April 2018 temperature forecast contest and Regional Rumble

[Roger Smith]

The regional rumble at last update from provisional March scoring looked like a fairly close race, and I think all regular entrants are still in the mix for the individual 2018 contest.

So make a note with this long Easter weekend ahead to enter before the late penalties start to dig in (reduced this year to 1% every four hours for first 36h, so if you wake up Sunday and remember, you're not looking at much of a penalty).

As always, we're predicting the temperature anomalies (in F deg) relative to 1981-2010 averages or "normals" if anything in this world can be described as normal. 

_______ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ______ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

Good luck, I plan to publicize the contest by booting the regional announcement threads on Thursday 29th or Friday 30th. 

[Tom]

DCA -1.1

NYC -0.9

BOS -0.8

ORD -1.1

ATL +0.2

IAH +1.2

DEN +0.8

PHX +0.8

SEA +0.9

 

Philly

[Stebo]

DCA -1.0

NYC -1.5

BOS -2.0

ORD -0.5

ATL +0.7

IAH +0.5

DEN -1.5

PHX +0.8

SEA +0.9

GL/OV

[so_whats_happening]

While I still remember, might have to readjust.

DCA +1.3

NYC +0.7

BOS -0.8

ORD -1.4

ATL +1.2

IAH +1.5

DEN +2.9

PHX+1.5

SEA+0.7

[Rjay]

DCA -2.5

NYC -3.0

BOS -3.0

ORD -1.5

ATL -1.0

IAH 0.0

DEN 0.0

PHX 0.0

SEA +0.5

 

NYC

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA -1.3

NYC -1.8

BOS -1.5

ORD -0.2

ATL +0.8

IAH +0.3

DEN -0.6

PHX +0.2

SEA +0.4

NYC

[jaxjagman]

DCA -1.0

NYC -1.3

BOS-1.8

ORD -0.8

ATL +1.4

IAH +1.0

DEN -0.3

PHX+0.7

SEA+0.9

 

TV

[Cerakoter1984]

 DCA +.07

NYC -1.7

BOS -0.9

ORD -2.0

ATL +0.3

IAH +0.7

DEN -5.2

PHX +3.7

SEA +2.1

Don't know if I'm allowed to participate but thought I'd try it out.

[wxallannj]

DCA -1.3

NYC -1.8

BOS -1.8

ORD -2.4

ATL +0.8

IAH  +1.3

DEN  +1.4

PHX  +1.8

SEA +0.3

 

NYC

[mappy]

DCA -0.7

NYC -1.1

BOS -1.6

ORD -0.1

ATL +0.9

IAH +0.8

DEN -0.9

PHX +1.1

SEA +0.2

Mid Atlantic 

[donsutherland1]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-1.1    -1.2      -1.5     -3.3    0.5     1.3        1.0     2.4    -0.4

NYC subforum

[dmillz25]

DCA -1.0

NYC -1.5

BOS -2.0

ORD -2.5

ATL +1.2

IAH  +1.3

DEN  +1.5

PHX  +1.5

SEA +1.5

NYC

 

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ______ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

0.5    0.0    -0.5       -0.5      1.0     1.0             1.0       1.5     1.0 

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-1.7    -2.4     -1.9     -5.0     0.2     0.9         1.0     3.2    -1.0

[Roger Smith]

--0.6 _ --0.8 _ --1.0 ___ --1.5 _ --1.2 _ +4.5 __ --0.8 _ +1.1 _ --1.0

[bkviking]

DCA -1.2

NYC -1.0

BOS -1.1

ORD -2.0

ATL +1.5

IAH  +1.0

DEN  +1.0

PHX  +1.6

SEA +0.8

[wxdude64]

Late again!

