Snow bomb obs March 21

[henry1978]

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I can’t believe I nearly had a conference call with the governor of NH today for this. 

who's the most impressive governor you've dealt with over the years? 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Looks like I could do well overnight tonight

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Crazy this was the NWS forecast at 12z yesterday.

GYX FTW! (Still probably going to be too high)

And CAR went the other way and bumped totals up.

[HullMA]

Long island is getting absolutely rocked. Looks like sleet on the radar ( i think its all snow)

[kdxken]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Yup. Pretty brutal evolution. So close to the goods as LI gets 1-2" per hour rates and we struggle to get much of anything. 

I know you're probably not in the mood but how bad have folks been ripping the forecast?

[Typhoon Tip]

I think it's fascinating actually…like a complete whiff bust. Old school style.  Not supposed to happen these days -huh  

Wonder when we get the opposite bust of equal magnitude - does seem rarer.

This time really a lot of available guidance were wishy-washy and/or non-commit all all long. I'm wondering if all that was a red flag,  if perhaps ignored by unwanting eyes.  And people were claiming that the euro was full of crap and it was a disaster overnight last night well how much of a bust is it if one of the models warned us at least 24 hours in advance?

 So… It's a KU event that we're not gonna be involved in. Sometimes you get the bear sometimes the bear gets you. And perhaps it's fitting in away because we got New England specials at least three times over the last month or maybe two… And in mid Atlantic, they kept getting whiffed by those. 

I don't know maybe some will pick it up overnight will see

[Hoth]

2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Yup. Pretty brutal evolution. So close to the goods as LI gets 1-2" per hour rates and we struggle to get much of anything. 

New NWS discussion suggests the heavier stuff over NYC builds up this way the next few hours. Believe it?

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

New NWS discussion suggests the heavier stuff over NYC builds up this way the next few hours. Believe it?

No. We've got great echoes overhead but can't dip below 1SM. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Crazy this was the NWS forecast at 12z yesterday.

Some places forecast to see nearly a foot won’t even see a flake... frustrating storm.

Weve been on a roll for years now... we’re due for some clunker winters and systems that screw us

[DavisStraight]

2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

New NWS discussion suggests the heavier stuff over NYC builds up this way the next few hours. Believe it?

Looking at radar you have to think we get clipped a little.

[Hoth]

Just now, CT Rain said:

No. We've got great echoes overhead but can't dip below 1SM. 

Yeah, dry air is just intractable.

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah nobody on the coast is getting anything until temps cool. BOS will be lucky for much of anything at this rate.

This was the best post of the entire storm...

On 3/20/2018 at 8:58 AM, CoastalWx said:

Ask BTV how it worked out tossing the euro. Bad idea.

The King is back it seems.  If the EURO doesn't jump fully on board for multiple run cycles... look out.  There was really only one EURO run that went wild.  The rest were proceed with caution.

12z ECM was nail in coffin for many.  When it has Long Island in good banding with 1.0-1.5" QPF but only 0.3" at IJD... time to take notice.

[CoastalWx]

ISP 1/8SM. Wish we lived there.

[Baroclinic Zone]

I see BOX has dropped ALL WSW warnings

[henry1978]

BOX is having a hard time letting go, although they downgraded the winter storm warnings and are now forecasting 2-5 for areas they foolishly had 5-9 earlier this evening.

[OceanStWx]

5 minutes ago, henry1978 said:

who's the most impressive governor you've dealt with over the years? 

I haven’t gotten to host that many high level conference calls, so I can only say it’s just Maggie Hassan during the NH 301 in 2015. If LePage or Sununu has been lurking on a conference call during winter, I didn’t know about it.

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

ISP 1/8SM. Wish we lived there.

Yup. 25dbz over HVN and 2.5SM lol

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Box is finally punting this event it seems. Winter storm warnings dropped for everyone.

 

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Some places forecast to see nearly a foot won’t even see a flake... frustrating storm.

