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April 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The record MJO and strat warming event flipped our pattern to colder. Funny how the MJO never missed an opportunity to hit the warm phases between October and February. Since then, it has found a way to miss the warm phases every time.

Next winter it would be nice if we could get the timing right for once, our clock has been off the last couple of winters.

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10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The record MJO and strat warming event flipped our pattern to colder. Funny how the MJO never missed an opportunity to hit the warm phases between October and February. Since then, it has found a way to miss the warm phases every time.

Had this pattern started 1/15 or even 2/1 we would have possibly had historic seasonal snowfall totals...

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1 minute ago, Rtd208 said:

Next winter it would be nice if we could get the timing right for once, our clock has been off the last couple of winters.

This was the first time that a March into April cold and snowy pattern made up for such a mild January 10th to February 28th. Now, there aren't any catalysts showing up yet that would flip the pattern back to extended warmth. So we take a few spring days at a time like Friday and Saturday.

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8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Had this pattern started 1/15 or even 2/1 we would have possibly had historic seasonal snowfall totals...

Yeah, a colder winter version of the March into April storms may have resembled a wild stretch like 12/26/10 to 1/26/11.

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4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This was the first time that a March into April cold and snowy pattern made up for such a mild January 10th to February 28th. Now, there aren't any catalysts showing up yet that would flip the pattern back to extended warmth. So we take a few spring days at a time like Friday and Saturday.

Euro weeklies show us below normal temp wise until the very last week of the run, (last week of May)

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This was the first time that a March into April cold and snowy pattern made up for such a mild January 10th to February 28th. Now, there aren't any catalysts showing up yet that would flip the pattern back to extended warmth. So we take a few spring days at a time like Friday and Saturday.

Forky posted this yesterday which was music to my ears. Hopefully we are getting back into a much more active period.

 

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22 minutes ago, uncle W said:

back in 1896 NYC was having three straight days in the upper 80s low 90s...this came after 33" of snow in March and early April...it was the benchmark for early warmth until 1976 and 2002 around this date...

how did you survive without a.c. ?

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2 hours ago, nycwinter said:

how did you survive without a.c. ?

it wasn't fun...later that year in August there were 10 straight days 90 or higher plus a few days with a minimum thrown in...try and sleep with those temps and probably Humidity also with no fans or ac...

https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1896-04-19/ed-1/seq-1/

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Next 8 days averaging just 50degs., or about 5 or 6 degrees BN.

Rossby Wave Train has been consistent in showing BN Temps. for first half of May and Normal for second half.  The period M, J, J looks Normal with a + bias for us.

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8 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

This is ridiculous, bring on spring/summer already. It looks like things should start warming up a bit over the next few days but still below normal until we start getting more normal temps in the low to mid 60's beginning next week.

..it is ridiculous..34* here..KFOK @ 33*..at least it will be sunny today and the w/e looks to 

have clear skies..so, even if temps stay BN the sun will do its magic..declination of the sun 

is equivalent to late august now, so,..to quote bill murray..."at least we got that going for us"..

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Unusually cool spring so far in NYC for the 3/1-4/17 period since 1980. It's actually the 3rd coldest at 42.6 degrees. The same period in 2012 was 10 degrees warmer at 52.6. That was the second warmest of all time.

#1...41.3...1984

#2...41.6...1996

#3...42.6....2018...2007...1992

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