DCA: -0.9

NYC: -0.5

BOS: -1.0

ORD: -1.4

ATL: 0.0

IAH: +0.5

DEN: +1.1

PHX: +2.1

SEA: -0.3

[Orangeburgwx]

DCA  -.8

NYC -1.4

BOS -1.7

ORD -2.3

ATL +2.2

IAH  +.5

DEN  +1.6

PHX  +2.7

SEA +1.5

[Roger Smith]

Cerakoter1984, yes all are welcome here, and I treated your DCA forecast "as is" rounding it off, you may have meant +0.7 but it's a small points differential anyway.

I failed to notice that New England were a no show, did notice southeast and rustled up a forecast there, New England you can come in at 35% to end of today then I revert to "the dreaded clock" tick tock. Thank goodness I have a bit of backup again, this high-wire act cannot go on much longer before the NYC masses pick me apart in the secondary. Congrats to so_whats_happening, jaxjagman and Stebo for their lone wolf persistence with very (or pretty) good results for the RR and individually, considering the depth of the opposition (Mid Atl also rather formidable and the PHL duo are on fire, as per avatar). The rumble has not become a stumble yet. March results are posted, so_whats_happening leads (well actually Normal leads, gotta do something about that in April).

 

Table of forecasts April 2018

 

FORECASTER ___ Region ___ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

so_whats_happening PA/NY _+1.3 _+0.7 _--0.8 __ --1.4 _+1.2 _+1.5 __ +2.9 _+1.5 _+0.7

Cerakoter1984 __ C+W ____ +0.1 _--1.7 _--0.9 __ --2.0 _+0.3 _+0.7 __ --5.2 _+3.7 _+2.1

Scotty Lightning _ PHL _____ +0.5 __0.0 _--0.5 __ --0.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _+1.5 _+1.0

 

___ Normal _______________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0

 

Roger Smith ____ C+W ____--0.6 _--0.8 _--1.0 __ --1.5 _--1.2 _+4.5 __ --0.8 _+1.1 _--1.0

mappy _________ M A ____ --0.7 _--1.1 _--1.6 __ --0.1 _+0.9 _+0.8 __ --0.9 _+1.1 _+0.2

Orangeburgwx (-30%) SE __ --0.8 _--1.4 _--1.7 __ --2.3 _+2.2 _+0.5 __ +1.6 _+2.7 _+1.5

wxdude64 _ (-2%) M A ____ --0.9 _--0.5 _--1.0 __ --1.4 __0.0 _+0.5 __ +1.1 _+2.1 _--0.3

jaxjagman ______ TNV ____ --1.0 _--1.3 _--1.8 __ --0.8 _+1.4 _+1.0 __ --0.3 _+0.7 _+0.9

Stebo _________ GL/OV ___ --1.0 _--1.5 _--2.0 __ --0.5 _+0.7 _+0.5 __ --1.5 _+0.8 _+0.9

 

___ Consensus ___________ --1.0 _--1.3 _--1.5 __ --1.5 _+0.7 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _+1.5 _+0.4

 

dmillz25 ________ NYC ____ --1.0 _--1.5 _--2.0 __ --2.5 _+1.2 _+1.3 __ +1.5 _+1.5 _+1.5

Tom ___________ PHL _____--1.1 _--0.9 _--0.8 __ --1.1 _+0.2 _+1.2 __ +0.8 _+0.8 _+0.9

DonSutherland.1 _ NYC _____--1.1 _--1.2 _--1.5 __ --3.3 _+0.5 _+1.3 __ +1.0 _+2.4 _--0.4

BKViking _ (-2%)_ NYC _____--1.2 _--1.0 _--1.1 __ --2.0 _+1.5 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _+1.6 _+0.8

hudsonvalley21 __ NYC _____--1.3 _--1.8 _--1.5 __ --0.2 _+0.8 _+0.3 __ --0.6 _+0.2 _+0.4

wxallannj _______ NYC _____--1.3 _--1.8 _--1.8 __ --2.4 _+0.8 _+1.3 __ +1.4 _+1.8 _+0.3

RodneyS ________ M A _____--1.7 _--2.4 _--1.9 __--5.0 _+0.2 _+0.9 __ +1.0 _+3.2 _--1.0

RJay ___________ NYC _____--2.5 _--3.0 _--3.0 __--1.5 _--1.0 __0.0 ____0.0 __ 0.0 _+0.5

___________________________________________________________________________________

Consensus for 17 forecasts is median value (9th ranked).

