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April 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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Looks like NYC will have a shot at adding a few +10 or greater temperature departure days Friday into Saturday. Beyond that, not many more showing up in the pattern for a while. This would keep NYC on track with 2013 and 2014 as having the lowest number spring(MAM) days during the 2010's.

NYC Spring(MAM) +10 or greater departure days during the 2010's

2018....1....so far

2017....15

2016....20

2015....14

2014....8

2013....7

2012...24

2011...12

2010...28

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1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

21.2 this morning.

It's looking pretty certain I won't be cutting the lawn until sometime in May. I'm okay with that.

Historically the average last freeze day in the HV, Poughkeepsie, Montgomery, New paltz is the May 4-8 period. If this pattern continues a late May freeze may be in the works this year.

19.8 was my low. Could have gone for single digits if I had some snow on the ground :whistle:

 

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The 12z NAM is coming into line with the Euro idea of a super backdoor cold front Saturday night. One of the few times in April that you will see 70's to near 80 in our area and 20's for the Adirondacks. This would support the Euro idea of 30 to 40 degrees colder on Sunday.  At least between Saturday high and the Sunday low.

 

f78.thumb.gif.5ee69500248cf3dc13a2c17d4b8e8c0a.gif

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, doncat said:

Still very little signs of growth...woods still have an almost winter look. I would think that we'll see somewhat of a burst with the warmup coming.

Yes, there are almost no buds on trees. In the record warm spring of 2010, we were almost fully leafed out by 4/11. Just a drastic difference.

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40 minutes ago, Bosswx said:

Basically all trees have large buds and started leafing except the oaks found here in the pine barrens which have small buds.

Central jersey is always a week ahead of nyc which is a week ahead of Long Island. It’s still winter on the island. I’m about 2 weeks behind schedule with my landscape design business. Starting my first project of the season Friday. 

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4 hours ago, nzucker said:

Yes, there are almost no buds on trees. In the record warm spring of 2010, we were almost fully leafed out by 4/11. Just a drastic difference.

I'm really impressed with how barren it still is.  Didn't expect us to go this long without seeing at least some signs of Spring.  Haven't even heard the peepers here yet.

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11 hours ago, Vice-Regent said:

Backdoor hell is the worst. I will probably be on the edge which will leave me wondering until the last second.

The models are trending away from a backdoor scenario (less SE Canada troughing), looks more like a standard frontal passage with a lot of warmth preceding the front.

Strong cold push into strong WAR should make things pretty active Sun-Mon though. 

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2 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

I've also noticed the dawn chorus has been much quieter than normal so far this spring. Typically by later in March, the birds are fairly loud in the morning; not the case this year. Vegetation and wildlife still seem to think it's late winter. My mean temp for April thus far is only 1.3 degrees warmer than February's mean temp.

Yeah I agree.  The frogs typically start sometime in late March here.  I guess you could say it doesn't look, nor sound, like Spring.

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On 4/6/2018 at 7:34 AM, ThatHurricane said:

Since 2000 the mean last freeze has been March 31, with values ranging from March 16th to April 16th. It would be somewhat later than average, but not too late.

Just east of JFK we had a hard freeze this morning, 4/11, and this might be our last freeze for the season.

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8 hours ago, forkyfork said:

this is partially why the WAR goes nuclear whenever it gets the chance and it's also a big factor in all the nor'easters

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2018/04/11/the-oceans-circulation-hasnt-been-this-sluggish-in-1000-years-thats-bad-news/?utm_term=.a7eedecf8803

it also explains all the blocking regimes, everything is moving slower.

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3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Central jersey is always a week ahead of nyc which is a week ahead of Long Island. It’s still winter on the island. I’m about 2 weeks behind schedule with my landscape design business. Starting my first project of the season Friday. 

well the tree pollen has been really bad :(

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1 hour ago, doncat said:

Nam continues strongest with the back door on Sat...Temps drop off quickly after reaching the 70's, well down in the 40's by midnight and mostly in the 30's on Sunday.f84.thumb.gif.31cdaa1358a39593ff265d00dc1665d3.gif

If that front pushes through earlier rather than later, in the middle of the afternoon for example, I think some people are gonna lose it, myself included. 

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3 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

If that front pushes through earlier rather than later, in the middle of the afternoon for example, I think some people are gonna lose it, myself included. 

This is continuing to look like one of the strongest backdoor cold fronts for April that we have ever seen. I can't find another example of a 1046 mb high in SE Canada pushing such a big temperature drop in just 12-24 hrs. The Euro and NAM both have the potential for easterlies near the coast to gust to 30-40 mph behind the front.

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