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April 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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2 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

I am good with it being wet as long as it is not to cool, 60's & 70's would be fine. If the entire summer was wet with temps in the 70's and 80's I would be fine with that, it would probably be on the humid and sticky side as well if precipitation wound up being above normal.

Those are my favorite types of summers. Anyone rooting for record highs 1. Doesn’t work outside 2. Doesn’t work in manhattan and have to dress up for work 

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Scattered rain showers and, in the far northern and western suburbs, snow showers are moving across the region. The afternoon should dry out and the a spell of springlike warmth should descend on the region beginning tomorrow.

The Thursday-Sunday period will likely see readings in the 60s and 70s. Some of the warmest areas could make a run at 80°, especially on Friday or Saturday.

However, next week will likely see the return of cooler weather and storminess. Parts of central and northern New York State could actually see some accumulations of snow next week.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

April 9: 43.3° (6.0° below normal)
April 10: 43.3°-43.9° (4/9 estimate: 43.0°-43.6°)
April 15: 47.6°-49.6° (4/9 estimate: 46.4°-49.5°)

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an below normal monthly anomaly: 54% (4/9 estimate: 55%)

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Rossby Wave Train should keep above normal heights at bay longer than the CFS has been showing for the last week.  BN temperatures should take over by the 25th. again and continue to mid-May.

May still looking BN.  M,J,J are neutral now, formerly BN.

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The Euro is featuring one of the strongest back door cold fronts on record for April following the 80 degree potential on Saturday. Probably the most frozen precip that I can remember to our north in April with a back door. Euro pushes the high pressure well into the 1040's. Other models a few mb weaker with the HP. But they all have a late season snow and ice threat for interior areas especially closer to the Canadian border.

ecmwf_ptype_a_neng_27.thumb.png.52da95f183001945873d36ad46a5b132.png

ecmwf_mslp_m_conus2_23.thumb.png.6b56209a7f4f2607b3ec271bfac0d59d.png

 

That would mean from 80° here Sat afternoon, to upper 30's Sun morning.

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7 minutes ago, doncat said:

That would mean from 80° here Sat afternoon, to upper 30's Sun morning.

Yeah, that's what the Euro is showing. It actually has a 30 degree drop in about 6 hrs later Saturday behind the backdoor. Monday looks like a real soaker as a deep tropical moisture feed overruns the backdoor as it comes north again. 

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13 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Coating this morning looked 'nice' if you're not tired of it yet ;)  My P&C has more snow showers tomorrow night ahead of the incoming warmth.

Not looking forward to another round of cool and wet after Fri/Sat. 

 

3rd highest amount of days with measurable precip 2/1-4/10 in NYC since the 1800's. This is almost getting to be like the PACNW with precip events every few days.  

37...1936

36..1884

34..2018...1950

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

3rd highest amount of days with measurable precip 2/1-4/10 in NYC since the 1800's. This is almost getting to be like the PACNW with precip events every few days.  

37...1936

36..1884

34..2018...1950

 

Considering that it's only the 10th and we've had precip on 7 of those days this month is just too wet for my tastes so far. 5 of those 7 days the precip has been snow :( 

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, that's what the Euro is showing. It actually has a 30 degree drop in about 6 hrs later Saturday behind the backdoor. Monday looks like a real soaker as a deep tropical moisture feed overruns the backdoor as it comes north again. 

It could easily be overdoing it but with the blocking and propensity for troughing, we should see a stronger than normal backdoor season. 

At least we get a nice Fri/Sat.

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46 minutes ago, doncat said:

12Z euro, from 80° Sat afternoon to 40° Sun afternoon.

It will be interesting to see how close the Euro comes to verifying. When was the last time we had a 40 degree drop in 1 day during April?

 

 

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The temperature predictions/structures for Saturday are going to crash and burn at many locations---in either direction, but most likely are too high.   The highs on land will encourage a sea breeze which will be present anyway I think---and will not last very long.   Cape May is suppose to have Normal temperatures, while nw New Jersey is +26.  I am gonna be ready to catch my first hour on the beach here, but feel it is unlikely to come off.  Nearby Breezy Point gets to 71, supposedly.

For a super temperature swing try NYC on April 16-17, 2003-----88 (4PM) to 37 in 15 hours, back to 44 exactly 24hrs. later, or something like that.   Extreme temperature change warning was in effect at the time.

 

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Next 8 days averaging 55degs., or 4degs. AN.

Rossby Wave Train still AN till last week of April.  Has first 10 days of May as cold relatively, as April was.

I am at 41 here.  W/O winds the temps. must be varying a lot.  Station with a 28, are you located in a valley?  I am  +180'.

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3 hours ago, doncat said:

28° here currently...Impressive cold for this date...Station record for cold so late in season. So this season set record for coldest so early in Nov, and coldest so late in April. ( 40 years of record).

 

It was among the coldest and snowiest first 10 days in April for NYC since 1980. 

Coldest 4/1-4/10 patterns for NYC since 1980

43.5...2018

41.9...2007

39.9...2003

43.3...1996

40.2...1982

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1 hour ago, doncat said:

28° here currently...Impressive cold for this date...Station record for cold so late in season. So this season set record for coldest so early in Nov, and coldest so late in April. ( 40 years of record).

 

...KFOK got down to 20*..i'm currently @ 24*

heavy, heavy frost..growing season??..yeah right!!

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