Color coding (red, blue) shows the warmest and coldest forecasts.

Normal has more extreme (or equally) for several of those, but extremes among forecasters shown also.

Good luck, the snowfall contest continues to be updated in the February thread, before any updates today DonS and hudsonvalley21 were a close 1,2 in that.

Could go for a while yet as Canada exports its most famous natural resource at no cost. (and I don't mean Don Cherry but if you want him ... )

[Roger Smith]

First look at the anomalies after one week ... DCA a lot higher than NYC partly due to midnight high on 7th (67 deg) preventing a big negative anomaly. I calculate that the monthly effect of that is around +0.3. (20 deg for 1/60 of the total input). Just one of those things ... DEN estimated from data available, CF6 only updated to 5th (still no snowfall for 5th-6th to apply to contest although we all have lots to give yet as DEN was only 24.2" before this). Later edit, those days were posted all as trace amounts despite 1-3 inches around the Denver region at other sites. Moving on regardless ... 1.3" added eventually this month ...

** compare the actual 14th to the NWS predicted on 8th

## compare the actual 21st to the NWS predicted on 15th

^^ compare the actual 24th to the combined NWS + GFS 16d forecast from 8th

$$ compare the actual 28th to the NWS predicted on 22nd

 

________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _SEA

_ actual ___ (7d) _________ --0.3 _--4.6 _--3.3 __--12.9 _+1.1 _+2.7 ___ --3.0e_+8.6 _--0.1

_ actual ___(14 d) _________ 0.0 _--2.8 _--3.7 ___ --9.1 _--0.1 _--1.0 ___ +0.1 _+7.4 _--0.1 **

_ actual ___(21 d) ________ --2.1 _--4.8 _--4.3 __--10.0 _--1.9 _--2.1 ___ --0.7e_+4.1 _--0.6 ##

_ actual ___(24 d) ________ --2.0 _--4.1 _--3.6 ___ --8.4 _--1.8 _--2.4 ___ --0.9 _+4.3 _+0.1 ^^

_ actual ___(26 d) ________ --1.7 _--3.6 _--3.0 ___ --8.1 _--2.2 _--2.4 ___ --1.0 _+4.6 _+1.1 

_ actual ___(28 d) ________ --1.5 _--3.3 _--2.6 ___ --8.1 _--2.1 _--2.5 ___ --0.4 _+5.0 _+1.1 $$

_ actual ___(30 d) _ final ___ -1.9 _-3.6 _-2.8 ___ -7.7 _ -2.2 _ -2.6 ___ +0.4_+4.7_+1.0

 

seven day projections

_ 8th ____ (p14th - NWS) __--2.3 _--3.7 _--3.3 ___ --8.0 _--1.0 _+2.0 ___ --0.5 _ +7.5 _+0.1 **

_15th ____ (p21st - NWS) __--1.0 _--2.4 _--3.0 ___ --8.5 _--1.0 _--1.2 ___ +1.0 _ +5.3 _--0.3 ##

_22nd ____(p28th - NWS) __--2.4 _--4.0 _--3.0 ___ --8.0 _--2.0 _--2.2 ____ 0.0 _ +4.5 _+1.0 $$

 

eight to sixteen day projections (these end with 22nd, for later end of month projections, see new section to be added below after 24th)

_ 8th ___ (p24th - GFS) ___ --1.3 _--1.7 _--1.5 ___ --4.5 _+1.3 _+3.3 ___ +2.5 _+5.5 _+0.5 ^^

_15th __ (p30th - GFS) ____ --1.5 _--2.0 _--2.5 ___ --5.0 _--1.5 _--1.0 ___ --0.5 _+3.0 _--0.5

_22nd __(p30th - GFS d8,9)_ --2.0 _--3.5 _--3.0 ___ --6.0 _--2.0 _--2.0 ____ 0.0 _+4.0 _+0.5

