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Snow bomb obs March 21


Damage In Tolland

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

That event may have come up on the ops floor between BOX and GYX today.

That was one of my worst busts as a forecaster. I then was "forced" to go against the grain 2 weeks later in the elevation bomb when everyone else was gunshy and still reeling from the bust. 

Ekster at BOX let 'em fly though for that 2/23-24 event. It was funny seeing a winter storm warning for ORH county while the TV mets were painting 1-3". 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The forecast error in position is going to end up over 100 miles on a 12 hour forecast from some of these models. That is fooking embarrassing. 

Yeah some of those 00z to 12z run differences are funny. But I think this was also a setup where if something was even a bit off, the stakes were higher in terms of impact. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That was one of my worst busts as a forecaster. I then was "forced" to go against the grain 2 weeks later in the elevation bomb when everyone else was gunshy and still reeling from the bust. 

Ekster at BOX let 'em fly though for that 2/23-24 event. It was funny seeing a winter storm warning for ORH county while the TV mets were painting 1-3". 

I loved the 2/23 event, except for the flip...but the 2/27 was better

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Man...ORH is gonna get robbed of the monthly record because of this bust. 1993 will somehow escape with the top spot still unless we get some stuff to pop soon. 

I thought they would. You figure ORH magic would happen. Was kind of pulling for them. Maybe 3" tonight and 1.5" from that inv trough Sunday? :lol:

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That was one of my worst busts as a forecaster. I then was "forced" to go against the grain 2 weeks later in the elevation bomb when everyone else was gunshy and still reeling from the bust. 

Ekster at BOX let 'em fly though for that 2/23-24 event. It was funny seeing a winter storm warning for ORH county while the TV mets were painting 1-3". 

That’s key. You don’t want to compound busts by being gun shy later on.

Each event can really be viewed in a vacuum, but some forecasters struggle to divorce themselves from past events.

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Looks like quite of few towns in Metro Boston are deciding to close school for tomorrow.  NYC looks like they are getting good snow but in reality its 1 to 1 1/2 mile stuff.  Watching Time Square Web cam looks quite light   https://www.earthcam.com/cams/newyork/timessquare/?cam=tsrobo1

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

I can’t believe I nearly had a conference call with the governor of NH today for this. :lol:

The box folks had a good one with Deval Patrick in the 2/10/10 storm. Those are the ones you really wish you could have back. :lol: 

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah on the good solutions that stuff was supposed to be 100 miles north into CT and prob RI/SE MA by now. 

Yup. Pretty brutal evolution. So close to the goods as LI gets 1-2" per hour rates and we struggle to get much of anything. 

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Man...ORH is gonna get robbed of the monthly record because of this bust. 1993 will somehow escape with the top spot still unless we get some stuff to pop soon. 

Truthfully I'll take the bust.  Shouldn't be digging firewood out of snow in Metrowest on March 21st. Vermont maybe...

dig.jpg

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