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Spring/Summer 2018 Banter and Complaint Office


IWXwx

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With all this talk about making a Winter thread are not making one yet, I do agree that on weather boards, Winter always looks great in August. But I must say in some other sources it's the opposite. They always say, well this Winter will be mild......if this and this and this and this go right. I've already seen a few stories on the likely coming El nino and the headline is meant to grab the attention of the public and imply Winter will be mild and dry. Then you read the actual article and they say if this and this and this go right lol. Same stuff every year.

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I haven't looked through the forum, so sorry if there's a thread somewhere, but there is an interesting article in last weeks Time magazine about the new American model, the FV³ (Finite Volume on a Cubed-Sphere) that is set to be operational by early next year. This is the first that I've read about it.

http://time.com/longform/better-storm-prediction/

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  • 2 weeks later...
This spring/summer have been pretty brutal as far as getting good action in my area. Haven't seen anything remotely close to a severe thunderstorm.  I'd even settle for one of the super rain storms that have occurred in other areas.

You , like me, have probably been resigned to watching the sky light up to our north


.
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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

This spring/summer have been pretty brutal as far as getting good action in my area. Haven't seen anything remotely close to a severe thunderstorm.  I'd even settle for one of the super rain storms that have occurred in other areas.

Preaching to the choir here. This area has been danced around so much it is almost second nature.

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  • 2 weeks later...

last few weeks has been living hell workwise with the swamplike humidity in the low lying semi-flooded area where our current project is taking place. would summarize as “sweat-salt crusted suffering.” had to reread Under The Red Sea Sun by edward ellsberg to regain perspective. today was not just nice but paradise in comparison

 

headed up to near jonger’s neck of the mitten in a couple of ten days to catch some early fall in dune & grapevine country. looking forward to it, hope our current pattern holds

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On 9/1/2018 at 8:33 PM, michsnowfreak said:

I dont mind mild weather in oct but thats way too warm. Of course it will change 29 times.

CFS is still warmer than average for October, but it backed off on the magnitude.  Of course it's still kind of useless at this point.

Took until early December last year for my maple trees to lose all their leaves. At this rate I wonder if we will get close to that again.

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31 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

CFS is still warmer than average for October, but it backed off on the magnitude.  Of course it's still kind of useless at this point.

Took until early December last year for my maple trees to lose all their leaves. At this rate I wonder if we will get close to that again.

 CFS seems to be suffering from a bias and is making a stronger nino then is actually forecast by any other model off. Its also the warmest of sny longrange model going into winter. Last year the late September heat spell is what delayed some of the trees I would guess. It was a late peak in early November, but I do not remember any leaves at the beginning of December, even on the latest trees. This year, the trees bloomed late in the Spring, but we've been dry here, so those 2 factors kind of cancel each other out. Larry cosgrove, who called for a hot September, is calling for much colder weather in October. So we will wait and see but every guess I've heard so far is that peak will be right around average (mid to late Oct). Some of the usual spotty early color is popping up.

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42 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 CFS seems to be suffering from a bias and is making a stronger nino then is actually forecast by any other model off. Its also the warmest of sny longrange model going into winter. Last year the late September heat spell is what delayed some of the trees I would guess. It was a late peak in early November, but I do not remember any leaves at the beginning of December, even on the latest trees. This year, the trees bloomed late in the Spring, but we've been dry here, so those 2 factors kind of cancel each other out. Larry cosgrove, who called for a hot September, is calling for much colder weather in October. So we will wait and see but every guess I've heard so far is that peak will be right around average (mid to late Oct). Some of the usual spotty early color is popping up.

I thought I remembered posting a pic in December, so I went back and checked. Sure enough, this is from December 2 last year.

20171202_165508.thumb.jpg.9ecfd9f6e005013995e606365f014cf9.jpg

I'm not doubting you though... I could see southeast MI running a little ahead of my area.  

I was mainly being facetious.  It would take multiple things to happen to make it as late as last year.  Even having too many windy days can screw it up.  

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