Voyager Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 6 minutes ago, sauss06 said: Be thankful I should be, but the weather "geek" in me wants to see something interesting in my own locale. It sounds sick, but in a way it's not unlike those who want to see that 30+ inch blizzard in their own backyard. After all, isn't that why we follow the weather? To experience the anomalous? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 Hersheypark closes for the entire day during midsummer...don't see that happen often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 5 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: Hersheypark closes for the entire day during midsummer...don't see that happen often. Knoebels too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 ABC27 just said this storm system is nearly identical to the Tropical Storm Lee 2011 week that led to the Susquahanna cresting at 30' and flooding a major part of the city. So be prepared for a major flood. That seems a bit premature, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 Just now, canderson said: ABC27 just said this storm system is nearly identical to the Tropical Storm Lee 2011 week that led to the Susquahanna cresting at 25.2' and flooding a major part of the city. So be prepared for a major flood. That seems a bit premature, no? I mentioned that to my wife yesterday. Similar set up, but perhaps not as wet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 18 minutes ago, canderson said: Knoebels too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 1 hour ago, canderson said: ABC27 just said this storm system is nearly identical to the Tropical Storm Lee 2011 week that led to the Susquahanna cresting at 30' and flooding a major part of the city. So be prepared for a major flood. That seems a bit premature, no? Very...quite a large area had 10"-15" amounts, and if memory serves me correctly the ground was already saturated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 26 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: Very...quite a large area had 10"-15" amounts, and if memory serves me correctly the ground was already saturated. Yep your memory is correct. Irene rained on us just before Lee hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 Nothing like some sun to send the temp up to 84, make it feel like swamp, and quickly destabilize the atmosphere . Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 13 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: Nothing like some sun to send the temp up to 84, make it feel like swamp, and quickly destabilize the atmosphere . Pro Coming to say the same thing - it's downright hot today. All the storms seem to be quite a bit north of MDT - bad news for Schuylkill County though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 WPC says everyone in this forum is in a bullseye today/tonight. MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0523 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1257 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2018 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN VA...D.C...MD...PA...NORTHERN DE...NORTHERN NJ...SOUTHERN NY CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY VALID 231655Z - 232255Z SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND LOCALLY SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PROMOTE SOME FLASH FLOODING. DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN INCREASE IN CU/TCU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION AS DIURNAL HEATING CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITHIN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THE REGION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP LAYER SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IN RELATION TO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. A DEEP LAYER CHANNEL OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS SEEN IN CIRA-LPW DATA SETS AND BLENDED-TPW IMAGERY...WITH A HIGHLY CONCENTRATED DEGREE OF MOISTURE IN THE 500/300 MB LAYER. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO PWATS THAT ARE NEAR AND LOCALLY EXCEEDING 2.25 INCHES. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS ADDITIONAL BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ENSUES AND COUPLES WITH A RATHER BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. DEEP LAYER UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROMOTE SOME NW/SE OR N/S ORIENTED CONVECTIVE BANDS THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA. THIS COUPLED WITH THE AID OF OROGRAPHIC ASCENT OVER THE SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND BLUE RIDGE WILL FAVOR ENHANCED RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAINFALL RATES AS HIGH AS 2 TO 3 INCHES/HR WITHIN SOME OF THE MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE CELLS. THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE AND SUITE OF 12Z CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MULTIPLE BANDS OF AS MUCH AS 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 21Z...BUT THESE TOTALS COULD BE A LITTLE TOO CONSERVATIVE GIVEN THE VERY HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING BANDS. WILL EXPECT TO SEE LOCALLY 3 TO 4+ INCHES AS A RESULT BASED ON THE SET-UP...AND THESE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME FLASH FLOODING GIVEN THAT MUCH OF THE REGION IS SEEING VERY MOIST IF NOT SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS. ORRISON[/quote] https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0523&yr=2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 Just had a near zero visibility gully washer roll through. Picked up another .25" quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 About to get hit again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 Cluster of storms rolled through from the south a few minutes ago, but miraculously split right in town