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March 24/25 Overrunning Disturbance


wncsnow

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2 minutes ago, designatedkyle said:

This would be wild. But I am a little bit concerned about p-type. We've had a lot of snow pellets and sleet mixing in already. Anything's better than freezing rain, though.

10-4 that image includes a p-types in its totals...would be nice, but agreed that we won't see that much...and yes Lord let's keep the power on please.  IP/ZR on top of the snow on the trees would be a big mess.  

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21 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

These reports of sleet all the way down to Charlotte, and then I see this from the 12z NAM for GSO.

Capture.JPG.c163117998c20a62135fb84a35723c60.JPG

Jtgus,

This shows rain (see 4th from the last column) at 2pm (18z) with a temp at the Greensboro airport of 37 degrees (3rd column from left).   3 hours later at 21z or 5pm it shows moderate snow (light  snow is -sn and heavy snow is +sn).  You can see that for 4 consecutive reporting times, GSO is showing moderate snow.  If you total the liquid qpf for those  four 3 hours periods, you get 1.24".  Then looks all the way to the next to the last column on the right and you see how much snow falls - total being 7.3".  Factor in a these numbers and you get roughly a 6:1 snow to liguid ratio. 

With most other models showing a bit warming outcome with less snow, I'd normally discount this altogether.  However, with sleet reports coming from the N Charlotte area, it makes me pause and wonder if this is possible.  While I don't think it is likely, I certainly think it is entirely possible.  Will be fun to see how it plays out. 

Hope this helps.

TW

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The occurrence of sleet, such as around Charlotte, was expected and doesn’t really mean anything one way or another as far as the eventual outcome tonight. The sleet pellets are largely due to evaporation aloft. 

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GSP never afraid to throw a good one-liner into the discussion...

The previous shift added some very
healthy ice accums to the forecast tonight across mainly Avery
County, and qpf is actually being increased for this update. We
have left this largely intact, but there will be plenty of
competing factors that make the surface temp forecast highly
problematic. (Factors that would argue for keeping the cold air
locked in: persistent /slightly increasing upslope flow and in-situ cold air
damming. Factors that would tend to dislodge the cold air: absence
of light precip this afternoon, latent heat release due to freezing
once the heavier rainfall rates develop this evening. With such
uncertainty, we are not prepared to touch the Warnings/Advisories
with a ten-foot-pole at this time.
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