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April 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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Be interesting to see if the late April coastal storm the models have verifies next week. This would give NYC the first 3 months in a row with over 5" of precip since 2011. It could indicate the beginning of a new wetter period following the recent dry multiyear run.

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  On 4/18/2018 at 12:00 PM, bluewave said:

Be interesting to see if the late April noreaster the models have verifies next week. This would give NYC the first 3 months in a row with over 5" of precip since 2011. It could indicate the beginning of a new wetter period following the recent dry multiyear run.

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Looks like the GFS OP is back onboard on bringing it up the coast after have it stay south and east of us for several runs.

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  On 4/18/2018 at 12:14 PM, Rtd208 said:

Looks like the GFS OP is back onboard on bringing it up the coast after have it stay south and east of us for several runs.

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Meanwhile the CMC doesn’t even have a storm on the east coast in the same time period lol lots of time for it to fluctuate.  Would love for it to stay south and we can get a full week of 60F weather but we shall see.

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  On 4/18/2018 at 12:14 PM, Rtd208 said:

Looks like the GFS OP is back onboard on bringing it up the coast after have it stay south and east of us for several runs.

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NYC just needs .70 for the rest of April to join the 2000's monthly 5" triple play club.

Feb...5.83"...Mar....5.17"...Apr....4.30" so far

NYC previous 2000's 3 months in a row with 5" or more

ASO...2011...MAM....2011....MJJ...2009....JJA....2007....JJA...2006...SON....2002

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  On 4/18/2018 at 1:29 PM, Brian5671 said:

Forsythia have yet to bloom here.  Latest I can remember.    Deck was icy this morning as last nights rainfall froze as it cleared out...

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They started blooming here last Friday and are at nearly full color here on my hill even though we had .3" of snow on the ground this morning and 2 nights below freezing since they first popped.

  On 4/18/2018 at 4:28 PM, Brasiluvsnow said:

I just looked at the GFS and what it says for the next 36 hours or there about,,,,,,,,is that ice and snow possibly in the not too far north western suburbs in mid April ? Im not talking just North of NYC but well North,,,still crazy on April 19th or 20 th 

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I don't think of myself as far north and there is snow and frozen precip in my forecast for tomorrow night. Yuck <_<

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  On 4/18/2018 at 5:25 PM, gravitylover said:

They started blooming here last Friday and are at nearly full color here on my hill even though we had .3" of snow on the ground this morning and 2 nights below freezing since they first popped.

I don't think of myself as far north and there is snow and frozen precip in my forecast for tomorrow night. Yuck <_<

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Gravity,,,Im in New City / Rockland and don't consider myself far from the city but I feel anything North n West of me is,,,lol,,,,just crazy that its April 19th and this is happening

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  On 4/18/2018 at 5:54 PM, SnoSki14 said:

Blooming has been slow, things finally started to take off last Friday but it's been a slow process especially when you compare it to previous years. 

There were years where we were fully leafed out by now. 

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Is there some official repository of leaf-out/bloom dates for various locations in the area?  I never really follow it but am curious how "late" we really are.  

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  On 4/18/2018 at 8:02 PM, RU848789 said:

Is there some official repository of leaf-out/bloom dates for various locations in the area?  I never really follow it but am curious how "late" we really are.  

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I always notice between the 20th and 25th is when leaf out really starts to occur with most trees in full bloom by the second week of May. I have a picture from last year on 4/20 and the trees were alot further along. But I've noticed a pretty big change already just this week so while we're behind I'm not sure it'll end up being by more than a week or so

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  On 4/18/2018 at 8:39 PM, bluewave said:

This Western ridge and Eastern trough cool and stormy pattern really has staying power. The closer in time we get, the more amplified it gets. Record +PMM warm pool continues between the West Coast and Hawaii back to the Central and Western Pacific. 

 

New EPS run

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_9.thumb.png.55b17991efbe6b98aa2d09b3655a54a1.png

 

Old run

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.thumb.png.c7bc4a1f38af43316a9d31aa14c60d5c.png

 

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I would think we will have a pretty good chance of seeing the coastal storm middle/end of next week that has been shown on some of the models, could be another good rainmaker to. I am all for the stormy pattern I would just like the temps to be a bit warmer. I would be fine with a stormy summer with temps in the 70's/80's versus hot/dry.

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  On 4/18/2018 at 8:44 PM, Rtd208 said:

I would think we will have a pretty good chance of seeing the coastal storm middle/end of next week that has been shown on some of the models, good be another good rainmaker to. I am all for the stormy pattern I would just like the temps to be a bit warmer. I would be fine with a stormy summer with temps in the 70's/80's versus hot/dry.

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The EPS has a strong signal for the northern and southern streams to phase mid to late next week. Looks like NYC has a shot at topping 5" for the third consecutive month. Hard to believe the last time this happened was way back in 2011.

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  On 4/18/2018 at 8:48 PM, bluewave said:

The EPS has a strong signal for the northern and southern streams to phase mid to late next week. Looks like NYC has a shot at topping 5" for the third consecutive month. Hard to believe the last time this happened was way back in 2011.

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Where was that back during the heart of winter? If only.

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  On 4/19/2018 at 1:36 AM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

We would have crushed snowfall records. That first nor’easter in March especially had it occurred a month earlier would have been feet. 

Today was a somewhat spring like day. At least it wasn’t raw

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sun makes all the difference.  Friday-Mon while cool will be sunny and if there's limited wind it will feel 10 degrees warmer mid-day and early afternoon

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  On 4/19/2018 at 12:46 PM, BrooklynSnow said:

Surprised to see some breaks in the clouds and even the sun coming out this morning.  Maybe we can bust high on temps if the clouds move out faster than forecasted.  Though I do see some rain SW of here still...

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All of Western PA is full of precip, that has to swing through here. It's dark and overcast in my location and there should be periods of light rain or showers all day.

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