_25th __(p30th - NWS 6d) __--2.0 _--3.0 _--2.5 ___ --6.0 _--2.0 _--2.5 ____ 0.0 _+4.0 _+1.0

_27th __(p30th - NWS 4d) __--2.0 _--3.0 _--2.5 ___ --7.0 _--2.5 _--2.5 ____ 0.0 _+4.0 _+1.0

_29th __(p30th - NWS 4d) __--2.0 _--3.5 _--2.5 ___ --7.0 _--2.5 _--2.5 ____ 0.0 _+4.5 _+1.0

final values when confirmed _--1.9 _--3.6 _--2.8 ___ --7.7 _--2.2 _--2.6 ___ +0.4 _+4.7 _+1.0

 

comments

15th _ Average NWS 7-d error about 1.1 deg, ranges from 2.3 at DCA (mostly because it turned so warm past two days) and 3.0 at IAH (generally too warm, my bias might have corrupted that somewhat), to only 0.1 at PHX and 0.2 at SEA. Also good at BOS (0.4 error there). The coming week appears cool to cold almost everywhere except slightly warmer than average at DEN and PHX, not as hot for PHX as the first half has been. The GFS indicates generally cooler than average from 22nd to end of month also, although PHX should stay closer to normal. On these projections, RodneyS does particularly well, his score would be 768/900. Consensus would be 624/900. 

22nd _ DEN was missing 21st from CF6, -14 anom and 1.3" snow on daily climate report, so adjusted the 0.0 reported after 20 days to -0.7 and will be updating the snowfall contest report back in the February thread (that will move to the May thread for its final days). Average NWS error once again similar to last report at 1.25 deg, considering the slight imprecision of my estimating from a rising temperature trend curve, could be anywhere from 0.5 to 2.0 in reality. The new end of month numbers are probably closing in on something reliable so I will generate a provisional scoring table later today. 

25th _ Worth noting that ATL received over 4" of rain in the past few days. Just a few minor changes to the end of month anomalies as we close in, the 16 day projections for the 24th were a mixture of good and mediocre, whether that was GFS pattern recognition flaws or my subjective bias at work, probably a combination of the two. Anyway, the average error (from 16 days ago, see the two lines in the table marked ^^) was 2.5 deg and the score for this forecast was fairly similar to our current consensus from the 1st or before, namely 442/900. IAH and DEN were furthest away from reality factoring in anomaly sign, ORD was recognized to be cold but not as cold as we've seen, and to some extent same for NYC and BOS. DCA, PHX and SEA were reasonably good for 16 days. I will update on 27th and 29th, 30th and finalize on May 1st. Will be adding annual updates soon as the scores seem to be reliable now. 

27th _ Adjusted ORD and ATL down, will make very little difference to results as these were already colder than any forecasts. 

29th _ NYC and PHX were adjusted at this late stage, next corrections will be final values. The NWS 7-day for 28th was quite accurate with an average error of only 0.4 deg. 

(final values being posted overnight May 1st, scoring adjusted as necessary) 

[Roger Smith]

Final scoring for April 2018

 

FORECASTER ___ Region__ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__ e/c __DEN_PHX_SEA__west __ TOTAL

 

RodneyS ________ M A _____96_ 76 _ 82 __ 254 __73_ 52 _ 30 __ 155 __ 409 __ 88 _ 70 _ 60 __ 218 ___ 627

RJay ___________ NYC _____88_ 88 _ 96__272 __ 15 _ 76 _ 60__ 151 __ 423__ 92 _ 06 _ 90 __ 188 ___ 611

DonSutherland.1 _ NYC _____84 _ 52 _ 74 __ 210 __ 39 _ 46 _ 22 __ 107 __ 317 __ 88 _ 54 _ 72 __ 214 ___ 531

wxallannj _______ NYC _____88 _ 64 _ 80 __ 232 __ 24 _ 40 _ 22 __ 086 __ 318 __ 80 _ 42 _ 86 __ 208 ___ 526

dmillz25 ________ NYC ____ 82 _ 58 _ 84 __ 224 __ 25 _ 32 _ 22 __ 079 __ 303 __ 78 _ 36 _ 90 __ 204 ___ 507