Weve been on a roll for years now... we’re due for some clunker winters and systems that screw us

This certainly won't be a clunker Winter though, that's for sure.

 

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I see BOX has dropped ALL WSW warnings

Can’t wait to hear what their day crew has to say tomorrow as we host them in our ops.

Not fun doing that walk of shame.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

9 minutes ago, HullMA said:

Long island is getting absolutely rocked. Looks like sleet on the radar ( i think its all snow)

It’s all snow. 3” hours rates maybe 4” at times 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, powderfreak said:

This certainly won't be a clunker Winter though, that's for sure.

 

Snowfall wise definitely not.  I do wish late Jan and Feb worked out. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

This certainly won't be a clunker Winter though, that's for sure.

 

Right... I’ll be over 70” here if I can muscle out an inch from this storm. If you consider other factors outside snowfall, you can debate how good it actually was though

It may not be next year, or the year after, but it’s coming at some point for the entire SNE region.

[kdxken]

4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I see BOX has dropped ALL WSW warnings

You and Bryan always want it not to snow

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah the other completely veracious way to look at this is to ask the question, what really is a bust

I mean a lot of people are pissed right now they're not gonna look at it objectively they're going to call it bust.  I get that it's emotional but after that passes and we look back at this ... I can't help but recall models occasionally  saying this would happen and people ignored those runs/toss -I don't know how much of a bust it really is in fairness. Seemed like a lot of collectively shared effort to promote this thing along 

if we want to get into a debate about how good the model should be in this day and age and whether they actually handled the totality of this evolution very well then sure I agree - wasn't the best track record there… But there was still enough there  to not be a total blindside which is what I think a real and true bust.  

[powderfreak]

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I think it's fascinating actually…like a complete whiff bust. Old school style.  Not supposed to happen these days -huh  

Wonder when we get the opposite bust of equal magnitude - does seem rarer.

 

Feels like there have been plenty of those positive busts over the years lately... the funny thing is I think these types of busts have happened plenty of time in NNE and WNE over the past 5 years.  It's just rare for it to be the BOS/ORH/HFD zone.  I mean I can remember plenty of events where various models had 1" or more QPF as snow, even within 24 hours, only to end up with 0.2" or something in reality.  The south or east tracking lows seem to bust a lot more than the north and west tracking lows... almost like models have a bias that if something will go wrong, it's going south and/or east with track off the coast.

Heck January 2015 the EURO had 1.2" of QPF up here 24 hours prior and we ended up with like a quarter inch and 2-3" of sand.  It happens quite a bit on the northern and western edges of storms, this one just happened to put SNE in that zone.

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Snowfall wise definitely not.  I do wish late Jan and Feb worked out. 

Agreed.

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Right... I’ll be over 70” here if I can muscle out an inch from this storm. If you consider other factors outside snowfall, you can debate how good it actually was though

It may not be next year, or the year after, but it’s coming at some point for the entire SNE region.

Holy sh*t!  70" in Taunton?!  That's an insane departure from normal percentage wise.

One might guess from your posting at times that it never snows there or that you were at 30" on the season ... you've gotten the equivalent of 7 different 10" events, that's gotta be a memorable winter for snowstorms.

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Feels like there have been plenty of those positive busts over the years lately... the funny thing is I think these types of busts have happened plenty of time in NNE and WNE over the past 5 years.  It's just rare for it to be the BOS/ORH/HFD zone.  I mean I can remember plenty of events where various models had 1" or more QPF as snow, even within 24 hours, only to end up with 0.2" or something in reality.  The south or east tracking lows seem to bust a lot more than the north and west tracking lows... almost like models have a bias that if something will go wrong, it's going south and/or east with track off the coast.

Heck January 2015 the EURO had 1.2" of QPF up here 24 hours prior and we ended up with like a quarter inch and 2-3" of sand.  It happens quite a bit on the northern and western edges of storms, this one just happened to put SNE in that zone.

We (GYX) just had one in early Feb where places had 9” where as the snow started flying they had no headline.

[MBRI]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2018/md0165.html