sarcean Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 Maybe it was posted but Winter Storm warning (was a watch) for Boone and surrounding areas ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Initial snow will begin early Saturday morning, transitioning over to sleet, freezing rain or cold rain Saturday afternoon and evening. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with localized amounts up to 8 inches, and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch are expected. * WHERE...In Virginia, Grayson County. In North Carolina, Ashe, Alleghany NC and Watauga Counties. * WHEN...From 5 AM Saturday to noon EDT Sunday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Be prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 Experimental HRRR for 2am Sunday. Take it with a grain of salt but worth anazlying to see how well it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 4 hours ago, BornAgain13 said: Yeah but then you see this and realize the models just dont know lol Can you link the source on this, I am having trouble finding it? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 HRDPS and HRRRX seem to be the more wintry mesoscale models for NC, HRDPS is a huge hit in NW NC mtns. NAM is warmer, none of the NAMS like the snow potential. This will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 Letting it ride on the Waffle Model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 Both the RGEM and GGEM are nuisance type SN events for NW NC and SW VA but with major icing down the spine of the Apps in W NC. I am kicking around the idea of heading to SW VA in the early AM for a quick overnight chase, Copper Hill - Wytheville area with some elevation but I have pause given the guidance. 8-12" would be a successful chase but I don't have a warm and fuzzy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 51 minutes ago, wake4est said: Letting it ride on the Waffle Model LOL. That model needs to be tossed out on it's head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 2 hours ago, wake4est said: Letting it ride on the Waffle Model Looks like a whole lot of syrup and a side of bacon with that waffle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 2 hours ago, WeatherNC said: Both the RGEM and GGEM are nuisance type SN events for NW NC and SW VA but with major icing down the spine of the Apps in W NC. I am kicking around the idea of heading to SW VA in the early AM for a quick overnight chase, Copper Hill - Wytheville area with some elevation but I have pause given the guidance. 8-12" would be a successful chase but I don't have a warm and fuzzy. Copper Hill will be a good spot. That mountain ridge and the 221 corridor from southern Roanoke County into Floyd County should do very well with this. I will be in that area tomorrow and Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 9 minutes ago, Disc said: Copper Hill will be a good spot. That mountain ridge and the 221 corridor from southern Roanoke County into Floyd County should do very well with this. I will be in that area tomorrow and Sunday. Disc, Do you work at RNK? I see you from Blacksburg!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 3 hours ago, snowlover91 said: Experimental HRRR for 2am Sunday. Take it with a grain of salt but worth anazlying to see how well it does. How do you get to the 36 hr HRRR map......I dont see anything past 18 hrs on Tropical Tidbits..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 24, 2018 Author Share Posted March 24, 2018 This NAM run is warmer for southside and amounts are going to decrease Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: This NAM run is warmer for southside and amounts are going to decrease The NAM run is 7 degrees warmer for Danville compared to 18z once the precip starts.... woww... maybe a fluke? Maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 24, 2018 Author Share Posted March 24, 2018 Big decrease for most areas actually. More likely scenario and in line with other guidance Cut totals in half lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 Totals might be accurate, but I find it hard to believe that a 7 degree temperature difference from 18z to 0z changed that quick... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 Just now, wncsnow said: Big decrease for most areas actually. More likely scenario and in line with other guidance Cut totals in half lol I’m sorry but idk if it’s the Kuchera ratio thing or what but I do not buy places like Avery county getting only a dusting. Tropical tidbits maps for NAM seem more plausible and in line with the Euro. Also, ice threat is really increasing for eastern slopes and immediate foothills counties as this NAM run was a degree or two colder for these areas Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 3k NAM is a little colder than 12K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 24, 2018 Author Share Posted March 24, 2018 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 3k NAM is a little colder than 12K Not really. Only gets to 34 in Danville during heavy precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 NAM I guess came to reality... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 Disc, get your weenie out. That is one hell of a hit for ROA and BBurg! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 Can anyone explain to me why the NAM showed a 7 degree difference in temp with 0z compared to 18z for southern VA? 18z had Danville at 39 when precip started, 0z says 46?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 46 minutes ago, downeastnc said: How do you get to the 36 hr HRRR map......I dont see anything past 18 hrs on Tropical Tidbits..... NM I see how the HRRRX is 36 hrs on the 00Z run, but it shows only 18 on the previous ones.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 45 minutes ago, downeastnc said: How do you get to the 36 hr HRRR map......I dont see anything past 18 hrs on Tropical Tidbits..... HRRRX model at 00z, 06z, 12z and 18z on there usually has it out to 36 hours. It’s experimental though so take it FWIW. For those wondering about the NAM temp difference, it’s due to a slower onset of clouds and precip allowing for more warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Can anyone explain to me why the NAM showed a 7 degree difference in temp with 0z compared to 18z for southern VA? 18z had Danville at 39 when precip started, 0z says 46?? Im not sure man but I can tell you the temps are dropping like a rock outside with clear skies and calm winds right now. I see Danville on wunderground is at 37. I am at 36. We both know a lot of times these systems move in quicker than progged. Earlier the moisture gets in here imo the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 Sitting at 40/22 in Frosty Land !! Yeah I’m with you buddy quicker the precip gets in here the better. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 Just now, BIG FROSTY said: Sitting at 40/22 in Frosty Land !! Yeah I’m with you buddy quicker the precip gets in here the better. . My thermometer is at 34...concerned about the IP/ZR...hope that we don't have a lot...generator still in storage down the mountain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 My thermometer is at 34...concerned about the IP/ZR...hope that we don't have a lot...generator still in storage down the mountainYeah hope those big ice runs don’t verify up there!!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 Was looking on the NCCO database to see the last major ZR event here in WNC...can't remember if it was 2006 or 2005...but I remember bringing my girls up that spring and parts of the parkway around Beacon Heights and Flat Rock looked like a bomb hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 24, 2018 Author Share Posted March 24, 2018 GFS is WAYYY too warm for anyone outside higher elevations. Doesnt switchover until too late in Danville or Northern NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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