 

___ Consensus ___________ 82 _ 54 _ 74 __ 210 __ 15 _ 42 _ 28 __ 085 __ 295 __ 88 _ 36 _ 88 __ 212 ___ 507

 

Stebo _________ GL/OV ___ 82 _ 58 _  84 __ 224 __ 05 _ 42 _ 50 __ 097 __ 321 __ 62 _ 22 _ 98 __ 182 ___ 503

hudsonvalley21 __ NYC ____ 88 _ 64 _ 74 __ 226 __ 02 _ 40 _ 55 __ 097 __ 323 __ 80 _ 10 _ 88 __ 178 ___ 501

__wxdude64 _ (-2%) ______80 _ 38 _ 64 __ 182 __ 14 _ 56 _ 50 __ 120 __ 302 __ 86 _ 48 _ 74 __ 208 _510

wxdude64 _ (-2%) M A ____ 78 _ 37 _ 63 __ 178 __ 14 _ 55 _ 49 __ 118 __ 296 __ 84 _ 47 _ 73 __ 204 ___ 500

Tom ___________ PHL _____84 _ 46 _ 60 __ 190 __ 11 _ 52 _ 24 __ 087 __ 277 __ 92 _ 22 _ 98 __ 212 ___ 489

__BKViking _ (-2%)________ 86 _ 48 _ 66 __ 200 __ 20 _ 26 _ 28 __ 074 __ 274 __ 88 _ 38 _ 96 __ 222 _496

BKViking _ (-2%)_ NYC _____84 _ 47 _ 65 __ 196 __ 20 _ 25 _ 27 __ 072 __ 268 __ 86 _ 37 _ 94 __ 217 ___ 485

jaxjagman ______ TNV ____ 82 _ 54 _ 80 __ 216 __ 08 _ 28 _ 28 __ 064 __ 280 __ 86 _ 20 _ 98 __ 204 ___ 484

mappy _________ M A _____76 _ 50 _ 76 __ 202 __ 01 _ 38 _ 32 __ 071 __ 273 __ 74 _ 28 _ 84 __ 186 ___ 459 

Cerakoter1984 __ C+W ____ 60 _ 62 _ 62 __ 184 __ 20 _ 50 _ 36 __ 106 __ 290 __ 00 _ 80_ 78 __ 158 ___ 448

Roger Smith ____ C+W ____ 74 _ 44 _ 64 __ 182 __ 15 _ 80_ 00 __ 095 __ 277 __ 76 _ 28 _ 60 __ 164 ___ 441

 

___ Normal _____________ 62 _ 28 _ 44 __ 134 __ 00 _ 56 _ 60 __ 110 __ 250 __ 92 _ 06 _ 80 __ 178 ___ 428

 

Scotty Lightning _ PHL ____ 52 _ 28 _ 54 __ 134 __ 05 _ 36 _ 28 __ 065 __ 205 __ 88 _ 36 _100__ 224 ___ 427

__Orangeburgwx (-30%) __ 78 _ 56 _ 78 __ 212 __ 23 _ 12 _ 50 __ 085 __ 297 __ 76 _ 60 _ 90 __226 _523

Orangeburgwx (-30%) SE __ 55 _ 39 _ 55 __ 149 __ 16 _ 08 _ 35 __ 059 __ 208 __ 53 _ 42 _ 63 __ 158 ___ 366

so_whats_happening PA/NY_ 36 _ 14 _ 60 __ 110 __ 14 _ 32 _ 18 __ 060 __ 176 __ 50 _ 36 _ 94 __ 180 ___ 356

 

Regional Rumble

 

This is really a rumble now, I have posted the annual total to show how this month has tightened up the rumble.

