donsutherland1 Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 39 minutes ago, NewYorkweatherfan said: Cmc has a SECS for us for next Friday 6+ storm and very cold system. Gfs has it too with a few additional inches after Monday's wave! Incredible where is eceryone? That system has been on the proverbial radar of some of the guidance for some time. Further, the 500 mb pattern in eastern North America out to the Greenland is somewhat similar to that of the April 7-8, 2003 storm with the trough displaced just a little south of that prior case. if there's going to be a measurable snow event in New York City, that system may provide the best chance at such an outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 14 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: That system has been on the proverbial radar of some of the guidance for some time. Further, the 500 mb pattern in eastern North America out to the Greenland is somewhat similar to that of the April 7-8, 2003 storm with the trough displaced just a little south of that prior case. if there's going to be a measurable snow event in New York City, that system may provide the best chance at such an outcome. Don we could actually get two snowfall events in April, I believe this happened in 1982 and 1996. That would be pretty amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 Euro has 3 events until next Monday Though next Monday looks like a suburbia special to me. Regardless Central Park May get historic snows this month especially if the precipitation comes in at night. Recap from the euro snow Monday morning 2-4... Friday snow and than next Monday rain snow mix looks cold enough though. i think after next Monday we are in full spring mood and warm weather breaks out. Hopefully it’s warm and dry not like the crap we had yesterday with the humidity and 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 No signs of the cold trough leaving the East on the latest run of the EPS. One of the strongest cold MJO 8-3 progressions that we have seen in April. Any spring-like days will be transient between cold and snow chances. The Feb record MJO and strat warming really shifted the pattern here to colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 5 hours ago, Paragon said: Don we could actually get two snowfall events in April, I believe this happened in 1982 and 1996. That would be pretty amazing. It's forecast to be a remarkable pattern, especially if it delivers. The last time Central Park had two days with measurable snowfall in April was 1996 (April 9-10). Before that, the last occasion was 1942 (April 9-10). The last time Central Park had three days with measurable snowfall in April occurred in 1918 (April 11, 12, 13). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 31, 2018 Author Share Posted March 31, 2018 2 hours ago, bluewave said: No signs of the cold trough leaving the East on the latest run of the EPS. One of the strongest cold MJO 8-3 progressions that we have seen in April. Any spring-like days will be transient between cold and snow chances. The Feb record MJO and strat warming really shifted the pattern here to colder. 11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: It's forecast to be a remarkable pattern, especially if it delivers. The last time Central Park had two days with measurable snowfall in April was 1996 (April 9-10). Before that, the last occasion was 1942 (April 9-10). The last time Central Park had three days with measurable snowfall in April occurred in 1918 (April 11, 12, 13). I honestly want the warmer weather but that doesn't look like it will happen at least through the first half of the month. It's amazing we are talking about two possible snow chances and cold temps over the next 7-10 days. Do you guys have any thoughts on the rest of the spring and for the summer months i.e. cooler/hotter, drier/wetter?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 I would look at cmc today to see what happens after our April 2nd snowstorm. This would be the range the cmc would catch on to systems for 5-6 days out. Let’s see what it depicts in an hour! I think cmc is the best model when it comes to showing this in the 5-6 days it showed Monday’s Event this past Tuesday! Funny thing is it’s been doing this every storm this year since it’s upgrade and everyone laughed at me when I mentioned it. Regardless cmc is only good for that, it loses the storm all the time but it does always point it out around the 5-6 day timeframe! It’s very interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 biggest April snowfalls in Newark N.J. since 1950... 12.8" 4/6/1982 4.4"...4/7/2003 4.1"...4/19/1983 4.1"...4/4/1957 3.4"...4/8/1956 2.2"... 4/6/1971 1.4"...4/1/1997 1.3"...4/5/2006 1.1"...4/12/1959 1.0"...4/9/1982 0.9"...4/9/2000 0.7"...4/9-10/1996 0.7"...4/2/1965 0.7"...4/14/1950 0.6"...4/7/1990 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 3 minutes ago, uncle W said: biggest April snowfalls in Newark N.J. since 1950... 12.8" 4/6/1982 4.4"...4/7/2003 4.1"...4/19/1983 4.1"...4/4/1957 3.4"...4/8/1956 2.2"... 