pasnownut Posted April 3, 2018 Author Share Posted April 3, 2018 5 hours ago, canderson said: This is June-level heavy rain here right now. Pretty cool 24 hours after heavy snow we had it all melt and now have heavy rain. Weather's so fascinating. We're flying to Texas Friday and back Tuesday ... while you guys watch for snow here I'm watching for severe there. Things look interesting down there Friday and Saturday for storms. Be safe. Enjoy the severe. I know some of u dig that stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 South of pa gets a nice hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, daxx said: South of pa gets a nice hit. Yes. Trends are encouraging. Even with an anomalous air mass inbound we're going to need to be ripping to accumulate. This thing is going to have a pretty narrow stripe of snow OTG as those outside of the heaviest rates will be watching snow melt on contact with it coming during the daylight hours. We need to get those dark greens farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 45 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: Yes. Trends are encouraging. Even with an anomalous air mass inbound we're going to need to be ripping to accumulate. This thing is going to have a pretty narrow stripe of snow OTG as those outside of the heaviest rates will be watching snow melt on contact with it coming during the daylight hours. We need to get those dark greens farther north. I agree. Trends have been favorable just not there yet. anything light would be mood flakes now. We need the heavier rates to be more than that. Still fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: Yes. Trends are encouraging. Even with an anomalous air mass inbound we're going to need to be ripping to accumulate. This thing is going to have a pretty narrow stripe of snow OTG as those outside of the heaviest rates will be watching snow melt on contact with it coming during the daylight hours. We need to get those dark greens farther north. I'm really nervous with this one. It is moving northeast, but it is also sliding southeast at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 The Maytown storm is so close to being a big hit on 12z Euro. We do see some snow, surface is a little warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 Total from Maytown storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 Since this apparently happens every year... Top 10 snowfall totals for April for Harrisburg on record: In looking at Pittsburgh's data - currently at 4.0" with 5.7" currently 10th most on record - not sure how many years are in between current 10th and 2018's 4.0" so far. Does anyone have other location's top 10s such as State College/Lancaster/etc.? edit: Here is Pittsburgh's rankings for April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 1 hour ago, djr5001 said: Since this apparently happens every year... Top 10 snowfall totals for April for Harrisburg on record: So that's pretty much 10 advisory or greater April events for H-Burg in the last 124 years (8% or 1 every 12.4 years). This pattern we're in gives a legitimate chance at 2 such events in the same year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 The GFS & Euro, along with the ensembles all trended north with the Snow storm potential for Saturday. Last night at 0z, the Euro had the 2 inch snow line near Baltimore, but now the 2 inch snow line is near Harrisburg. The GEFS also just went north & has the .5 inch of precip Line near Harrisburg, when earlier today it was south of the MD -PA line. Yesterday’s storm really trended north within 72 hours & the jackpot area ended up near I-80, when a few days before it looked like they would be fringed. Oh, & then there is next week’s storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The GFS & Euro, along with the ensembles all trended north with the Snow storm potential for Saturday. Last night at 0z, the Euro had the 2 inch snow line near Baltimore, but now the 2 inch snow line is near Harrisburg. The GEFS also just went north & has the .5 inch of precip Line near Harrisburg, when earlier today it was south of the MD -PA line. Yesterday’s storm really trended north within 72 hours & the jackpot area ended up near I-80, when a few days before it looked like they would be fringed. Oh, & then there is next week’s storm... Keep it coming Blizz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 When in doubt always trust the 84hr NAM :-) Good start to the 0z runs but it is the 84hr NAM. LOL. Trend North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 It's on GFS game on were are not done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 CMC a bit south but good for right now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 To be tracking snow in April is heaven for me I love it. Whether we get it or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 PAWeather, those maps comprise both the Saturday event and the Tuesday event. Can you comment on approximately how much of that total is from Saturday and how much from next Tuesday? Or, show a map that only covers through Sunday so we can subtract to get Tuesday? Finally, does TT offer maps using Kuchera instead of 10:1? Kuchera is most likely 33% less than the 10:1 totals show. (Just trying to be a realist, not a downer.) Either way I agree with you that's it's pretty exciting to be tracking 2 more snow events over the next 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 With the Saturday event, the CMC is farther north with precip coverage and snow axis than the GFS is. The GFS brushes the PA/MD border with some accumulating snow but the axis of heaviest is through WV/MD/Northern VA/DC. A lot of the GFS accums come from that Tuesday one that it has, while the CMC's mostly comes from Saturday's storm (doesn't impact us with the second storm system). I'd concentrate on one storm at a time and specifically that Sat system for the potential to trend north into PA with possible impacts. Sidenote: While we're discussing/chasing our next