April brings both NYC and MidAtl past former leaders C+W followed in March by PHL. But it's still quite close among the four.

 

Region _____________________ Eastern ___ Central ___ Western ____ TOTAL _____ new annual total

 

New York City _________________ 272 ______ 151 ______ 217 _______ 640 _______ 2161 (1)

Mid Atlantic ___________________ 254 ______ 155 ______ 218 _______ 627 _______ 2148 (2)

___ Consensus_________________ 210 ______ 085 ______ 212 _______ 507 _______ 1668(7)

Great Lakes / Ohio valley ________ 224 ______ 097 ______ 182 _______ 503 _______ 1511 (7)

Philadelphia ___________________ 190 ______ 087 ______ 224 _______ 501 _______ 2091 (3)

TN Valley _____________________ 216 ______ 064 ______ 204 _______ 484 _______ 1708 (6)

Central + Western ______________184 ______ 106 ______ 164 _______ 454 _______ 2086 (4)

___ Normal ____________________134 ______ 116 ______ 178 _______ 428 _______ 1908 (5)

Southeast _____________________149 ______ 059 ______ 158 _______ 366 _______ 1510 (8)

PA / NY _______________________110 ______ 064 ______ 180 _______ 354 _______ 1777 (5)

________________________________________________________________________________

________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

[Roger Smith]

--- -- <<<<==== Annual Updated Scoring Jan - Apr 2018 ====>>>> -- ----

 

Part One: Eastern and Central (Original Six) 

... best scores, first six numbers are for six locations, next two for eastern and central totals, then months won (red)

... station totals in red indicate best total scores, eastern and central in bold indicate best subtotals.

... when normal or consensus have high scores, forecasters with high scores also shown

 

 

FORECASTER _______ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ east ____ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ cent ___ TOTAL __ Best scores

 

___Normal _________234 _207 _269 ____ 710____ 242 _215 _077 ____ 534 ___1244 ___ 000 101 .0.0

 

wxdude64 _________ 240 _219 _245 ____ 704____ 168 _211 _091 ____ 470 ___ 1174 ___ 110 000 .1.0

hudsonvalley21 _____ 211 _204 _208 ____ 623 ____ 121 _231 _195 ____ 547 ___ 1170 ___

Roger Smith ________244 _216 _216 ____ 676 ____ 187 _260 _046 ____ 493 ___ 1169 ___ 111 020 .1.0

so_whats_happening _143 _166 _240 ____ 549 ____ 208 _237 _147 ____ 592___ 1141 ___ 000 111 .0.1 __ FEB

Scotty Lightning (SD) _207 _187 _266 ____ 660 ____ 217 _167 _087 ____ 471 ___ 1131 ___ 000 100 .0.1

RJay ______________166 _202 _231 ____ 599 ____ 107 _236 _179 ____ 522 ___ 1121 ___ 011 001 .1.0 __ APR

jaxjagman _________ 192 _154 _244 ____ 590 ____ 124 _218 _148 ____ 490 ___ 1080 ___ 001 000 .0.0

DonSutherland.1 ___  190 _170 _198 ____ 558 ____ 129 _246 _143 ____ 518 ___ 1076 ___

RodneyS __________ 196 _174 _184 ____ 554 ____ 171 _224 _110 ____ 505 ___ 1059 ___ 200 200 .0.2 __ MAR

 

___Consensus ______ 181 _171 _216 ____ 568 ____ 137 _210 _127 ____ 474 ___ 1042 ___

 

Stebo _____________ 156 _152 _214 ____ 522 ____ 145 _198 _170 ____ 513 ___ 1035 ___ 000 001 .0.0

mappy ____________ 152 _155 _235 ____ 542 ____ 129 _184 _168 ____ 481 ___ 1023 ___ 001 000 .0.0

BKViking ___________191 _191 _218 ____ 600 ____ 107 _171 _133 ____ 411 ___ 1011 ___

wxallannj __________ 172 _176 _202 ____ 550 ____ 120 _188 _149 ____ 457 ___ 1007 ___ 000 001

