 4/9/82.  Not 1", but measurable snowfall, nonetheless.   

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, snow1 said:

Suppression city on the gfs for next week

The gfs shifts 100s of miles from one run to the next, it's pretty much useless until we get under 72 hrs. 

That arctic like front though looks really impressive for April. 

[donsutherland1]

Yesterday saw high temperatures reach 60° at Islip and New York City and 63° in Newark. This morning a storm is bringing accumulating snow to much of the region. The potential exists for this storm to be the biggest April snowstorm since April 7, 2003.

Since 1869, New York City had two April cases where measurable snowfall followed a 60° or warmer day. On April 11, 1940, the temperature topped out at 60°. A day later, NYC received 1.3” snow (and a two-day total of 1.8”). On April 8, 2000, the mercury soared to 71°. On April 9, 1.2” snow fell.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

4/1 51.5° (3.5° above normal)
4/5 45.2°-48.8° (4/1 estimate: 45.7°-50.5°)
4/10 44.0°-48.8° (4/1 estimate: 44.4°-49.8°)

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an below normal monthly anomaly: 52% (4/1 estimate: 52°)

[donsutherland1]

5 hours ago, Paragon said:

Don can you check JFK, I think they had 8" on 4/6 and 1" on 4/9 in 1982.

 

Also looks like we could get a noreaster with snow next Tuesday?  That would make for three separate events.

April 1982 snowfalls at JFK were: 4/4 Trace; 4/6 8.0"; 4/9 0.2"

[CIK62]

Next 8 days averaging 45degs., or 3 or 4 degs, BN.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Here's the problem today as I see it for getting an accurate total from Central Park.

The Conservancy seems to take measurements at 7:00 or 8:00 am and doesn't take another one until 1PM. As soon as the snow lightens up compression and melting will begin and measurements will become inaccurate and low as each hour passes.

According to NWS guidelines (which I disagree with but that argument is for another day) you take the maximum depth for the day as the official total. The Conservancy most likely will never catch that moment, and another historic, for the time of year, snowfall will go unrecognized. I hope I'm wrong but I probably won't be.

 

[bluewave]

With the snowstorm today, we add to the growing list of 2010's top 10 snowiest months across the area. The 2010's have produced top snowiest months during October, November, December, January, February, March, and now April. Several months have had multiple top 10 finishes including new #1's.The only thing left that we haven't been able to replicate the May 1977 trace of snow.

[nycwinter]

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Here's the problem today as I see it for getting an accurate total from Central Park.

The Conservancy seems to take measurements at 7:00 or 8:00 am and doesn't take another one until 1PM. As soon as the snow lightens up compression and melting will begin and measurements will become inaccurate and low as each hour passes.

According to NWS guidelines (which I disagree with but that argument is for another day) you take the maximum depth for the day as the official total. The Conservancy most likely will never catch that moment, and another historic, for the time of year, snowfall will go unrecognized. I hope I'm wrong but I probably won't be.

 

i have complained about that for a long time why the 6 hours between snow measurements....in central park...

[donsutherland1]

With 4.8" snow, Central Park has experienced its biggest April snowstorm since April 6, 1982 when 9.6" fell. In addition, Central Park's seasonal snowfall has reached 40.2".

Winter 2017-18 is now the 7th out of 8 winters since 1950 that saw 40" or more snow following a December snowstorm that brought 4" or more snow to Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50504-december-2017-discussions-observations-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4695288

The most recent such winter was winter 2009-10.

[nycwinter]

we are over 5 inches for sure but probably will never have that number listed as the final accumulation by the nws due to their way of measuring the snow..every 6 hours...

[nycwinter]

7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

With 4.8" snow, Central Park has experienced its biggest April snowstorm since April 6, 1982 when 9.6" fell. In addition, Central Park's seasonal snowfall has reached 40.2".

Winter 2017-18 is now the 7th out of 8 winters since 1950 that saw 40" or more snow following a December snowstorm that brought 4" or more snow to Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50504-december-2017-discussions-observations-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4695288

The most recent such winter was winter 2009-10.

i'm shocked we got to 40 inches in the park considering all the missed big chances we have had...

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

With 4.8" snow, Central Park has experienced its biggest April snowstorm since April 6, 1982 when 9.6" fell. In addition, Central Park's seasonal snowfall has reached 40.2".

Winter 2017-18 is now the 7th out of 8 winters since 1950 that saw 40" or more snow following a December snowstorm that brought 4" or more snow to Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50504-december-2017-discussions-observations-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4695288

The most recent such winter was winter 2009-10.

We might blow that away if the weekend storm comes back.

 

I got close to 17 inches in March and April combined and 12 inches since spring started.

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

we are over 5 inches for sure but probably will never have that number listed as the final accumulation by the nws due to their way of measuring the snow..every 6 hours...

A measurement is also supposed to be taken when the snow stops falling.

[Rtd208]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

We might blow that away if the weekend storm comes back.

 

I got close to 17 inches in March and April combined and 12 inches since spring started.

Honestly I think it will, we have seen these southern solutions correct north time and time again during the winter, its possible that this one doesn't but I would rather go with the seasonal trend if I was a betting man. I would give it a couple of days yet and then see where things stand on the potential weekend event.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Rtd208 said:

Honestly I think it will, we have seen these southern solutions correct north time and time again during the winter, its possible that this one doesn't but I would rather go with the seasonal trend if I was a betting man. I would give it a couple of days yet and then see where things stand on the potential weekend event.

This current storm came back

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

A measurement is also supposed to be taken when the snow stops falling.

Of course it is, but in Central Park that's a 50-50 proposition at best.

[donsutherland1]

Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Of course it is, but in Central Park that's a 50-50 proposition at best.

We agree. Hopefully, NWS will remind the Conservancy to take a final measurement, as this will be one of the City's larger April snowstorms.

[donsutherland1]

7 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

We might blow that away if the weekend storm comes back.

 

I got close to 17 inches in March and April combined and 12 inches since spring started.

There's still plenty of time for such an outcome.

[nycwinter]

8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

A measurement is also supposed to be taken when the snow stops falling.

then why do they wait so long to announce the next snow totals even hours after the precip is gone for good?

[donsutherland1]

For reference, below is a list of 4” or greater April snowfalls in New York City (1869-2018)

April 13-14, 1875: 10.0”
April 9, 1907: 5.0”
April 3-4, 1915: 10.0”
April 8-9, 1917: 6.5”
April 1, 1924: 8.5”
April 6-7, 1938: 6.4”
April 5, 1944: 6.5”
April 8, 1956: 4.2”
April 6, 1982: 9.6”
April 7, 2003: 4.0”
April 2, 2018: 4.8” (through 8 am) – 9th largest April snowfall on record

 

[donsutherland1]

45 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

then why do they wait so long to announce the next snow totals even hours after the precip is gone for good?

I'm not sure. Perhaps part of the reason is that the snow can end several hours later on eastern Long Island than in other parts of the area. I never really paid much attention to the timing of such reports.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I'm not sure. Perhaps part of the reason is that the snow can end several hours later on eastern Long Island than in other parts of the area. I never really paid much attention to the timing of such reports.

I actually have followed and badgered them about it for many, many years and a day like today if they wait until one o'clock that 4.8 will stand when it's probably closer to 6. They've worn me down through the years though and I've come to expect their lackadaisical attitude or incompetence, take your pick.