OceanStWx Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 11 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Yeah oof. When the bigger picture synoptics are wrong watch out for some really really wrong HREF/NAM forecasts lol Yeah, it was only like two out of ten members that whiffed. I wonder what the NCAR would have had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 A friend of mine just called me ranting and raving about how bad the forecast was and how an important meeting they had this morning was canceled last evening and complaining how many other friends changed plans yada yada yada because of the winter storm that never was. It got me thinking. When big business gets things wrong they put out a statement explaining what happened. Should the National Weather Service ever put out such a statement or just moves on forgetting the big bust that just happened? I understand how hard weather forecasting is but maybe an explanation to Joe public would be prudent? Thinking about this case, however, there really isn't an easy explanation for the public to understand. It wasn't like there was a server crash that prevented models for running. Just a complex set of circumstances. This post is just food for thought! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: That’s awesome. And what a storm for Long Island. I don’t mind missing out on a 6 inch event, but being so close to 20 inches?. Oof. More than doubled my previous personal high of 7" of snow after March 15th it was epic for March in this region and gut wrenching to track made our winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: That’s awesome. And what a storm for Long Island. I don’t mind missing out on a 6 inch event, but being so close to 20 inches?. Oof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: From a historical perspective, that suck to lose but oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 8 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: A friend of mine just called me ranting and raving about how bad the forecast was and how an important meeting they had this morning was canceled last evening and complaining how many other friends changed plans yada yada yada because of the winter storm that never was. It got me thinking. When big business gets things wrong they put out a statement explaining what happened. Should the National Weather Service ever put out such a statement or just moves on forgetting the big bust that just happened? I understand how hard weather forecasting is but maybe an explanation to Joe public would be prudent? Thinking about this case, however, there really isn't an easy explanation for the public to understand. It wasn't like there was a server crash that prevented models for running. Just a complex set of circumstances. This post is just food for thought! There aren't many good avenues to do that for us unfortunately. I don't hate the idea of explaining why snow didn't happen in a social media post of something like that. That does get a little close to the line of people trying to hold us liable for cancelling an event (like a music recital ), and that's not really how it works. We don't make decisions on when to close, we just provide a set of conditions and let people make the calls for themselves. The only time we tell people to shelter is for SVR/TOR/FFWs, short fused events. Otherwise, we only recommend avoiding travel in a blizzard or winter storm warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: From a historical perspective, that suck to lose but oh well. Can't wrap my head around this. My brain doesn't function like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Can't wrap my head around this. My brain doesn't function like this. As a meteorologist, you appreciate the big and historical events. It's why I make fun of Kevin for saying he is happy with 1-3" events. I live for those. So yeah..happy for LI...but this late in the season...to miss a large event being so close is disappointing to me. However, if I lives on cstl CT...I would swan dive into LI Sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 this month was above avg but nothing special here, truly horrific comparatively speaking in this part of death valley the 93 superstorm produced more in one even it really was great though just about everywhere else except parts of the outer cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Call it like 1.75”.... basically vaporized as soon as it stopped. Prety impressive event for Long Island.. we weren’t far from a big storm here. But close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 3 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said: You're missing the point. The 10:1 maps are not taken verbatim. Areas in SE MA are barely seeing any accumulation, let alone 6, 8, 10"+ as some models were showing using whatever ratios you choose. Ok but you know how those snow maps work. The precipitation forecast isn't that bad, it just didn't accumulate. The snow maps are just going with a snow column and QPF...they aren't doing the warm ground or light rates or whatever else impedes snowfall this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 We will go with a trace for today, Basically flakes in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 14 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: There aren't many good avenues to do that for us unfortunately. I don't hate the idea of explaining why snow didn't happen in a social media post of something like that. That does get a little close to the line of people trying to hold us liable for cancelling an event (like a music recital ), and that's not really how it works. We don't make decisions on when to close, we just provide a set of conditions and let people make the calls for themselves. The only time we tell people to shelter is for SVR/TOR/FFWs, short fused events. Otherwise, we only recommend avoiding travel in a blizzard or winter storm warning. Thankfully your job is easier than an on-air Met. No one knows you by face or even name. On-air personalities get ribbing by everyone, everywhere they go. Have to go in front of the cameras and explain to hundreds of thousands of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 8 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: this month was above avg but nothing special here, truly horrific comparatively speaking in this part of death valley the 93 superstorm produced more in one even it really was great though just about everywhere else except parts of the outer cape Winter here overall was fine, White Christmas and two ice storms. Im really not interested in late March snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 22 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: There aren't many good avenues to do that for us unfortunately. I don't hate the idea of explaining why snow didn't happen in a social media post of something like that. That does get a