Tom ______________ 158 _162 _200 ____ 520 ____ 103 _220 _078 ____ 401 ____ 921 ___

dmillz25 ___________ 167 _127 _154 ____ 448 ____ 152 _188 _112 ____ 452 ____ 900 ___ 000 010 .0.0

Mercurial (2/4) ______146 _150 _133 ____ 429 ____ 110 _132 _084 ____ 326 ____ 755 ___ 110 000 .1.0 __ JAN

H2O_Town_WX (3/4)_086 _105 _155 ____ 346 ____ 158 _052 _051 ____ 261 ____ 607 ___ 001 000 .0.0

Orangeburgwx _(3/4)_060 _108 _142 ____ 310 ____ 089 _022 _104 ____ 215 ____ 525 ___

H2O ___(2/4) ______ 094 _091 _071 ____ 256 ____ 056 _125 _072 ____ 253 ____ 509 ___ 000 010 .0.0

nrgJeff _ (2/4) ______116 _092 _064 ____ 272 ____ 004 _095 _037 ____ 136 ____ 408 ___

buckeyefan (1 mo J) _ 050 _066 _048 ____ 164 ____ 018 _092 _036 ____ 146 ____ 310 ___

Cerakoter1984 (1moA)_060_062 _062 ____ 184 ____ 020 _050 _036 ____ 106 ____ 290 ___ 

tnweathernut(1 mo J)_ 067_056 _036 ____ 159 ____ 029 _067 _023 ____ 119 ____ 278 ___

CPcantmeasuresnow _ 002 _000 _000 ____ 002 ____ 038 _008 _040 ____ 086 ____ 088 ___

_________ (1 mo F) _^^

note: all shown (2/4) missed March and April, Orangeburgwx (3/4) missed January and H2OTown_wx (3/4) missed April.

 

Part Two: Western and All Nine contests

... best total scores in red for three locations, best scores in months shown after total score, high western totals

for months in red ... all nine totals are shown with ranks, order of table is western scoring

 

FORECASTER __________ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ____ TOTAL (west) __ best scores (mo) ____ All Nine (= rank)

Scotty Lightning (SD) ____ 222 _ 228 _ 310 _____ 760 __________ 0 0 2 __ Apr ______1891 (= 1)

 

__Normal ______________216 _ 178 _ 270 _____ 664 __________ 1 1 1 _____________1908  (= 1) __ FEB

 

BKViking _______________184 _ 216 _ 264 _____ 664 __________ 0 0 0 _____________1675 (= 8)

Tom __________________ 218 _ 192 _ 242 _____ 652 __________ 1 0 0 _____________1573 (=12)

so_whats_happening _____182 _ 227 _ 227 _____ 636 __________ 0 0 0 _____________1777 (= 2) __ FEB

 

__ Consensus __________ 186 _ 198 _ 242 _____ 626 __________ 0 0 0 _____________1668 (= 9)

 

wxallannj ______________ 178 _ 220 _ 224 _____ 622 __________ 1 1 0 __ Mar _______1629 (=11)

DonSutherland.1 ________ 212 _ 184 _ 220 _____ 616 __________ 0 0 1 __ Jan _______1692 (= 7)

hudsonvalley21 _________ 188 _ 165 _ 253 _____ 606 __________ 0 0 0 _____________1776 (= 3)

RodneyS_______________ 176 _ 252 _ 168 _____ 596 __________ 0 1 0 _____________1655 (=10) __ MAR, APR

wxdude64 _____________ 194 _ 171 _ 221 _____ 586 __________ 0 0 0 _____________1760 (= 4)

Roger Smith ____________180 _ 186 _ 212 _____ 578 __________ 0 0 0 __ Jan _______1747 (= 5)

RJay __________________168 _ 158 _ 248 _____ 574 __________ 1 0 0 _____________1695 (= 6)

jaxjagman _____________ 160 _ 174 _ 236 _____ 570 __________ 0 0 0 _____________1664 (= 9)

