canderson Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 On cue, it’s f’n pooooouring rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 Tonight's action is focused right up the Susquehanna mainstem to the merge with the West Branch and up that through IPT....coinciding with a corridor of very high PWATs greater than >2". Not a tropical system but it essentially might as well be given the rich moisture fetch and high rainfall efficiency. You Sus Valley folks always know how to do the heavy rainfall events right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 Rough night here x flooded out city roads, Dockside Willies on fire, and a woman in Lancaster County swept away in flood waters apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 Annnd incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 Yeah this is really starting to remind me of the September 2011 flooding. Do any of you think this will get close to the top 3 worst flooding for our area? I know the 2011 flooding was the 3rd worst ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 This is up there with the hardest rain I’ve seen since moving here. My 5” rain gauge is gone, guess it filled and fell over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 1 minute ago, canderson said: This is up there with the hardest rain I’ve seen since moving here. My 5” rain gauge is gone, guess it filled and fell over. It's been pretty bad. Can't remember anything like this since 2011. My pool is about to overflow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 12 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said: Yeah this is really starting to remind me of the September 2011 flooding. Do any of you think this will get close to the top 3 worst flooding for our area? I know the 2011 flooding was the 3rd worst ever. The Susquehanna is not going to come anywhere near 2011 numbers. 2011 featured Irene then Lee - something like 18” rain in a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 You really can't make this stuff up. All the action to the west that I'm missing out on, and now the east as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 Here's something new - it's raining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 1.5” from 12-1 am apparently. No clue otherwise. Its really bad around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 Picked up 0.81" here since midnight with the heaviest falling right as my wife was leaving for work. As for me, I get to go to Honesdale this afternoon and pick up a group and take them into JFK Airport. it'll be interesting to see what I encounter during my travels, AND what I might come home to later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 1.5” from 12-1 am apparently. No clue otherwise. Its really bad around here. And looking at radar, it’s going to get worse. That fetch of radar echoes extends deep into the south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 Meanwhile, just under .5" fell here overnight. No flooding in my immediate area and streams have actually receded a bit. Radar looks ominous to the south, however... Edit to say that I'm at 6.3" for the entire event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 Impressive rain totals. Many locations will see their wettest July ever.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 9 hours ago, canderson said: Rough night here x flooded out city roads, Dockside Willies on fire, and a woman in Lancaster County swept away in flood waters apparently. reason for my 2 hours of sleep. Currently heavy rain in Da Burg Edit- My neighbor just text, Sunday/Monday Rainfall total in Summerdale is 7". That doesn't count anything after midnight. and believe me, it fricking dumped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 5 minutes ago, sauss06 said: reason for my 2 hours of sleep. Currently heavy rain in Da Burg How bad is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 Just now, canderson said: How bad is it? Bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 21 minutes ago, sauss06 said: Bad. That’s terrible - was hoping just a kitchen issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 1 minute ago, canderson said: That’s terrible - was hoping just a kitchen issue. Not going to be open for awhile. Doesn't look bad from outside, but the inside is trashed. street closings are mounting in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 Just 0.50" overnight. We lucked out, split the uprights. Looks like a lot more on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 I'm now beginning to worry a bit about the river, though the lack of heavy rain in the northern mountains probably saves us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 You're not going to believe this, but it's raining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 1 hour ago, canderson said: I'm now beginning to worry a bit about the river, though the lack of heavy rain in the northern mountains probably saves us. Susquehanna is currently forecast to crest at 18.4' on Thursday...flood stage is 17'. Looks to crest at about 2' above flood stage down this way at Marietta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 New warning just terrified my office as all phones went off at once. lash Flood Warning PAC041-043-071-133-241745- /O.NEW.KCTP.FF.W.0023.180724T1454Z-180724T1745Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service State College PA 1054 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2018 The National Weather Service in State College PA