wncsnow Posted March 24, 2018 Author Share Posted March 24, 2018 Almost all guidance has it touching 50 tomorrow in Piedmont of VA/Northern NC. Timing has slowed down allowing more sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 Wow, did the models really screw us this bad at last second? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 Enjoy your sunny saturday morning and watch your chances for snow go poof! Its March, its the south, and its all about timing. We're gonna lose this battle in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 IDK, but it's 32 here ATM and clouds are beginning to show coming in from the NW...here it comes...and IMO none of the models have nailed this so we're hunting blackbirds in the dark...that's just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 I usually tend to downplay surface temps as an issue (it seems these usually take care of themselves given enough rates and mid-level warm noses more often kill us), but this is late March, so it’s a pretty valid concern. Regardless, you’d think roads should mostly be okay given the time of year/sun angle and how warm it’s been. Still hoping to see some snow here in Greensboro since I never get to see snow anymore, but my hope is waning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 The sun is at the same angle it is late first week of September,peak of hurricane season. Chew on that. It's all about the clouds showing up at daybreak and locking in. You get milky clouds and the BL like Webb said is gonna torch up into the 40s, to high to recover from in my opinion. All that sun needs is about 90 to 120 minutes in the morning and it will put the nail in the coffin for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 13 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Enjoy your sunny saturday morning and watch your chances for snow go poof! Its March, its the south, and its all about timing. We're gonna lose this battle in NC. Yep if it’s sunny it’s on to golf! Which is fine to me!! Lol BTW- I thought we wasn’t going to to worry about temps to much with this historic HP? Wow I’ve wasted a lot of time on this stupid storm. Oh well !! I'm sitting at 35/22 and the storm is delayed! lol . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 Took the dog out before bed and a blast of cold air came across the mountain as the clouds were rolling in...gonna hit the hay for a couple of hours. Temp at 31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 0z RGEM looks the best it's looked for the N.Foothills? What gives?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForsythWx Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 RGEM with quite a bit more action from ~ Winston-Salem west. First image is 18z, second is 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 I've become aware that despite surface High strength (this one is 1044mb), the Pacific pattern and especially Alaska/EPO is really significant for colder surface and short term temperature busts (-epo is cold/+epo is warm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 The latest HRRR has precip here in 9 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 Everybody went to bed after the GFS. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 24, 2018 Author Share Posted March 24, 2018 2 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Everybody went to bed after the GFS. lol I'm trying to stay up and see if the Euro holds serve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 21 minutes ago, wncsnow said: I'm trying to stay up and see if the Euro holds serve Yeah I just can't believe the Euro being off that bad, after couple days being consistent? Of course it could be wrong!! If Euro holds I'm going down with it. And toss the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 24, 2018 Author Share Posted March 24, 2018 It may not mean much but its 29/23 here and they forecasted a low of 33. Short range models have it in the upper 30s at initialization.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 4 minutes ago, wncsnow said: It may not mean much but its 29/23 here and they forecasted a low of 33. Short range models have it in the upper 30s at initialization.. I'm at 34/22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 FWIW-Dt about an hour ago! Start times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 Pretty sure DT is going way overboard with those totals (outside of the mountains, at least), but I’ll hug it. LOL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 6 minutes ago, superjames1992 said: Pretty sure DT is going way overboard with those totals (outside of the mountains, at least), but I’ll hug it. LOL... He always hugs the Euro!! 0z Euro is going to be interesting to see if it holds among this last minute (possible failure)!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForsythWx Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 Extremely tight gradient through Forsyth county on the 00z euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 Well it was fun while it lasted on tracking this... but most of what I see now totals are greatly reduced in my area all of a sudden... kinda stinks to see it go that way this close... oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 6z NAM will wake up some people south of I40, but I refuse to be NAM'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomanslandva Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 RGEM trending back north and NAM trending South with QPF, hard to tell what will happen. Virga breaking out to my southwest so maybe we can at least lock in the cold. 30/19 now. HRRR looks north of other stuff with QPF but pretty warm too. Tight gradient right through rke county so hoping I am not watching all the good bands just to my SW all evening. Sick/cold, so nothing better to do but watch radar and models today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spidyr2k Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 snowing in Boone, fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 1 hour ago, nomanslandva said: RGEM trending back north and NAM trending South with QPF, hard to tell what will happen. Virga breaking out to my southwest so maybe we can at least lock in the cold. 30/19 now. HRRR looks north of other stuff with QPF but pretty warm too. Tight gradient right through rke county so hoping I am not watching all the good bands just to my SW all evening. Sick/cold, so nothing better to do but watch radar and models today. HRRR always runs warm my man. Don’t use it for temp purposes. I see everyone has lost their sh*t here lol. I’m sure thermals will be a little better than what some of the models show. I will say though the HRRR looks great for qpf and precip in our parts. I see some of the models trended a little further north overnight with the heavier qpf, so that should make us personally feel a little better up this way to achieve some of the totals we’ve seen the last couple days. Radar looks to have the precip building on the north side of the heavier echoes so clouds should be getting in here fast. I am at 28 right now. I feel good about this one for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 1 hour ago, nomanslandva said: RGEM trending back north and NAM trending South with QPF, hard to tell what will happen. Virga breaking out to my southwest so maybe we can at least lock in the cold. 30/19 now. HRRR looks north of other stuff with QPF but pretty warm too. Tight gradient right through rke county so hoping I am not watching all the good bands just to my SW all evening. Sick/cold, so nothing better to do but watch radar and models today. That’s also why I said the other day don’t trust the Nam in its entirety. It’s been so jumpy at least the second half of winter with qpf maximums when a winter storm is basically upon us. It also sucked a** last night with thermals and expected lows. Was off several degrees. I’ll cheer to you later with a beer in my hand watching it pour down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StoneColdWeatherAustin Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 I will agree. I am sitting at 40 in Winston with clouds locked in and precipitation already over me on radar. There will be no 50 here. If anything busts, it will surely be the overnight model packages.Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 Sitting at 37/28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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