Orangeburgwx (3/4)______199 _ 162 _ 197 _____ 558 __________ 1 1 1 __ Feb _______1083 (=16)

dmillz25 _______________ 161 _ 177 _ 182 _____ 520 __________ 0 0 0 _____________1420 (=15)

Stebo _________________ 120 _ 164 _ 192 _____ 476 __________ 0 0 0 _____________1511 (=13)

mappy _________________118 _ 142 _ 175 _____ 435 __________ 0 0 0 _____________1458 (=14)

H2OTown__WX (3/4) ____ 053 _ 180 _ 139 _____ 372 __________ 0 0 0 ______________ 979 (=18)

Mercurial __ (2/4) _______ 080 _ 120 _ 078 _____ 278 __________ 1 0 0 _____________1033 (=17) __ JAN

nrgJeff ____ _(2/4) ______ 042 _ 084 _ 060 _____ 186 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 594 (=20)

H2O ____ (2/4) _________ 052 _ 082 _ 047 _____ 181 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 690 (=19)

cerakoter (1 mo Apr) _____ 000 _ 080 _ 078 _____ 158 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 448 (=21)

tnweathernut (1 mo Jan) __045 _ 058 _ 050 _____ 153 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 431 (=23)

buckeyewx __(1 mo Jan) __042 _ 034 _ 046 _____ 122 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 432 (=22)

CPcantmeasuresnow (1-F)_ 000 _ 030 _ 012 _____ 042 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 130 (=24)

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Regional Rumble (Total scores Jan-Apr) 

 

Region __________________ Eastern __ Central __ Western ____ TOTALS 

 

NYC ______________________725 _____ 640 _____ 796 ________2161

Mid Atlantic ________________818 _____ 657 _____ 673 ________2148

PHL ______________________780 _____ 527 _____ 784 ________2091

Central + Western __________ 830 _____ 632 _____ 624 ________2086

 

___Normal ________________ 710 _____ 534 _____ 664 ________1908

 

PA / NY ___________________549 _____ 592 _____ 636 ________1777

TN Valley _________________ 638 _____ 490 _____ 580 ________1708

 

___ Consensus _____________568 _____ 474 _____ 626 ________1668

 

Great Lakes Ohio valley ______ 522 _____ 513 _____ 476 ________1511

Southeast _________________ 474 _____ 361 _____ 675 ________1510

New England _______________346 _____ 261 _____ 372 ________ 979

 

[Roger Smith]

Extreme forecast update

 

It is the same story as most months, fortune favored the brave ... but you have to know which way to go (said IAH +4.5 zero points) ...

 

DCA _ Finished -1.9, RodneyS (-1.7) win, RJay (-2.5) loss.

NYC _ Finished -3.6, a win for RJay (-3.0).

BOS _ Finished -2.8, another win for RJay (-3.0) as dmillz25 (-2.0) and Stebo (-2.0) now out of the tie.

ORD (finished -7.7) is a romp for RodneyS who is at -5.0.

ATL (finished -2.2) is a win for Roger Smith at -1.2.

IAH (finished -2.6) is a lame duck "extreme forecast" in that nobody went negative, RJay and Normal split this one at 0.0.

DEN and SEA did not go extreme.

PHX (finished +4.7) is a win for new forecast contest entrant Cerakoter1984 who predicted +3.7. 

 

 

Extreme Forecasts wins and losses

 

Roger Smith __________ 5-0

RodneyS _____________ 4-1

__ Normal ____________ 4-1

Orangeburgwx ________ 3-0*

wxallannj _____________3-0

RJay ________________ 3-1

so_whats_happening ___ 2-0

wxdude64 ____________ 2-0

DonSutherland1 ________1-0

Mercurial _____________ 1-0

NRG Jeff ______________1-0

Stebo ________________ 1-0

H2OTown_wx _________ 1-1

Scotty Lightning (SD)____1-1

cerakoter1984 _________ 1-0

* no decision (Mar for IAH)