Snow haven Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 cold rain for me UGH!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 23, 2018 Author Share Posted March 23, 2018 NAM coming in hot for southside, Roanoke area. A little colder at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 4 minutes ago, wncsnow said: NAM coming in hot for southside, Roanoke area. A little colder at the surface Looks much better up this way. Solid 6-10 for me and def a good dumping out your way as well. im just a tad worried, as the Nam seems to be the northern outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 NAM starting to get a little more consistent on locking on to something! Hopefully it verifys, but the GFS and EURO are fairly consistent with their idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 3K NAM has quite the gradient for snow over Forsyth County, ranging from 0"-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 23, 2018 Author Share Posted March 23, 2018 Big totals, don't trust it though. Hi Res Nam looks more reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 This thing looks like a Fancy Gap special. Super sharp cutoff. Tons of bust potential in both directions. Also, GFS still trying to throw me a little onset IP on Monday..#MilkAndBread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 12z NAM taken verbatim, has it snowing 13-15 hrs in Danville... Maybe high on the totals... but remember folks, most of this falls at night, so no sun angle worries! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 Whether right or wrong, the NAM stayed consistent from the 6z Run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 This is gonna have to be a huge surface temp bust over a long period of time for the triad to see anything more than a "slushting". the ride up HWY 8 sunday morning could be the greatest transition I've ever witnessed if Patrick County ends up with 6"+. Break out the popcorn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 Could someone explain to me why there is such a difference in accumulations for the mountains on the pivotal weather and the TT maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 4 minutes ago, NC_WX10 said: Could someone explain to me why there is such a difference in accumulations for the mountains on the pivotal weather and the TT maps? It's a p-type issue. Most of what is falling in the 12Z NAM for NW NC is ZR/IP, which the TT maps count as snow accumulation and the pivotal weather maps mostly don't. Kuchera maps don't count ZR/IP as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 Yeah 3km NAM is a disaster for the mountains. Really surprised Blacksburg is going with snow still. Sent from my SM-G930R7 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 23, 2018 Author Share Posted March 23, 2018 The RGEM ( a good short range model) shows nothing outside of the mtns, and not a whole lot there either. It is also further south with heaviest precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: The RGEM ( a good short range model) shows nothing outside of the mtns, and not a whole lot there either. It is also further south with heaviest precip The RGEM is an outlier at this point... it doesnt match up with what the EURO , GFS ,or NAM are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 Not sure how accurate this model is, but it shows a decent amount and still snowing after this frame... only goes out 48 hrs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Not sure how accurate this model is, but it shows a decent amount and still snowing after this frame... only goes out 48 hrs.. That's the higher res version of the RGEM, basically like the 3km nam is compared with the 12km version. It's pretty good and better than the RGEM from what I've seen this year. At this range I would recommend people not look at the 10:1 ratio maps and use Kuchera then cut the totals in half to get a realistic expectation. Ratios will be low due to this being a wet snow, add in compaction, temps right at or above freezing and you don't have a recipe to get anything close to what the 10:1 maps are putting out. Ratios will be more like 3:1 to 6:1 for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 23, 2018 Author Share Posted March 23, 2018 GFS is gonna be a big hit for NWNC mountains again but is not good for southside VA or northern NC Piedmont Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 4 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: That's the higher res version of the RGEM, basically like the 3km nam is compared with the 12km version. It's pretty good and better than the RGEM from what I've seen this year. At this range I would recommend people not look at the 10:1 ratio maps and use Kuchera then cut the totals in half to get a realistic expectation. Ratios will be low due to this being a wet snow, add in compaction, temps right at or above freezing and you don't have a recipe to get anything close to what the 10:1 maps are putting out. Ratios will be more like 3:1 to 6:1 for most. I wouldnt go as low as 3:1... thinking the ratios will be between 5:1-7:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 4 minutes ago, wncsnow said: GFS is gonna be a big hit for NWNC mountains again but is not good for southside VA or northern NC Piedmont https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=seus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018032312&fh=54 I’m not so sure about that. Looks really good back this way in McDowell even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 23, 2018 Author Share Posted March 23, 2018 GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 Yeah Pivitol and Tropical Tidbits snow maps are wayyy different lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 23, 2018 Author Share Posted March 23, 2018 Kuchera ratio is much much better to use in these scenarios. As said earlier it wont be anything close to 10-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 Don't forget the gfs/euro won't handle the warm nose nearly as well as the NAM. When the 3km NAM has a warm nose it's rarely overdoing it. Sent from my SM-G930R7 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 ICON was much better this go around... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 4 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Kuchera ratio is much much better to use in these scenarios. As said earlier it wont be anything close to 10-1 This is going to be so close here in McDowell. Could be where Woodlawn and the Cove sees snow and south of 40 not much. Going to be that close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 SREF Plume has a Mean of about 3.30" in Danville. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 Even with the Kuchera the diff between the GFS and NAM are absurd. One shows 6” in Boone and the other 0.1” I know NAM shows a lot of IP/ZR but with the amount of precip coming this way I’d think there would be more concern from NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 Even with the Kuchera the diff between the GFS and NAM are absurd. One shows 6” in Boone and the other 0.1” I know NAM shows a lot of IP/ZR but with the amount of precip coming this way I’d think there would be more concern from NWS .I’m losing what hope I had last night for the foothills. Probably some slush and a lot of rain cold!! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HPman123 Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 First time posting. I "stumbled on" to this site back in December. The people I work with think that I'm the "weather god". I've predicted every snow storm this year (usually several days or even weeks in advance). However, I never told them where I got my information. You guys are awesome, thanks for everything you do!! I'm a high school teacher, so snow is a BIG deal!!! I'm on the hook for Monday, I predicted NO SCHOOL on Monday. Everyone is doubting, and honestly, I'm starting to doubt my forecast too. My fingers are crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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