4/6/1971 1.4"...4/1/1997 1.3"...4/5/2006 1.1"...4/12/1959 1.0"...4/9/1982 0.9"...4/9/2000 0.7"...4/9-10/1996 0.7"...4/2/1965 0.7"...4/14/1950 0.6"...4/7/1990 Uncle, any idea what the record snowfall is for any spring season in NYC? With 8.4 inches already in the books this spring, and a couple of possibilities on the table I would think this spring has top 5 potential at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 CMc shows barely anything bad sign. I’ll look again tonight and tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 8 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Uncle, any idea what the record snowfall is for any spring season in NYC? With 8.4 inches already in the books this spring, and a couple of possibilities on the table I would think this spring has top 5 potential at least. it would depend on what date you started at...3/21 or 3/22?...1875 had 13.5" of snow in April...1915, 1924, 1944, 1967, 1982 off the top of my head round out the top six... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 2 minutes ago, uncle W said: it would depend on what date you started at...3/21 or 3/22?...1875 had 13.5" of snow in April...1915, 1924, 1944, 1967, 1982 off the top of my head round out the top six... That would be the difficult part. The spring Equinox can be the 20th through 22nd in any given year so technically the 20th could be included as springtime snow some years and the 21st not included. I'd go with the 21st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 17 minutes ago, NewYorkweatherfan said: CMc shows barely anything bad sign. I’ll look again tonight and tomorrow Too early Gefs is more amped than the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 Gfs 18z is full of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 13 hours ago, Rtd208 said: I honestly want the warmer weather but that doesn't look like it will happen at least through the first half of the month. It's amazing we are talking about two possible snow chances and cold temps over the next 7-10 days. Do you guys have any thoughts on the rest of the spring and for the summer months i.e. cooler/hotter, drier/wetter?? I suspect that once this cold pattern breaks--and it might take until the closing 7-10 days of April--a sustained period of warmer than normal temperatures could take hold. Summer could be warmer than normal, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 The latest guidance continues to suggest that much of the region will experience a snowfall late tonight into tomorrow morning. Measurable snowfall appears likely even at Central Park. Measurable snowfall is likely in Boston, New York City, and Philadelphia. Such an outcome would be the first measurable April snowfall in all three locations since April 7, 2003. Early estimates for select locations: Boston: 1”-3” Bridgeport: 1”-3” Farmingdale: 1”-3” Islip: 2”-4” New York City: 1”-3” Newark: 2”-4” Poughkeepsie: 1” or less White Plains: 1”-3” New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 4/5 45.7°-50.5° 4/10 44.4°-49.8° Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an below normal monthly anomaly: 52% New York City April Snowfall Climatology: 1869-2017 Days with measurable snowfall: 59 Days with 0.5" or more snowfall: 43 Days with 1" or more snowfall: 29 Days with 2" or more snowfall: 20 Days with 3" or more snowfall: 13 Days with 4" or more snowfall: 9 Days with 5" or more snowfall: 7 Days with 6" or more snowfall: 6 Days with 7" or more snowfall: 4 Days with 8" or more snowfall: 4 Days with 9" or more snowfall: 2 Days with 10" or more snowfall: 1 Years with 1 or more days with measurable snowfall: 42 Years with 2 or more days with measurable snowfall: 13 Years with 3 or more days with measurable snowfall: 3 Years with 4 or more days with measurable snowfall: 1 Most days with measurable snowfall: 4, 1875 Highest daily snowfall: 10.0", April 3, 1915 Biggest April snowstorm: 10.2", April 3-4, 1915 Distribution of Days with Measurable Snowfall: April 1-10: 28 (47%) April 11-20: 28 (47%) April 21-30: 3 (5%) Latest measurable snowfall: April 29, 1874 (0.5") Most recent April measurable snowfall: April 5, 2006 (0.1") Monthly Snowfall Totals for April: 1.0” or more: 21 months 2.0” or more: 16 months 3.0” or more: 11 months 4.0” or more: 10 months 5.0” or more: 8 months 6.0” or more: 5 months 7.0” or more: 4 months 8.0” or more: 4 months 9.0” or more: 3 months 10.0” or more: 2 months 11.0” or more: 1 month 12.0” or more: 1 month Snowiest April: 13.5”, 1875 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: The latest guidance continues to suggest that much of the region will experience a snowfall late tonight into tomorrow morning. Measurable snowfall appears likely even at Central Park. Measurable snowfall is likely in Boston, New York City, and Philadelphia. Such an outcome would be the first measurable April snowfall in all three locations since April 7, 2003. Early estimates for select locations: Boston: 1”-3” Bridgeport: 1”-3” Farmingdale: 1”-3” Islip: 2”-4” New York City: 1”-3” Newark: 2”-4” Poughkeepsie: 1” or less White Plains: 1”-3” New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 4/5 45.7°-50.5° 4/10 44.4°-49.8° Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an below normal monthly anomaly: 52% New York City April Snowfall Climatology: 1869-2017 Days with measurable snowfall: 59 Days with 0.5" or more snowfall: 43 Days with 1" or more snowfall: 29 Days with 2" or more snowfall: 20 Days with 3" or more snowfall: 13 Days with 4" or more snowfall: 9 Days with 5" or more snowfall: 7 Days with 6" or more snowfall: 6 Days with 7" or more snowfall: 4 Days with 8" or more snowfall: 4 Days with 9" or more snowfall: 2 Days with 10" or more snowfall: 1 Years with 1 or more days with measurable snowfall: 42 Years with 2 or more days with measurable snowfall: 13 Years with 3 or more days with measurable