SnowGolfBro Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 A thread to keep our focus on the Palm Sunday Storm. Models are showing the Southern tier of our forum with a shot at accumulating snow Saturday night. We need a north trend and this thread is intended to get us all in the game. Here we go again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 We should definitely pin this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 17 minutes ago, ravensrule said: We should definitely pin this thread. May as well...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Great thread so far. 18z 12K NAM is closer I guess. Not much else to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 You can see on h5 the confluence over the northeast moves out a little quicker compared to the 12z run. Allows the system to get further east before diving south. We need more of that to have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Whoever ends up in the stripe of snow will probably end up with a nice 4 to 8 inch event. The mountains of west va and south west va look like a prime location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 22, 2018 Author Share Posted March 22, 2018 28 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Great thread so far. 18z 12K NAM is closer I guess. Not much else to watch. Right where we want in it. I smell a good NAM'ing this time tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Let's see if happy hour GFS delivers with some degree of northern shift as well. I think it was Mt Holly that mentioned they didn't really trust the further south solutions yet and LWX still has west of Blue Ridge in yellow for winter storm threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Here comes THE MOST IMPORTANT GFS RUN OF THE YEAR! Where's @Ji? We need him to have any chance of success with this one.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 22, 2018 Author Share Posted March 22, 2018 1 minute ago, MountainGeek said: Here comes THE MOST IMPORTANT GFS RUN OF THE YEAR! Where's Ji? We need him to have any chance of success with this one.... The most important GFS run of...THE SPRING! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Cranky... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 22, 2018 Author Share Posted March 22, 2018 2 minutes ago, Scraff said: Cranky... Adjust that North and East 150 miles and I think it will be pretty good. The Trend is my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 It's not happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Anyone check the Euro? funny how the Post storm hangover sits with all! Some try and drink more, but the beer has become stale! The upper levels on the GFS says it is gonna get shredded and race SE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 23 minutes ago, Scraff said: Cranky... What is he basing that off of? No model shows 4 inches into central md. Not even close..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Anything can happen at night thru about 4/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 40 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: Let's see if happy hour GFS delivers with some degree of northern shift as well. I think it was Mt Holly that mentioned they didn't really trust the further south solutions yet and LWX still has west of Blue Ridge in yellow for winter storm threat. The 18z 12k Nam has shifted significantly north, giving my area 5 inches compared to 1 inch at 12z. The 3k Nam has also shifted north giving my area 3 inches compared to .5 inch at 12z. The 18z GFS has shifted north a little giving me 1 inch compared to .5 inch at 12z. The 00z runs will be interesting! Will this northward shift continue?? If the confluence and blocking to the north weakens, it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 What is he basing that off of? No model shows 4 inches into central md. Not even close..lolIt's a rangeWhy do people only see the high value Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 I’d like to see the gfs come north a little on 0z or 6z. Wave 1 was a bit north of expectations even with the blocking so maybe this can be similar. The vort has west coast origins so it might have more juice than your typical clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 13 minutes ago, Jandurin said: It's a range Why do people only see the high value But no model shows 1 inch either..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: But no model shows 1 inch either..lol Guess that's why they call I forecasting and not modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 But no model shows 1 inch either..lolA much better argument Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 I like where it is currently sitting....however, you know the theory of being the bullseye to early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 8 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Guess that's why they call I forecasting and not modeling. Lol. I would love to have this track 150 - 200 miles further east and give us a good thumping but every model pushes and shredds this system south and west of us. I hope he sees something the models don't right now. Of topic - Glad to see the O's signed Cobb. Their rotation should be much better this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Lol. I would love to have this track 150 - 200 miles further east and give us a good thumping but every model pushes and shredds this system south and west of us. I hope he sees something the models don't right now. Of topic - Glad to see the O's signed Cobb. Their rotation should be much better this year. Yeah it was a solid pick-up. I'm a lot less worried about the track than it simply being shredded. Track obviously isn't good for us right now either, but who knows. The band of best snows is so narrow and within that band, it's really just going to be a very isolated spot in the mountains somewhere that gets clobbered. At least that's what I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 5 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Lol. I would love to have this track 150 - 200 miles further east and give us a good thumping but every model pushes and shredds this system south and west of us. I hope he sees something the models don't right now. Of topic - Glad to see the O's signed Cobb. Their rotation should be much better this year. The WPC also sees something that the 12z models didn't see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 22, 2018 Author Share Posted March 22, 2018 7 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Lol. I would love to have this track 150 - 200 miles further east and give us a good thumping but every model pushes and shredds this system south and west of us. I hope he sees something the models don't right now. Of topic - Glad to see the O's signed Cobb. Their rotation should be much better this year. fellow BrO's fans! I was pumped about that too. With Buck at the helm I always feel like we have a chance to overachieve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 12k NAM gets precip pretty close to the area and some of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 almost looks like the nam might be allowing for a further north track this run. still have a wall in the northeast, but it looks a little more relaxed so far. thru 42. could also just be a few hours slower this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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