has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... West central Lancaster County in south central Pennsylvania... York County in south central Pennsylvania... Southern Dauphin County in south central Pennsylvania... Northeastern Cumberland County in south central Pennsylvania... * Until 145 PM EDT.. * At 1045 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated an area of heavy rain moving into the warned area. Up to eight inches of rain has already fallen in this region over the past few days, with flooding ongoing in many locations. An additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall is likely by early afternoon. This will increase the severity of the flooding. * Some locations that will experience flooding include... Harrisburg, York, Lower Allen, Hanover, Hershey, Colonial Park, Weigelstown, Elizabethtown, Progress, Mechanicsburg, Middletown, Camp Hill, Palmyra, New Cumberland, Parkville, Red Lion, Linglestown, Enola, Steelton and Spry. The Codorus Creek is already above flood stage, and this will exacerbate flooding problems along the creek. Additional rapid rises on the Conowingo and Little Conowingo Creek are also expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 Nothing out yet from CTP but HBG fire officials are concerned about the Susky hitting 22' or so and not the 18' currently forecast. For those unfamiliar, that difference makes a massive difference in the problems it causes. At 18' it's fairly minor basement flooding and City Island parking lot flooding. At 21.5' it breaches the banks in Shipoke and near the Governor's Mansion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 2 minutes ago, canderson said: Nothing out yet from CTP but HBG fire officials are concerned about the Susky hitting 22' or so and not the 18' currently forecast. For those unfamiliar, that difference makes a massive difference in the problems it causes. At 18' it's fairly minor basement flooding and City Island parking lot flooding. At 21.5' it breaches the banks in Shipoke and near the Governor's Mansion. oh man, 22' is not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 30 minutes ago, canderson said: Nothing out yet from CTP but HBG fire officials are concerned about the Susky hitting 22' or so and not the 18' currently forecast. For those unfamiliar, that difference makes a massive difference in the problems it causes. At 18' it's fairly minor basement flooding and City Island parking lot flooding. At 21.5' it breaches the banks in Shipoke and near the Governor's Mansion. Question that maybe no one can really answer - how is the expected crest forecast? If we "only" get an inch or two of rain for the remainder of the event, will the crest be lower, and conversely, if we get 5" will the crest end up higher? I view the hydrology page several times daily and the expected crest seems to fluctuate each time i check. Just wondering how the crest is determined. I'm sure it is highly variable given how many waterways empty into the main stem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 WPC Target again for 2-4” additional today Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0531 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1245 PM EDT Tue Jul 24 2018 Areas affected...Northern Maryland/Delaware into central Pennsylvania, far western New Jersey and southern New York Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 241643Z - 242130Z SUMMARY...Flooding and flash flooding appear likely over the next 3-5 hours from northern Maryland/Delaware into portions of central Pennsylvania, western New Jersey and southern New York. An additional 2-4 inches of rain with rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr through 21Z can be expected. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery at 16Z showed a NNW-SSE axis of heavier rainfall in the vicinity of the northern Chesapeake Bay with rainfall rates of ~1 inch in 15-20 minutes per Wunderground.com observations. The broken line of heavy rain was coincident with weak low level confluence beneath locally diffluent flow aloft given the presence of a narrow upper level ridge axis along the East Coast. The line has been gradually shifting to the north and east which has prevented potentially much higher rainfall totals over the past 2-3 hours but the northern Mid-Atlantic region is saturated from a widespread 4-10 inches of rain which has fallen over the past few days. CAPE values across the northern Mid-Atlantic into southern New York are generally less than 1000 J/kg given cloud cover, but given the moist environment, higher CAPE values are not needed to support heavy rainfall rates. Nonetheless, clearing over eastern Pennsylvania may allow for increasing instability through the afternoon along with the development of new convection. Little change to the synoptic environment is expected over the next several hours which will keep precipitable water values over 2.25 inches and 30-40 kt 850 mb flow from the south helping to support repeating and brief training of heavy rain cores. Given the antecedent conditions, flooding and flash flooding are considered likely. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0531&yr=2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 Horst offers this looking ahead... Looking ahead to next week...I'm concerned that we might see a return to the current set up sometime between July 31 - August 2. If so, frequent showers could pose another flood threat for the region. --Horst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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