BornAgain13 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Going by that map, Danville is on the edge of 4", but not far from big time totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 5 minutes ago, wncsnow said: EURO looks similar but maybe a little more south with mixing into NC down to Winston-Salem, GSO Yeah, it was a touch south and colder (for the NW areas) Here's what SV shows for 10:1 snowfall on its last 2 runs (most recent run is first map)...looks big for the northern mtns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 22, 2018 Author Share Posted March 22, 2018 Seems like there will be the typical overrunning "finger" of heavy precip and someone will get a nice total. Most likely from Boone to Roanoke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 4 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Actually quite a bit further south and better accumulations for triad areas. Wow look at that tight gradient over McDowell, wncsnow. Good I thing I live in the northern end lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Reaching into Cary now---albeit barely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 The Euro is much colder with the 850 temps further south into NC. For instance, Hickory is below 0 at 850mb for the duration of the event. The problem is the boundary layer of temperatures. The Euro never has Hickory going below freezing at the ground level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 22, 2018 Author Share Posted March 22, 2018 2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Wow look at that tight gradient over McDowell, wncsnow. Good I thing I live in the northern end lol. Looks to be some down-sloping with that trajectory of moisture and obviously elevation will play a big role Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Just now, wncsnow said: Looks to be some down-sloping with that trajectory of moisture and obviously elevation will play a big role Each model run looks better and better for McDowell. Gonna be a surprise for some folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Looking very likely that Southwest VA gets hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Best run of the Euro yet! Has me in the 4 to 6 range! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 The entire piedmont of NC has the same boundary level problem as does Hickory. It may snow for quite a while, but it's going to have a problem accumulating with any staying power, unless we can get the CAD to work in just a little stronger and get those temps just a little lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 22, 2018 Author Share Posted March 22, 2018 4 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Each model run looks better and better for McDowell. Gonna be a surprise for some folks. It can stop trending south now for my location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: Best run of the Euro yet! Has me in the 4 to 6 range! It's going to be 4-6 inches of sloppy paste, then. The Euro never gets any area around Raleigh below freezing during any portion of the event. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to watch 4-6 inches of snow fall from the sky, even if it never really accumulates - just the novelty of snow is worth it - but I would seriously temper your expectations unless you are close to the mountains or north of the state line into Virginia. And for everyone who's ready to point it out: yes, I know snow can accumulate with ground temps above zero, if the rates are hard enough. It's just never good to bank on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 22, 2018 Author Share Posted March 22, 2018 3 minutes ago, calculus1 said: It's going to be 4-6 inches of sloppy paste, then. The Euro never gets any area around Raleigh below freezing during any portion of the event. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to watch 4-6 inches of snow fall from the sky, even if it never really accumulates - just the novelty of snow is worth it - but I would seriously temper your expectations unless you are close to the mountains or north of the state line into Virginia. And for everyone who's ready to point it out: yes, I know snow can accumulate with ground temps above zero, if the rates are hard enough. It's just never good to bank on that. It hovers around 33-35 here in Danville so it may have trouble sticking unless the rates can overcome it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 The GEFS did not look good at all... hope thats not a trend. Keeps thr snow in southwest va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 On the Euro, most of the snow comes Saturday night for the NC Piedmont. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Really want this thing to come Saturday night. I have a golf tournament Saturday morning and I hate playing in 40 degree RAIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 I think this has overperformer written all over it. If it comes in later or even if the rates are good enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Well RAH and GSP certainly don't sound too enthused in their AFDs for us in the Triad anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCentralWake Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Anyone got euro snow map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Yeah. NWS Raleigh is like pssst. Whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 22, 2018 Author Share Posted March 22, 2018 Robert has a good write-up on Facebook, good to see him posting about the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 1 hour ago, calculus1 said: It's going to be 4-6 inches of sloppy paste, then. The Euro never gets any area around Raleigh below freezing during any portion of the event. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to watch 4-6 inches of snow fall from the sky, even if it never really accumulates - just the novelty of snow is worth it - but I would seriously temper your expectations unless you are close to the mountains or north of the state line into Virginia. And for everyone who's ready to point it out: yes, I know snow can accumulate with ground temps above zero, if the rates are hard enough. It's just never good to bank on that. Euro snow maps are based on 10:1 ratios and we won't be seeing anything near that for this event. Assuming surface temps hover in the 33-35 degree range, the melting/compaction and wet snow will yield very low ratios on the order of 3:1 or so. The 4-6" the Euro is showing would more realistically be a sloppy 1-3" for the areas that see the heaviest bands. It will be similar to what we saw a few weeks ago with the event where it snowed all day but most areas saw 1-2" max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 17 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: Euro snow maps are based on 10:1 ratios and we won't be seeing anything near that for this event. Assuming surface temps hover in the 33-35 degree range, the melting/compaction and wet snow will yield very low ratios on the order of 3:1 or so. The 4-6" the Euro is showing would more realistically be a sloppy 1-3" for the areas that see the heaviest bands. It will be similar to what we saw a few weeks ago with the event where it snowed all day but most areas saw 1-2" max. And that for the end of March is awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 22, 2018 Author Share Posted March 22, 2018 NAM is coming in north with the precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: NAM is coming in north with the precip Can we talk about that there is a 1040 HP to the north? I mean its not overly strong and it's not in the perfect place, but I would expect it to have more of an impact. RGEM at the end of it's 12z run has a 1044 HP. Thats enough to make a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 22, 2018 Author Share Posted March 22, 2018 New NAM snowmap, as you can see it is 50-100 miles north of other guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 RAH is going with rain rain/snow for areas south of 85. Best dynamics occur sunday morning but moisture and lift in the dendritic growth zone is limited. This is from their discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StoneColdWeatherAustin Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 This storm is going to have amazing bust potential on both sides of the spectrum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 I don't think I have ever seen the Euro and NAM this far apart with 2 days till game time? 12z Euro has nearly a foot here and 18z NAM NOTHING? What in the world is going on here?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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