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Snow bomb obs March 21


Damage In Tolland

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Big red flag here from yesterday's GEFS run. Those U wind anomalies show more of a NE vs. E LLJ. Not a lot of momentum to throw precip up over the cold air when the flow is more NE in the mid levels. 

Just a few hours before this from LI and south, those anomalies were more due E.

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Also the 21.12z EPS had probabilities of 3" or more for the PSM area at 10% or so. I had a hard time believing that would be correct, but turns out it was a very good forecast. The mean 6" line didn't quite cross LI Sound either.

What's crazy is you would think with the poorer resolution of the EPS it would struggle with these gradients, but that wasn't the case.

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  On 3/22/2018 at 12:37 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Snowing moderately here. Over 2 inches now. Nice to see even if the storm overall is disappointing. 

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I agree.  Snow always seems nice to see!  I had about the same this morning when I left at 7. 

I'll have to look when I get home but I think this takes over March 1993 as my snowiest March on record.

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  On 3/22/2018 at 12:39 PM, Baroclinic Zone said:

Yeah, yeah, I get it, it's a weenie snow image.  But how is a model this bad at spitting out snow graphics like this?

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I have zero clue how that algorithm works, but it is probably a check to see if the temp is 34 or colder, and if yes it dumps 10:1 snow. The Euro more or less nailed the surface temps on the Cape (34ish). But that algorithm likely doesn't know how deep that warmer air was.

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  On 3/22/2018 at 12:41 PM, OceanStWx said:

Also the 21.12z EPS had probabilities of 3" or more for the PSM area at 10% or so. I had a hard time believing that would be correct, but turns out it was a very good forecast. The mean 6" line didn't quite cross LI Sound either.

What's crazy is you would think with the poorer resolution of the EPS it would struggle with these gradients, but that wasn't the case.

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This is brutal and I love the Euro. 

eps_snow_3_massachusetts_72.thumb.png.f0fb5a8173f59b014335dbe51816d36e.png

eps_acc_snow_massachusetts_36.thumb.png.b3da0d668168b73fad137f6fe4e90f3b.png

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  On 3/22/2018 at 12:20 PM, White Rain said:

Have 1.5” on the driveway, roads are covered but melting where cars have driven.

 

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yes wintery appeal. 

The caution flags were everywhere for this one, not sure why everyone is super upset.  Must have been looking through weenie goggles. 

 

This Winter is a B-. The March storms were fun, but the rain in January and February was a real downer, if this march snow happened in Jan, and Feb stayed cold with a few snow events it would have been an A. 

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