little close to the line of people trying to hold us liable for cancelling an event (like a music recital ), and that's not really how it works. We don't make decisions on when to close, we just provide a set of conditions and let people make the calls for themselves. The only time we tell people to shelter is for SVR/TOR/FFWs, short fused events. Otherwise, we only recommend avoiding travel in a blizzard or winter storm warning. IIRC, some official(s) in NJ tried to sue forecasters (NWS?) to recover prep costs, that turned out to be unnecessary after the 2001 early March storm shifted north. Would not want to do anything that would encourage such actions. Ok but you know how those snow maps work. The precipitation forecast isn't that bad, it just didn't accumulate. The snow maps are just going with a snow column and QPF...they aren't doing the warm ground or light rates or whatever else impedes snowfall this time of year. Even when qpf, temps, and p-type are nailed, snowfall can be tough to pin down. Best examples of my experience are the 2 storms of early Dec 2003. Each came with temps +/-20, strong winds (the 1st storm gusted near 40, 2nd near 30), and had no taint. Storm #1 dropped 24" with 1.63" LE, ratio 14.7. 2nd one was 13" from 1.53" LE, ratio only 8.5 even with less wind. Must've been some serious differences in conditions up around H7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Very heavy snow now here in Plymouth. It's been snowing lightly since about 4AM but this heavier stuff. I'm sure it wont last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Probably ocean effect band. It's doing nothing in Manomet. So narrow. Rain gauge up to .72inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Please send me reports if you have them and i'll make a map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 2 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: Probably ocean effect band. It's doing nothing in Manomet. So narrow. Rain gauge up to .72inches Did you have no snow at all? I saw Plymouth 3.5" on the PNS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 4 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: Probably ocean effect band. It's doing nothing in Manomet. So narrow. Rain gauge up to .72inches Probably... it's lighter now but still snowing. I had to clean of my cars this morning and my drive was covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Did you have no snow at all? I saw Plymouth 3.5" on the PNS. Nothing ever accumulated on pavement. I never got lower than 34 degrees. The grass in my shaded areas has a slushy dusting, but nothing accumulated on the grass areas that get full sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Plymouth is the largest town in MA. The coast is a different climate than inland. I can believe that maybe out by the airport it accumulated. The airport is north and further inland. My friend does snow removal at Colony Plaza at exit 7 which is 6mi north of me, and they usually accumulate way better than I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 3 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: Plymouth is the largest town in MA. The coast is a different climate than inland. I can believe that maybe out by the airport it accumulated. The airport is north and further inland. My friend does snow removal at Colony Plaza at exit 7 which is 6mi north of me, and they usually accumulate way better than I do. If the report comes in as just "Plymouth" the software will take the center of downtown vs. the center of the city limits. That's why we try and get spotter lat/lon to make sure we know exactly where they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 33 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Please send me reports if you have them and i'll make a map. 3" here. I like how there's 3 Southingtons on the PNS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 2 minutes ago, Thunderblizzard said: 3" here. I like how there's 3 Southingtons on the PNS. One of the biggest busts i can remember in my life. Thanks for the report. I'm going with 2.2 here when i went to bed it was still snowing and when i got up there was nothing, so impossible to measure unless i stayed up all night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 12 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: Plymouth is the largest town in MA. The coast is a different climate than inland. I can believe that maybe out by the airport it accumulated. The airport is north and further inland. My friend does snow removal at Colony Plaza at exit 7 which is 6mi north of me, and they usually accumulate way better than I do. 97 sq/mi. Take 25-30 min just to drive across it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: As a meteorologist, you appreciate the big and historical events. It's why I make fun of Kevin for saying he is happy with 1-3" events. I live for those. So yeah..happy for LI...but this late in the season...to miss a large event being so close is disappointing to me. However, if I lives on cstl CT...I would swan dive into LI Sound. LOL-so true-we were 20 miles away from 20 inches totals the way the crow flies. (3.5 here) It helps that we got nailed here with 3/7 and 3/13 events and it's practically spring and I'm ready to move on...almost every time Upton has gone big here, it has been a bust... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 2 hours ago, #NoPoles said: Plymouth is the largest town in MA. The coast is a different climate than inland. I can believe that maybe out by the airport it accumulated. The airport is north and further inland. My friend does snow removal at Colony Plaza at exit 7 which is 6mi north of me, and they usually accumulate way better than I do. Oh yeah I know it well. But it's always interesting the differences just 5 miles makes. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 3 hours ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: Winter here overall was fine, White Christmas and two ice storms. Im really not interested in late March snowfall. I am never interested in ice storms It was an average winter at best for both of us, the burst of snow xmas morning was cute but any other day would have been forgettable I could even make an argument to some it was slightly below average (for those who think this area averages 50"/season) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 2 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 97 sq/mi. Take 25-30 min just to drive across it. That's impressive. Stowe is the second largest town in Vermont for size at 73 square miles... and when you stand at 4,000ft on one edge and look towards the 3,000ft ridge on the east side, it looks massive. Can't imagine another 25 square miles on top of that. You could have a massive snowfall range in annual totals at that size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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