Coach McGuirk Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 Looking more like a non event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 35 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: This is going to be so close here in McDowell. Could be where Woodlawn and the Cove sees snow and south of 40 not much. Going to be that close. Yep. Running a race 25K in Montreat tomorrow that will take us to the top of greybeard. Hoping the roads are solid but the trails are white Going to be close and very much elevation depended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 1 minute ago, strongwxnc said: Yep. Running a race 25K in Montreat tomorrow that will take us to the top of greybeard. Hoping the roads are solid but the trails are white Going to be close and very much elevation depended. Oh yeah Mark the Montreat area could do very well in this set up. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 Although the GFS is different, it does make me feel pretty good that the Hi-Res RGEM has a major event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 Even with the Kuchera the diff between the GFS and NAM are absurd. One shows 6” in Boone and the other 0.1” I know NAM shows a lot of IP/ZR but with the amount of precip coming this way I’d think there would be more concern from NWS.Yeah Blacksburg is bugging me with the lack of ice concern. Gfs does horribly with warm noses hence the big difference. NAM is almost entirely zr for Boone. Sent from my SM-G930R7 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 I personally just have a hard time buying the Nam with its depiction of expected snowfall. The GFS, RGEM, HRDPS, etc are all south and west. I have a feeling someone in the northern piedmont and NWNC mountains cash in. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 Yeah but then you see this and realize the models just dont know lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 Kind of silly we all have all these varying solutions to something that starts early tomorrow. Its not like we are talking a week out or even several days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 4 minutes ago, sarcean said: Kind of silly we all have all these varying solutions to something that starts early tomorrow. Its not like we are talking a week out or even several days out I'd rather have it like this than the models showing a big storm here a few days out that usually doesn't verify. We usually do better around here when things keep changing and are unknown up until the storm unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 Yeah but then you see this and realize the models just dont know lol I didn't realize the experimental went that far out. Sent from my SM-G930R7 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 Euro stays about the same... big snows SW VA, around 4" in mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 23, 2018 Author Share Posted March 23, 2018 New EURO looks very much like last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 Just now, wncsnow said: New EURO looks very much like last run. Yep, 4" in Danville, big totals in SW VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 23, 2018 Author Share Posted March 23, 2018 Euro snowmap for those who may be wondering.. use caution as the ratios are likely off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 Going to be close here. 1 or 2 degrees can make all the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 ARW-2 is incredibly bullish for the system, as is the ARW. Here is the ARW-2 output at 10:1, I would cut these totals in half to one-third to get a more realistic idea based on it being a heavy wet snow, but still impressive with 1-1.5" of qpf falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 13 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: ARW-2 is incredibly bullish for the system, as is the ARW. Here is the ARW-2 output at 10:1, I would cut these totals in half to one-third to get a more realistic idea based on it being a heavy wet snow, but still impressive with 1-1.5" of qpf falling. I'd be fine with only 4 to 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 Eric Webb makes a good point: The Euro's 850 hPa temps are colder than the last run and all that would need to happen is the surface to cool another degree or so on the model and you're looking at heavy, wet snow into the Triangle area and the rest of the US 64 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 17 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: ARW-2 is incredibly bullish for the system, as is the ARW. Here is the ARW-2 output at 10:1, I would cut these totals in half to one-third to get a more realistic idea based on it being a heavy wet snow, but still impressive with 1-1.5" of qpf falling. lol that hole is right over Rockingham UGH!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 Interesting tidbit from NWS GSP: Quote .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 130 PM: Developing low pressure in the lee of the Rockies will begin to move through the Plains late this aftn and evening. A warm front will activate ahead of it, initially over the mid-Mississippi Valley. The axis of a midlevel ridge will shift overhead tonight as the warm front edges its way eastward, setting up from eastern KY to the NC Piedmont by Saturday morning. However, weak upglide will develop over our mountains well before dawn, and that is when precip chances are expected to quickly increase. Unfortunately it`s not looking like the event will unfold in a straightforward manner from that point. It looks likely that temperature profiles will feature non-freezing values only in the sfc layer, but the arrival of the warm front will gradually change that, introducing a warm nose. While warm advection generally should continue through the day, 850mb plots from the NAM/GFS seem to reflect wet-bulb cooling for a time after the onset of precip. Even the development of the warm nose thus looks difficult to time. Furthermore, as CAD begins to develop over the course of the day, sfc temps will remain cool across the northern mtns and NW NC Piedmont, which will maintain the possibility of wintry wx. This will be a tough p-type fcst for the mountains and I-40 corridor. Additional details to come after the aftn fcst pkg is finalized in collaboration with neighboring offices. Basically, they want to "phone a friend" for help on this forecast. I don't blame them. I would want to do so too. There is so much varying guidance on where the heaviest axis of precipitation will be, and the difference of one or two degrees will create vastly different outcomes in sensible weather. Tough call on this one...but when is it not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 Wonder if RAH might hoist some advisories for the Triad area with the afternoon package? There at least looks to be some potential for something with this one. I'm in Greensboro through Sunday afternoon, so it would be pretty cool to see some wintry precip... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 Better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 ARW-2 is incredibly bullish for the system, as is the ARW. Here is the ARW-2 output at 10:1, I would cut these totals in half to one-third to get a more realistic idea based on it being a heavy wet snow, but still impressive with 1-1.5" of qpf falling. Yeah but then you see this and realize the models just dont know lol [mention=14076]SteveVa[/mention] and I both know that isn't happening with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PGAWx Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 23, 2018 Author Share Posted March 23, 2018 18Z NAM is not backing down for southside VA and Roanoke- Blacksburg-Wytheville area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 18z NAM Sticking to its GUNS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 Last 3 runs of NAM... CONSISTENT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 NAM continues showing 1-1.75" of ice for Watuga/Ashe/Avery. If that verifies this will be a storm talked about for years to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 1 minute ago, Tyler Penland said: NAM continues showing 1-1.75" of ice for Watuga/Ashe/Avery. If that verifies this will be a storm talked about for years to come. Yes Sir, Absolutely Devastating!!! I never would have thought severe Ice this time of year, It's usually Rain or Snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 Just now, BIG FROSTY said: Yes Sir, Absolutely Devastating!!! I never would have thought severe Ice this time of year, It's usually Rain or Snow! Scratch the 1-1.75. Has a max of 2.2" right over Boone. Falls on top of 1-2" of snow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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