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Spring/Summer 2018 Banter and Complaint Office

IWXwx

By IWXwx,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, IWXwx said:

You know that it's a boring severe year when you are hoping to see a cold air funnel/landspout.

Kind of have a feeling that we get a good fall outbreak this year.  I'm not sure if that may be because I'm thinking the rubber band has to snap sometime.  :lol:

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King James

King James

Posted
Posted
Kind of have a feeling that we get a good fall outbreak this year.  I'm not sure if that may be because I'm thinking the rubber band has to snap sometime.  :lol:

I made a move with the view of the sky playing a big part of the decision. I need a lightning storm to at least feel like I made a good move

But to your point, I’m very excited for fall out where I am. It’s very wide open and I need a strong system to see what I got in terms of a legit weather spot


.
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Powerball

Powerball

Posted
Posted
On 7/19/2018 at 9:23 AM, IWXwx said:

You know that it's a boring severe year when you are hoping to see a cold air funnel/landspout.

Looks like we've been stealing you guys' severe weather / ring of fire storms. :devilsmiley:

We've had more storm reports in GA than even OK this year, and we're pretty much neck & neck with NE / MO.

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WestMichigan

WestMichigan

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

MKX broke its several hundred day tornado watch-less streak on July 1st...and there were 0 tornadoes confirmed in the area on that day. Several weak ones occurred earlier in the year on days with no watch in effect.

GRR pulled the trigger recently also.  Makes the DTW streak look even more impressive now because it stands out even more.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

More like SPC pulled the trigger on them...but it was a blank.

I mean it had severe but the tor watch didn't verify. Wasn't enough clearing between prefrontal stuff and the stuff near the low, otherwise that would have been a different outcome.

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hlcater

hlcater

Posted
Posted
22 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

July 2018 will end as the warmest July on record in Key West FL, with a mean temp of 86.9F.  Even so, it's only a +2.3F departure from the 1981-2010 normal. :lmao:

On July 26th, the max/min was 93/86...yuck.

The only hotter month was August 2007, with a mean temp of 87.5F. 

Doesn't take much to get in record departure territory in a barotropic environment. 

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beavis1729

beavis1729

Posted
Posted

I've been thinking how rare it has been over the last few "summers" (which I define as June 10th - Sep 10th at ORD due to the colder lake temps in early June) to have comfortable mornings...or even "normal" mornings.    

So far in 2018, about 70% of days in this time period have had above-normal low temps at ORD...and it's probably similar for 2016 and 2017.

Some of this is UHI...but warmer mornings during this 3-month "summer" period seem to be occurring over all of the Chicago metro, not just ORD.

In July, the normal low is around 65...so you'd generally expect the same # of days with lows of 70+ vs. lows in the 50s.

But here are the numbers...

July 2016:  10 days with lows of 70+, 4 days with lows in the 50s

July 2017:  7 days with lows of 70+, 1 day with lows in the 50s

July 2018:  10 days with lows of 70+, 1 day with lows in the 50s

July 2016-2018 Total:  27 days with lows of 70+, 6 days with lows in the 50s

I hope this isn't a "new normal".  In summers past, I remember many instances when a cool Canadian high would come down, with dry dewpoints and highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s...even during the peak of summer.  It seems like we rarely get these days anymore.  Is it because the arctic/Canada is generally warming...and therefore the source region for these air masses is warmer?  Or, is it simply UHI in all of Chicago metro, not just ORD?  

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

I've been thinking how rare it has been over the last few "summers" (which I define as June 10th - Sep 10th at ORD due to the colder lake temps in early June) to have comfortable mornings...or even "normal" mornings.    

So far in 2018, about 70% of days in this time period have had above-normal low temps at ORD...and it's probably similar for 2016 and 2017.

Some of this is UHI...but warmer mornings during this 3-month "summer" period seem to be occurring over all of the Chicago metro, not just ORD.

In July, the normal low is around 65...so you'd generally expect the same # of days with lows of 70+ vs. lows in the 50s.

But here are the numbers...

July 2016:  10 days with lows of 70+, 4 days with lows in the 50s

July 2017:  7 days with lows of 70+, 1 day with lows in the 50s

July 2018:  10 days with lows of 70+, 1 day with lows in the 50s

July 2016-2018 Total:  27 days with lows of 70+, 6 days with lows in the 50s

I hope this isn't a "new normal".  In summers past, I remember many instances when a cool Canadian high would come down, with dry dewpoints and highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s...even during the peak of summer.  It seems like we rarely get these days anymore.  Is it because the arctic/Canada is generally warming...and therefore the source region for these air masses is warmer?  Or, is it simply UHI in all of Chicago metro, not just ORD?  

Probably a combination of things.  I'd also add that the Frankenstein corn these days (as cyclone called it) could be a factor especially outside of the urban core... more evapotranspiration makes it harder to lose that warmth overnight.

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beavis1729

beavis1729

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Probably a combination of things.  I'd also add that the Frankenstein corn these days (as cyclone called it) could be a factor especially outside of the urban core... more evapotranspiration makes it harder to lose that warmth overnight.