and regrouped north of me. I got a whole whopping tenth of an inch out of it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 That storm that just hit HBG has serious crazy rain. We had water halfway up our RAV4 tires on the camp hill bypass. It is hauling north though. Very fast mover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 40 minutes ago, canderson said: That storm that just hit HBG has serious crazy rain. We had water halfway up our RAV4 tires on the camp hill bypass. It is hauling north though. Very fast mover. I was about to say that you guys down there look to be getting some action soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 Looking at the radar, CTP may as well drop the flood watch for Eastern Schuylkill County. We aren't getting crap out of this. The plumes just keep training over the same damn area with nothing upstream to even give me any hope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 Haven’t seen any reports from Etown or Lititz or Ephrata but that cell has been training them for hours now. The HBG City has been fortunate all things consisted, good news for the river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 2 hours ago, Voyager said: Looking at the radar, CTP may as well drop the flood watch for Eastern Schuylkill County. We aren't getting crap out of this. The plumes just keep training over the same damn area with nothing upstream to even give me any hope... Really? We've had several cells roll through the area today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 The bullseye appears likely to shift east over the next day or two also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 6 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: Really? We've had several cells roll through the area today. I have 2.25" for the whole event since Sunday morning. Today's total (so far) was 0.55" I suppose it's better than Allentown, though. According to WNEP, they only got 0.06" today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 Looks like the next batch is destined for York, Adams, and Cumberland counties. Maybe a quieter night for those of us east of the river? We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 6.30" since this started Saturday. Creeks up here is getting bank full. Ground is totally saturated now. https://waterdata.usgs.gov/pa/nwis/current?county_cd=42081&index_pmcode_STATION_NM=1&index_pmcode_DATETIME=2&format=station_list&sort_key=site_no&group_key=NONE&sort_key_2=site_no&html_table_group_key=NONE&rdb_compression=file&list_of_search_criteria=county_cd%2Crealtime_parameter_selection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 Radar really filling in now. Hopefully no flooding even cleaned the patio drain out this morning but more worried about losing power. Was one of the lucky 400ish in lower allen to lose power from like 330a to almost noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 Riddle me this. What is causing the same areas to get dumped on while others get very little? It seems the plume has originated over the Chesapeake Bay the past 3 days and moved right up the Susquehanna valley and it's tributary locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 1 minute ago, Voyager said: Riddle me this. What is causing the same areas to get dumped on while others get very little? It seems the plume has originated over the Chesapeake Bay the past 3 days and moved right up the Susquehanna valley and it's tributary locations. If you manage to find any sort of research paper on stuff like that I'd love to see it! Cause...seriously I have no idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 Just now, Anduril said: If you manage to find any sort of research paper on stuff like that I'd love to see it! Cause...seriously I have no idea I wish I could. I guess it bothers me somewhat because it's not just this event. Every single time we get a set up like this the same area gets it, and I sit painfully just east of the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 2 minutes ago, Voyager said: I wish I could. I guess it bothers me somewhat because it's not just this event. Every single time we get a set up like this the same area gets it, and I sit painfully just east of the action. Hey man I feel ya cant count how many times I stare at the radar to the west and see the storms just split and curve around the camp hill around :p Granted, we cash in a bit more than you but still it sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 It has to be thermal dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 Flash flood warning for southern tier: BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service State College PA 1004 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2018 The National Weather Service in State College PA has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... West central Lancaster County in south central Pennsylvania... Adams County in south central Pennsylvania... Southwestern Northumberland County in central Pennsylvania... York County in south central Pennsylvania... Dauphin County in south central Pennsylvania... Northeastern Juniata County in central Pennsylvania... Perry County in south central Pennsylvania... Eastern Cumberland County in south central Pennsylvania... * Until 300 AM EDT.. * At 1003 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain approaching the warned area. Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly. * Some locations that may experience flooding include... Harrisburg, York, Carlisle, Lower Allen, Hanover, Hershey, Colonial Park, Weigelstown, Elizabethtown, Progress, Mechanicsburg, Middletown, Camp Hill, Gettysburg, Palmyra, New Cumberland, Parkville, Red Lion, Linglestown and Enola. Additional rainfall amounts of up to three inches are possible in the warned area. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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