snowfall: 3 Years with 4 or more days with measurable snowfall: 1 Most days with measurable snowfall: 4, 1875 Highest daily snowfall: 10.0", April 3, 1915 Biggest April snowstorm: 10.2", April 3-4, 1915 Distribution of Days with Measurable Snowfall: April 1-10: 28 (47%) April 11-20: 28 (47%) April 21-30: 3 (5%) Latest measurable snowfall: April 29, 1874 (0.5") Most recent April measurable snowfall: April 5, 2006 (0.1") Monthly Snowfall Totals for April: 1.0” or more: 21 months 2.0” or more: 16 months 3.0” or more: 11 months 4.0” or more: 10 months 5.0” or more: 8 months 6.0” or more: 5 months 7.0” or more: 4 months 8.0” or more: 4 months 9.0” or more: 3 months 10.0” or more: 2 months 11.0” or more: 1 month 12.0” or more: 1 month Snowiest April: 13.5”, 1875 the latest measurable snow in April for NYC is 3" on the 25th in 1875...there is zero snowfall for April 1974 on the noaa monthly and annual snowfall list...But the New York Tribune from April 30th, 1874 has a page with stories about the storm...places like Easton PA. got a foot...NYC did get a little snow...Baltimore got 4"...Washington 2"... https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1874-04-30/ed-1/seq-7/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, uncle W said: the latest measurable snow in April for NYC is 3" on the 25th in 1875...there is zero snowfall for April 1974 on the noaa monthly and annual snowfall list...But the New York Tribune from April 30th, 1874 has a page with stories about the storm...places like Easton PA. got a foot...NYC did get a little snow...Baltimore got 4"...Washington 2"... https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1874-04-30/ed-1/seq-7/ NY Herald has a good article on the storm... https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030313/1874-04-30/ed-1/seq-9/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 Gfs is very bullish for next weekend storm. 1-2 feet for the tristate area. Heavy snow with a hybrid miller B looks like Cmc shows the same type of storm miller B and drops around a foot of snow arewide more to the south! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 Gfs has heavy snow to rain for NYC and south...rockland and upper Westchester never really change and get over 2 feet of snow for next week. Begins around Saturday night and lasts about 30hrs. Cmc is all snow for the area and begins around Saturday 7am and lasts through Sunday evening. Incredible looking storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 Nice temp overperformer as usual, 62F already and sun's fully out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Nice temp overperformer as usual, 62F already and sun's fully out. Its still going to snow and stick tomorrow morning with temps hovering around freezing. Pretty incredible if you think about it the extremes we've experienced lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 On 3/31/2018 at 11:38 AM, NewYorkweatherfan said: I would look at cmc today to see what happens after our April 2nd snowstorm. This would be the range the cmc would catch on to systems for 5-6 days out. Let’s see what it depicts in an hour! I think cmc is the best model when it comes to showing this in the 5-6 days it showed Monday’s Event this past Tuesday! Funny thing is it’s been doing this every storm this year since it’s upgrade and everyone laughed at me when I mentioned it. Regardless cmc is only good for that, it loses the storm all the time but it does always point it out around the 5-6 day timeframe! It’s very interesting So since cmc brought back the storm where the cmc is good at showing storms 5-6 days out than losing them and than finally getting it back within a day or two before the storm hits when all guidance has caught to the idea of having the storm by this timeframe. Well I expect the cmc to lose the storm in the next few runs only to be reappear again by Wednesday night or Thursday afternoon. Also I expect the Euro to start catching up to the next weekend storm sometime in the next 48hrs. Gfs will move back and forth until 48hrs out so I will not sorry if it wobbles. I would pay attention to ukmet and Euro the next 48hrs than look at navgem and gfs accompanied by jma icon and cmc. The last one to the party should be the cmc. See u guys in a few days regarding this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 April is starting out mild, the same way March did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 Euro is a minor snow event more to the south for next weekend. Below freezing temps during the entire time of the event 1-3 inch snow event. Itd be nice if this was maybe 75 miles north and wed get a SECS easily! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 From the New York Botanical Garden this afternoon. Today could wind up becoming NYC's 4th day in the last 2 years where 60° readings were followed by measurable snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 Another storm showing up on the Euro for next Tuesday lol snow to mix type deal. Unreal lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 63 here, wasn’t expecting it to be this warm today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 8-12 inches for next weekend for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 Models are still changing for next week. We need to give it time. But seeing the euro south doesn’t help much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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