April 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Looks like a great stretch from tomorrow through next Tuesday-dry and sunny

Hard to believe that it's April 19th and NYC still has fewer spring 60 degree days than the winter had. NYC had 9 days of 60 or greater DJF and still just 8 for MAM through April 19th.  The 16-17 winter had 9 days also. But we were already at 18 days of 60 or warmer by 4-19-17.

[Rtd208]

Interesting. 

 

[CIK62]

6 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Interesting. 

 

Agrees with Rossby Wave Train for this period except in southeast and along east coast.    It has no preference there.  For us slight AN bias, but heights are suppose to be normal.    Upper mid-west is BN, not near normal.   Best agreement is in the southwest between these possible 90-day outcomes.

[doncat]

With some rain moving back in, it looks like the midnight 47° reading will be the high temp....Normal is 63°. Current temp 43°.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, doncat said:

With some rain moving back in, it looks like the midnight 47° reading will be the high temp....Normal is 63°. Current temp 43°.

NYC is now in 1st place for greatest number of days with a high below 50 degrees 3/1-4/19 since 1950. Long term record is 40 days in 1887.

NYC days with a high below 50 3/1-4/19 since 1950.

#1...32 days 2018

#2...31 days 1960

MAXIMUM         49   1201 AM  -14  

[dWave]

6 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Interesting. 

 

If that turns out accurate we wont have much of a spring at all this year. Just flip to summer at some point. 

[CIK62]

Improvement at least over the next two weeks:

Should yield temps. in the low 60's to 70 degrees late.  Model has little precip. in week 2.

 

[gravitylover]

Ice pellets/sleet/snow falling sideways at 38*. Ahh springtime 

[MJO812]

53 minutes ago, dWave said:

If that turns out accurate we wont have much of a spring at all this year. Just flip to summer at some point. 

Always happens

[Rtd208]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The new EPS weeklies continue the Western ridge and Eastern trough pattern into May. I guess the good news for spring fans is that the May means are about 10 degrees warmer than April. So a cool pattern into May is still getting warmer than April was.

Precipitation?

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Another raw evening. I’m getting sick of this. This is to be expected in early March not the end of April 

[NewYorkweatherfan]

On 4/18/2018 at 7:29 AM, bluewave said:

Mostly just a shift in the blocking patterns following the record MJO and strat warming event.

I disagree, this colder than normal weather will persist into June because the volcanos from last year. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vox.com/platform/amp/energy-and-environment/2017/11/28/16712234/bali-volcano-eruption-agung-climate

https://scied.ucar.edu/shortcontent/how-volcanoes-influence-climate

[Morris]

38 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Another raw evening. I’m getting sick of this. This is to be expected in early March not the end of April 

Loving it. 

[NewYorkweatherfan]

On 4/19/2018 at 8:26 PM, Morris said:

Loving it. 

I’d rather this than 90 degree April’s.

this weather you sleep like a baby! And you know the real heat is far away! 2 more months of losing nighttime.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

26 minutes ago, NewYorkweatherfan said:

I’d rather this than 90 degree April’s.

this weather you sleep like a baby! And you know the real heat is far away! 2 more months of losing nighttime.

I can gaurentee neither of you guys work outside. My issue is we are loosing one of two of the best periods to work outside. April and October. Nothing is better then a day in the 60s. I’ll pass on 90s just like I’ll pass on 40s. In winter, I love snow so much I’m willing to freeze.

[NewYorkweatherfan]

21 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I can gaurentee neither of you guys work outside. My issue is we are loosing one of two of the best periods to work outside. April and October. Nothing is better then a day in the 60s. I’ll pass on 90s just like I’ll pass on 40s. In winter, I love snow so much I’m willing to freeze.

Lmao I understand and I do not work outside but I do commute and my commute consists of a lot of walking. But hey like I said I’d rather risk having 49’s now instead of 80’s and 90’s. We probably will switch to summer soon but hey next week looks nice for you man

[ILoveWinter]

4 hours ago, NewYorkweatherfan said:

I disagree, this colder than normal weather will persist into June because the volcanos from last year. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vox.com/platform/amp/energy-and-environment/2017/11/28/16712234/bali-volcano-eruption-agung-climate

https://scied.ucar.edu/shortcontent/how-volcanoes-influence-climate

Yes volcanoes can cool but you should see what the rest of the globe is doing too. We are just stuck in a cold pattern.  Western Europe, for example, has been quite mild (London was around 80 today).

[SnoSki14]

True Spring weather will begin this weekend. I see 60-70F temps for the next 10+ days, otherwise known as Spring weather. 

And it'll get much hotter from there with 6 straight months of warmth coming right up. No need to complain about the chill any longer.

[NewYorkweatherfan]

2 hours ago, ILoveWinter said:

Yes volcanoes can cool but you should see what the rest of the globe is doing too. We are just stuck in a cold pattern.  Western Europe, for example, has been quite mild (London was around 80 today).

It was relatively cold during the whole entire winter throughout the whole entire northern hemisphere. Now yes you did see some extreme warmth here and there but it wasn’t as pronounced as previous years. And yes we had a warm February that’s because we had a crappy pattern. There’s always warm air to our south, you have the Southern Hemisphere!

 

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

True Spring weather will begin this weekend. I see 60-70F temps for the next 10+ days, otherwise known as Spring weather. 