Good point about the corn...and even in Chicago metro, the prevailing W or SW winds may advect some of the higher-Td air from the cornfields into the area.

There is something unsettling about humans altering their environment so much, that it impacts local & regional climo so significantly...

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luckyweather

luckyweather

Posted
Posted

There is something unsettling about humans altering their environment so much, that it impacts local & regional climo so significantly...

 

Semi related, the topic of drought often comes up here. Short term seasonal droughts in the upper Midwest and upper plains are actually very normal. After the end of the last glaciation and after the temporary boreal forest gave way to oak hickory forest, it wasn’t very long before northern Illinois, parts of Iowa and southern Wisconsin lost nearly all trees (except along waterways) and gave way to the prairies. Geology shows there was plenty of rainfall to support sustained forest, so the theory is that seasonal spring and fall droughts resulted in nearly annual burnings. In order for prairie to dominate for so long, those seasonal droughts had to be pretty regular.

 

Large scale seasonal weather patterns seem to be rapidly evolving, so maybe this is a non point - but assuming the large scale patterns are generally the same as they have been for the last several thousand years, our modification of the surface in this region is preventing the annual burnings, allowing forest development, and so now we see the landscape we have today, but it isn’t natural or normal.

 

Sustained multi year extreme droughts aren’t the norm, but temporary seasonal droughts are, and so when the topic of drought comes up here I actually am encouraged, as that has been the cyclical seasonal norm here for a very long time.

 

A few additional tangents - 1) the large corn ground cover isn’t all that abnormal, yes corn is Frankensteined for maximum hardiness and rapid growth, but is still just another grass, which is the natural ground cover here; 2) large buffalo/bison herds here also contributed to the sustained prairie landscape.

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted

So I know we don't have an official winter of '18-'19 thread started yet, probably because we tend to be one of the more grounded subs on this site...lol.

But glancing around I see the NE folks are starting to drool with talks of how great things are starting to look for them....and yet it's the beginning of August and 4 months out from met winter beginning.     Only thing I'm sure of is that political outcomes and winter forecasts have about the same verification chances when the predictions are made months in advance.   

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hlcater

hlcater

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, buckeye said:

So I know we don't have an official winter of '18-'19 thread started yet, probably because we tend to be one of the more grounded subs on this site...lol.

But glancing around I see the NE folks are starting to drool with talks of how great things are starting to look for them....and yet it's the beginning of August and 4 months out from met winter beginning.     Only thing I'm sure of is that political outcomes and winter forecasts have about the same verification chances when the predictions are made months in advance.   

Also keeping in mind no one ever predicts a slow, awful winter. It's always gonna be the coldest, snowiest, record shattering gung ho winter of all time in the preceding August. I just keep my sanity and dont really pay attention until November at the earliest

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted
On 8/7/2018 at 1:33 PM, beavis1729 said:

Good point about the corn...and even in Chicago metro, the prevailing W or SW winds may advect some of the higher-Td air from the cornfields into the area.

There is something unsettling about humans altering their environment so much, that it impacts local & regional climo so significantly...

Urban heat island is definitely a huge factor. Is it the only factor? Absolutely not but it certainly is a big factor. I've done this with numerous climate sites in Southeast Michigan and I guarantee you would see the same if you did it for sites in Illinois. Pick a climate site that has not changed location and was relatively rural 40 or 50 years ago and is still relatively rural and unaffected by UHI. Then take a site where UHI has drastically increased over the past several decades and you will notice that the difference in temperature is affected by the UHI. That said there's of course cycles and trends as well. We had hoodie wearing cool snaps in July 2009, 2013, 2014. So there are ebbs and flows too.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted
On 8/12/2018 at 5:41 PM, buckeye said:

So I know we don't have an official winter of '18-'19 thread started yet, probably because we tend to be one of the more grounded subs on this site...lol.

But glancing around I see the NE folks are starting to drool with talks of how great things are starting to look for them....and yet it's the beginning of August and 4 months out from met winter beginning.     Only thing I'm sure of is that political outcomes and winter forecasts have about the same verification chances when the predictions are made months in advance.   

Im surprised we do not have a thread yet. We certainly do not need to turn into the New England forum but it wouldn't hurt to have a discussion thread. Way too early to make any assumptions but the 1st snowflakes can easily be flying in the northern part of this sub in 2 months.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

We usually start our winter thread in Mid/late November in Upstate. Has to be the latest on the forum. 

Honestly I wouldn't mind waiting until October but I know that some places in the northern Lakes get snow that early

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luckyweather

luckyweather

Posted
Posted
Im surprised we do not have a thread yet. We certainly do not need to turn into the New England forum but it wouldn't hurt to have a discussion thread. Way too early to make any assumptions but the 1st snowflakes can easily be flying in the northern part of this sub in 2 months.


I think it’s mostly just banter at this point, patterns and trends building toward patterns start coming in range for the first part of winter in October. Prior to that you’re just either talking about enso status or pure speculation. I don’t think it hurts to have a little of that here in the banter thread while we wait for things to come in range to the point where we can start having more serious fact and data based discussions.

I wouldn’t mind a pre-winter conjecture thread but I get that then we’re getting in the territory of the New England winter weirdness.
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