wncsnow Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Models coming into agreement that Roanoke-Southside VA/Northern NC may be in the cross-hairs for heaviest precip with rain changing to snow. Timing is different on models, some have it starting as early as midday Saturday while others hold off until evening hours. Latest model runs snow maps- GFS NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 22, 2018 Author Share Posted March 22, 2018 Some major questions remain including- 1. Track of the low 2. Depth cold air and strength of CAD high pressure 3. Axis of heaviest overrunning precip Models have temperatures rising into the mid 40's for VA/NC piedmont regions with dewpoints in the mid to upper 20s. It will be a close call and a lot of the snow may not accumulate well due to boundary layer issues and the high late March sun angle. However, if precip is as heavy as models advertise is could be a quick thump, especially if it occurs overnight Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Track of low does not look that good for me. VA border a different story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 11 minutes ago, CentralNC said: Track of low does not look that good for me. VA border a different story As of right now, Just north of Greensboro to Danville VA could be the big winners (..off the mountain). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 I would look for a southward adjustment as we get closer. In this setup the CAD and HP will likely force the LP a bit further south than currently modeled. Also looking at some ensembles there are quite a few members with a more suppressed track, similar to the 06z German and 00z UK runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 36 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: I would look for a southward adjustment as we get closer. In this setup the CAD and HP will likely force the LP a bit further south than currently modeled. Also looking at some ensembles there are quite a few members with a more suppressed track, similar to the 06z German and 00z UK runs. Looks like the 12z NAM heard you. Colder over 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 22, 2018 Author Share Posted March 22, 2018 New NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 I might get some mixed love, but doubtful of accumulations. Believe that surface temps are going to be too warm to support accumulating snow and will be mostly rain here. Now 50 miles NW of me towards Roanoke Rapids, Emporia and over to South Boston might cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 The 12Z ICON shows the snow swath much further south and west than does the 12Z NAM. It is, not surprisingly, colder at the surface in the traditional CAD regions. I'm not too thrilled with the trajectory of this impulse, for my location. It seems the northern Triad probably has the best chance to see some frozen surprises out of this system, in North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 12Z ICON at 75 hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Wow what a tight gradient on 12z GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Another model run, another shift south. GFS south with its 12Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 22, 2018 Author Share Posted March 22, 2018 The GFS is warmer and shows snow mostly in favored mountain areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Rooting for the ICON in the northern mtns, the NAM is a complete whiff here. Guess there is still time to trend south but isn’t looking too good. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Just now, AirNelson39 said: Rooting for the ICON in the northern mtns, the NAM is a complete whiff here. Guess there is still time to trend south but isn’t looking too good. . Each model run is ttending south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 GFS has monster totals in parts of SW VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Not looking good for Wake County! Too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Woah @ GFS... BTW is this really a clipper? Doesn't the s/w come in from the Baja region and the surface low spring up in CO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Could someone share the 12Z GFS?? Thanks!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Looks okay to me. I might be far enough north to get a couple of inches out of this one. Any snow this time of year is icing on the cake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 7 minutes ago, AirNelson39 said: Could someone share the 12Z GFS?? Thanks! . https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=seus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018032212&fh=126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 55 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Woah @ GFS... BTW is this really a clipper? Doesn't the s/w come in from the Baja region and the surface low spring up in CO? wncsnow saves it by having the word "overrunning" before "clipper" but yeah, the wave for the system originates in California, then works thru the central U.S. ridge in split flow, before diving southeast. It really weakens as it dives southeast, but there is enough moisture and lift for precip on Saturday before it weakens into Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=seus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018032212&fh=126Thanks Buddy, I bookmarked that site. I’m hoping for a few more slight shifts south and we will likely get the best storm of the season here in Boone...only need 6” to do it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 4 minutes ago, AirNelson39 said: Thanks Buddy, I bookmarked that site. I’m hoping for a few more slight shifts south and we will likely get the best storm of the season here in Boone...only need 6” to do it lol . No problem man! Hoping we can all cash in on what should be the last storm of winter possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 36 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Looks okay to me. I might be far enough north to get a couple of inches out of this one. Any snow this time of year is icing on the cake. Doesn't always work out this way but you guys in the eastern part of the state have had more than than those of us in western part. I think all together we have had around 12 - 13 in. in Surry County. I glad for you in the east as normally its the other way around. Hope everyone who wants snow gets dumped on big time across the state. For those who are ready for spring it's just about here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 GFS says I get 6" of slush (meaning nothing) in the Triad and then I can drive an hour north to my farm in Stuart, VA and see a foot of snow? I'm gonna enjoy watching this verify, or not. This looks to be a daylight event on Saturday. What do we need here to slow this down to Sat evening? Better chance for CAD to filter into NC and give the RDU folks some love too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 I thought the models were bringing most of it overnight Saturday into Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Looking at the GFS, by hour 60 most of the damage is done in the triad. I would like to see this truly be an overnight event and wake up to a nice surprise sunday am, otherwise.....puddles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 22, 2018 Author Share Posted March 22, 2018 EURO looks similar but maybe a little more south with mixing into NC down to Winston-Salem, GSO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 22, 2018 Author Share Posted March 22, 2018 Actually quite a bit further south and better accumulations for triad areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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