And it'll get much hotter from there with 6 straight months of warmth coming right up. No need to complain about the chill any longer.

Although I agree spring is coming, next week looks very cool during that rain event, i wouldn’t doubt monticello gets some snow out of it cool! Winter is giving up slowly this year but it’ll get there, it’s the troughing that’s really annoying the warm air fans. Plenty of time now though another 5 months of warm air coming at you!

[CIK62]

Next 8 days up to an average of 53degs., or 3degs. BN.

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, NewYorkweatherfan said:

It was relatively cold during the whole entire winter throughout the whole entire northern hemisphere. Now yes you did see some extreme warmth here and there but it wasn’t as pronounced as previous years. And yes we had a warm February that’s because we had a crappy pattern. There’s always warm air to our south, you have the Southern Hemisphere!

 

Although I agree spring is coming, next week looks very cool during that rain event, i wouldn’t doubt monticello gets some snow out of it cool! Winter is giving up slowly this year but it’ll get there, it’s the troughing that’s really annoying the warm air fans. Plenty of time now though another 5 months of warm air coming at you!

The Northern Hemisphere winter was the 3rd warmest on record. Despite the localized cold in March, the Northern Hemisphere was 4th warmest on record. While the global and Northern Hemisphere temperatures have come off a bit from a few years ago, this is a result of the shift from El Nino to La Nina. But these last two La Nina winters were the warmest on record for La Nina. So the La Ninas now were warmer than El Ninos before  2016.

[Drz1111]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The Northern Hemisphere winter was the 3rd warmest on record. Despite the localized cold in March, the Northern Hemisphere was 4th warmest on record. While the global and Northern Hemisphere temperatures have come off a bit from a few years ago, this is a result of the shift from El Nino to La Nina. But these last two La Nina winters were the warmest on record for La Nina. So the La Ninas now were warmer than El Ninos before  2016.

That’s a quasi meaningless stat, though, since it’s driven by high latitude warming where nobody lives.  In terms of perception what’s relevant is temperature anomalies in the temperate latitudes.  And that’s much, much lower, and in a winter like this, actually quite cold.

Put differently:  if you’re a polar bear or a climate scientist, you care about integrated N Hemisphere temps.  If you’re a met it’s a bull**** statistic.

[NewYorkweatherfan]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The Northern Hemisphere winter was the 3rd warmest on record. Despite the localized cold in March, the Northern Hemisphere was 4th warmest on record. While the global and Northern Hemisphere temperatures have come off a bit from a few years ago, this is a result of the shift from El Nino to La Nina. But these last two La Nina winters were the warmest on record for La Nina. So the La Ninas now were warmer than El Ninos before  2016.

It was colder, and snowier. 

[bluewave]

49 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

That’s a quasi meaningless stat, though, since it’s driven by high latitude warming where nobody lives.  In terms of perception what’s relevant is temperature anomalies in the temperate latitudes.  And that’s much, much lower, and in a winter like this, actually quite cold.

Put differently:  if you’re a polar bear or a climate scientist, you care about integrated N Hemisphere temps.  If you’re a met it’s a bull**** statistic.

 

26 minutes ago, NewYorkweatherfan said:

It was colder, and snowier. 

Why don't you guys look at the actual data instead of wasting space in here with those uninformed responses.

[bluewave]

No wonder the moderators sometimes feel like that are running an adult daycare center. Very sad when they are away for a few hours and these garbage posts start taking the thread off topic. People need to take their tantrums somewhere else.

[NewYorkweatherfan]

35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

No wonder the moderators sometimes feel like that are running an adult daycare center. Very sad when they are away for a few hours and these garbage posts start taking the thread off topic. People need to take their tantrums somewhere else.

You have to admit the volcano eruptions were part of it, I’m going go on a limb and saying the eruptions were partially to blame for persisting cold in late December and early January and March and April!

[nzucker]

3 hours ago, Drz1111 said:

Dude, don't take this the wrong way but I have graduate degrees in climatology.  You're the one who's uninformed.   Go back to school.

Can you stop? Look at the maps...the winter had higher than normal heights over much of the Northern Hemisphere. Case closed.

[nzucker]

10 minutes ago, NewYorkweatherfan said:

You have to admit the volcano eruptions were part of it, I’m going go on a limb and saying the eruptions were partially to blame for persisting cold in late December and early January and March and April!

You don't "have to admit" that. None of the eruptions was a VEI5 or VEI6, a level significant enough to reach the stratosphere with an aerosol plume. That means these eruptions had very limited effects on hemispheric temperatures. A much bigger driver was the MJO progression associated with the demise of La Nina and the -NAO block.

[MJO812]

CMC and GFS agree on cooler weather ahead

[NewYorkweatherfan]

1 hour ago, nzucker said:

You don't "have to admit" that. None of the eruptions was a VEI5 or VEI6, a level significant enough to reach the stratosphere with an aerosol plume. That means these eruptions had very limited effects on hemispheric temperatures. A much bigger driver was the MJO progression associated with the demise of La Nina and the -NAO block.

Very close it reached 4.7 miles which is about as close to a major event, 6.2 is the height of our stratosphere which didn’t reach but it definitely had other volcanos earlier last year that would have made it cooler as well.