prospective April snowfall.. there was some half decent thunderstorms that came through here earlier tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 High Wind Warning up for the entire area today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 The EPS shifted north with the Saturday snow storm. The EPS mean snow map through the Saturday event has the 6 inch snow line up to the PA turnpike, with even more to the south. The EPS Control run through the Saturday event has the 6 inch snow line running along I-81 in PA through the LSV, with even more to the South. I think at least the LSV will get into the good snow stuff with this event, & possibly most of CTP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 27 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The EPS shifted north with the Saturday snow storm. The EPS mean snow map through the Saturday event has the 6 inch snow line up to the PA turnpike, with even more to the south. The EPS Control run through the Saturday event has the 6 inch snow line running along I-81 in PA through the LSV, with even more to the South. I think at least the LSV will get into the good snow stuff with this event, & possibly most of CTP. I'm legit getting excited for Saturday...cautiously so, but excited nonetheless. Someone within a range of say about 75 miles to your north and 75 miles to my south is going to get walloped...and there's a fair chance that we'll both be in the cross hairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Hi All!! Looks like the sub-forum will see a few tastes of winter over the coming days with Saturday looking like a legit, historic for April type of event trying to unfold. I really like the LSV for this one with areas along the PA Line in the cross-hairs for some crazy stuff. Elevation will play a big role in this one, so the areas near the state line and places like Welsh Mountain and near the turnpike will have the best shot at receiving the bigger totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 10 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Hi All!! Looks like the sub-forum will see a few tastes of winter over the coming days with Saturday looking like a legit, historic for April type of event trying to unfold. I really like the LSV for this one with areas along the PA Line in the cross-hairs for some crazy stuff. Elevation will play a big role in this one, so the areas near the state line and places like Welsh Mountain and near the turnpike will have the best shot at receiving the bigger totals. Thanks for your input! I agree with you, wondering what you think the max potential is with this. Looking at the overnight Euro run...that looks a little overdone, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: Thanks for your input! I agree with you, wondering what you think the max potential is with this. Looking at the overnight Euro run...that looks a little overdone, no? It's definitely overdone, but there's a potential for a warning criteria snowfall. The time of the day is the caveat. If this were to occur overnight, we'd be talking the potential for up to a foot with pretty prolific precip field and solid thermal profile. During the day, you're going to fight the April sun, and even with heavy snow falling, it'll be a battle. I can see 5-10" being the max potential if everything breaks right. That's incredibly rare for April in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 The models have sure been jumping around. "North/South" I'm thinking were not done seeing the models trend North. Kind of a repeat of Monday snowfall up here. Something to follow this week a least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 46 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: It's definitely overdone, but there's a potential for a warning criteria snowfall. The time of the day is the caveat. If this were to occur overnight, we'd be talking the potential for up to a foot with pretty prolific precip field and solid thermal profile. During the day, you're going to fight the April sun, and even with heavy snow falling, it'll be a battle. I can see 5-10" being the max potential if everything breaks right. That's incredibly rare for April in these parts. Yep, 36 years ago I measured 7.5" from the prolific 4/6/82 storm. I believe that's the biggest April snow on record here. (Lancaster/MU) As always, much thanks for your insight. Edit to say that the official snow total was less than what I measured at home...I think the recorded record is either 6" or 6.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 I hope you all like wind - it’s gonna blow hard all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, canderson said: I hope you all like wind - it’s gonna blow hard all day. I saw the high wind warning this morning and immediately thought of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 8 hours ago, CarlislePaWx said: PAWeather, those maps comprise both the Saturday event and the Tuesday event. Can you comment on approximately how much of that total is from Saturday and how much from next Tuesday? Or, show a map that only covers through Sunday so we can subtract to get Tuesday? Finally, does TT offer maps using Kuchera instead of 10:1? Kuchera is most likely 33% less than the 10:1 totals show. (Just trying to be a realist, not a downer.) Either way I agree with you that's it's pretty exciting to be tracking 2 more snow events over the next 7 days. It should be this time of year but the 0z Euro Kuchera actually shows more for DC and west than the 10:1 map lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 I have to imagine that this only helps to support the thought that a track a little north of what models have had is possible. That is a lot of precip through Indiana/southern Ohio that I mostly cut off for this image in just the last 7 days for late March/early April (not sure if this has all of yesterdays data yet so may edit later). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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