CarlislePaWx Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, paweather said: I guess I could have clarified better, sorry the redo was with more on rates and how quick it came and left. My bad. The setup here is different but the overall way it acts is similar in timing and rates can it just slow down. No worries...not picking on you. Just exchanging thoughts. It's all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: No worries...not picking on you. Just exchanging thoughts. It's all good. Certainly all good. I appreciate that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 12k NAM at 57 looks primed but a little further south then 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Nam'ing is fun: 998 low no mixing issues in April got to love it. Of course its the NAM at 63 but it is a good start to 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 NAM 12K, nice lollipops south of me. I'll take half foot in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!! and this is Kuchera!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!! and this is Kuchera!! Nice. That is a wow maybe my 6" is conservative. Thanks for posting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Nice start to the 0z runs with the NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 29 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!! and this is Kuchera!! NAM 2m temps are in the mid-upper 20s while this is ongoing. Kuchera takes the warmest temp in the 500mb-surface part of the column and applies it to an equation to spit out the ratio.. so in this case the warmest temps would be at the surface and those kinds of temperatures with a spring storm is impressive. Even more impressive is the NAM's 850 temperatures.. at -6 to -10ºC in the region of C-PA where it's snowing.. in APRIL. That's also why the precip shield might have tightened up in this run.. this isn't no marginal sloppy wet snow look that's for sure. For instance the NAM has Harrisburg at 28-29ºF during the best precip (that's during the day mind you). Applying Kuchera to roughly -2ºC or 271K gives a ratio of 12:1. We've also seen in the last two events ratios that are greater than 10:1 even with having marginal at or near freezing surface temperatures. One has to remember the lifting processes that initiate snow growth go on higher up in the atmosphere, which is a bit of a drawback of the Kuchera. That method doesn't apply that stuff, which is why I don't like using it in marginal temp situations (with that said this does not looks like a marginal temp situation haha). If the rates are good and accumulations are established on the ground, you can get fluff bombed by the good flakes that pile up quickly even with marginal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 19 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Nice start to the 0z runs with the NAM! Can't agree more. South for some of our Northern friends like 2001K. But who knows it can still trend north like April Fools system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Damn, NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 MDT receives 9"+ in 7 hours. Kuchera output gives 11:1 ratios to MDT thanks to the fresh arctic air. If I can beat 9.5" with this it will surpass April 6, 1982 and be one day later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 1 minute ago, MAG5035 said: NAM 2m temps are in the mid-upper 20s while this is ongoing. Kuchera takes the warmest temp in the 500mb-surface part of the column and applies it to an equation to spit out the ratio.. so in this case the warmest temps would be at the surface and those kinds of temperatures with a spring storm is impressive. Even more impressive is the NAM's 850 temperatures.. at -6 to -10ºC in the region of C-PA where it's snowing.. in APRIL. That's also why the precip shield might have tightened up in this run.. this isn't no marginal sloppy wet snow look that's for sure. For instance the NAM has Harrisburg at 28-29ºF during the best precip (that's during the day mind you). Applying Kuchera to roughly -2ºC or 271K gives a ratio of 12:1. We've also seen in the last two events ratios that are greater than 10:1 even with having marginal at or near freezing temperatures. One has to remember the lifting processes that initiate snow growth go on higher up in the atmosphere, which is a bit of a drawback of the Kuchera. That method doesn't apply that stuff, which is why I don't like using it in marginal temp situations (with that said this does not looks like a marginal temp situation haha). If the rates are good and accumulations are established on the ground, you can get fluff bombed by the good flakes that pile up quickly even with marginal temps. No doubt rates matter right now. Thanks Mag. What a heck of a season you have had Spring wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 3K for what it is worth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 3K looks like heavy snow over the southern third of PA! Seems to be backing up 12K nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: 3K looks like heavy snow over the southern third of PA! Seems to be backing up 12K nicely. Yep. It does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Please just don't take the GFS for anything it is doing its norm right now. Euro/NAM has always been spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 GFS has been muuuuuch better this season than the Euro tho. And the NAM kinda caved to the 18z GFS. The 0z GFS is a pretty substantial shift south it appears. Richmond gets snow, it’s that south lol. Nearly no snow north of the border. Nada for MDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, canderson said: GFS has been muuuuuch better this season than the Euro tho. And the NAM kinda caved to the 18z GFS. The 0z GFS is a pretty substantial shift south it appears. Richmond gets snow, it’s that south lol. What season winter or spring? Nam/EURO has been much much better for us in the spring this is a joke. If you follow like I do, there is no way this doesn't come north. The NAM was a huge hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 The GFS run will cater to the MA forum that needs a relief. :-) But cannot understand your not 40N in April glad they can sleep tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Cmc was not good either, its definitely south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, daxx said: Cmc was not good either, its definitely south. I can't even access it right now. but regardless give me the NAM/Euro on my side back in the day they were 100% close to accurate. CMC I should have gotten 50 plus" of digit snow. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Just now, paweather said: I can't even access it right now. but regardless give me the NAM/Euro on my side have back in the day the were 100%. CMC I should have gotten 50 plus" of digit snow. LOL. Im not saying it is a great model, I was just saying it shifted South as well. Believe me I hope your right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 I'm right...:-) this thing is moving north. I'll bring it home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 For those of us with short term memory issues...here is how well the GFS did with our snowstorm 2 days ago. Please see this map below from 12z 4/1, Less than 24 hours before the event, it had the jackpot along the PA- MD line, & fringed areas near I-80. We all know how that turned out, with next to nothing near the MD border, to 5-6 inches near I-80 when all was said & done. The NAM & Euro will lead the way again with our Saturday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: For those of us with short term memory issues...here is how well the GFS did with our snowstorm 2 days ago. Please see this map below from 12z 4/1, Less than 24 hours before the event, it had the jackpot along the PA- MD line, & fringed areas near I-80. We all know how that turned out, with next to nothing near the MD border, to 5-6 inches near I-80 when all was said & done. The NAM & Euro will lead the way again with our Saturday storm. gte Thanks Blizz. Please everyone lets get over the GFS and CMC fantasy and focus on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 NAM/Euro will lead this storm. No doubt Blizz. Glad you reinforced it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Ukie at 8pm Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Some good news the gefs mean is north of the ops run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Add the Ukie to the way south camp. We lost several models tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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