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March 24/25 Overrunning Disturbance


wncsnow

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2 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

It stops, it melts.  Down to 34 so I'm curious whether we can squeak down to freezing once the sun dips down.  Radar looks juicy for dinner time and into the evening.  Could get interesting!

Yeah, that’s the issue with above freezing temps and sun angle.  You need good continuous rates for accumulations or it just melts during the portions with lighter snow.  Agreed on the radar.  We’ll see what happens.

Light rain/snow mix here.

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30 minutes ago, WeatherHawk said:

Precip has paused here for the past 20 minutes or so...anyone in the western central mtns on here...just curious what's going on around Asheville/Mars Hill areas

Had a little light rain early in the morning with some sun peaking through this afternoon; so not much.

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Snowing heavily, large flake size. Finally starting to stick to grassy surfaces. Has taken forever. I’m hoping to get some good bursts into early evening so we can cash in.

Radar beginning to get convective looking in nature over eastern KY. Will be interesting to see what transpires later on for areas.

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14 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

I'm in Winston at the moment waiting on girls to finish shopping. Getting a pretty good thump of sleet. Then it's off to the in laws up Frostys way. 5 racks of ribs waiting 

Nice.  Smoked a couple of racks yesterday.  Got a roast slow-cooking right now.  Had a nice bout of a mixed bag but dry for a while now.  currently 38.1 and falling.

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5 minutes ago, superjames1992 said:

Here’s his call map, FYI (released a few minutes ago):

https://mobile.twitter.com/webberweather/status/977633054121488386

I don’t know if I see 1-3” here, but I hope he’s right.

And he said the HRRR is too warm, too.

The HRRR is not even close on temps right now in most areas from the Triangle and points NW. Temps are already in the mid 30s over the Triad and it had 40-42. This is just another reminder that NWP can't handle gentle isentropic upglide over a low-mid level cold dome.

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It certainly seems that we've seen more snow than what NWS anticipated here in Colfax (right next to GSO).  Seeing the heavy precip and convection upstream makes me think they could bust heavily on the low side (currently have an advisory with less than 1/2").  With the sun down and temps 32-34 and heavy rates, a quick accumulation certainly seems possible if not likely.

TW

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1 minute ago, tarheelwx said:

It certainly seems that we've seen more snow than what NWS anticipated here in Colfax (right next to GSO).  Seeing the heavy precip and convection upstream makes me think they could bust heavily on the low side (currently have an advisory with less than 1/2").  With the sun down and temps 32-34 and heavy rates, a quick accumulation certainly seems possible if not likely.

TW

The good news for them is that this will be a low impact event no matter how much snow we get, given surface and road temps.  Probably best to be conservative, given the low impacts.

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