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March 20th-22nd Not So Suppressed Storm Obs

Rtd208

By Rtd208,
in New York City Metro

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Rjay

Rjay

Posted
Posted

Here you go 

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following is stated with a request to please check back on
our 4 AM products tomorrow morning. But as of this writing...we
continue to need to sound the siren for major or extreme impact
for the I95 corridor to I80 Wednesday afternoon and night.

Major and dangerous probable record breaking March winter snow
storm (pasting!) for both the 2 day total and the month of
March for parts of our area (NNJ for the month, PHL the storm)
with impassable roads expected and possibly the greatest number
of power outages from any storm so far in March. This continues
to look HUGE and potential extreme impact I95 corridor up to
I80.

Take this storm seriously and prepare for changing your daily
plans, especially Wednesday. Unnecessary travel is not recommended
Wednesday in eastern PA and the northwest two thirds of NJ. It
could be life threatening if disabled in rural areas. If you
have to travel, plan for much much longer commutes. Potential
exists widespread cancellations in eastern PA and much of nw NJ.

This forecast today was split between myself Wednesday through
Friday, and Lance, Friday night through the weekend.

Growing 12z/20 model consensus (exception the seemingly lagging
op 12z/20 ECMWF?) with heavy reliance on the NAM 12 and 3KM as
well as the bountiful model qpf from the RGEM/GGEM, UKMET.

We expect widespread 1 to 3 inches of qpf from this, heaviest se
PA thru northern and central NJ, Banding will be a huge
contributor. The northwest fringe of our area from KMPO to High
Point may escape with only 6 to 10 inches of snow but it is now
expected that widespread storm totals 10-20" will occur I95
corridor nwwd with isolated 25 inch amounts possible some where
between I95 and and I80...probably best chance hilly areas of
northern NJ where some 30 inches has already occurred this
month.

The forecast snow total map includes todays sleet/snow mix and
the anticipated much greater snowfall on Wednesday. Please
realize that pavement amounts will be considerably less but we
expect at least 7 inches on all pavements in NJ/e PA from this
storm as a minimum and at least 3" pavements elsewhere to the se
of I95. We forecast for the traditional accumulating surfaces
including homes/trees/wires and that is what will cause the
power outages...ie 6" or more of wet snow (32-33F) should
trigger a sharp increase in power outages Wednesday afternoon.
Also wind driven wet snow or freezing rain clinging to branches
and wires will be part of the power outage problem. Our forecast
amounts are presented on our winter wx page and social media
briefing packages serves as a good start! Have been
uncomfortable forecasting these amounts the past two days in our
area, late season and what not, but the recent advances in
modeling and snow forecasting science tells us these amounts
are probable including running qpf from snow ratios.


Wednesday and Wednesday night through 2 am Thursday...By 00z/22
(Wednesday evening), our forecast area will have been in
constant 3 to 4 standard deviation 850MB easterly flow with
pretty high values of moisture flux for 24hours!!, beginning
late this afternoon and continuing through Wednesday afternoon.
This less extreme easterly flow inflow might normally mean less
qpf, but the unusually long duration has to make up for the
normally faster newd movement of the 850MB ely inflow. I think
this justifies the NAM and GGEM QPF and resultant excessive late
season snowfall.

As the 500 mb associated heights lower, whatever remains of the
remaining above freezing 880-800MB layer is cooled to freezing
around 12z/Wednesday along and nw of I95, and any mixed
precipitation will change to snow. (We think the NAM warm nose
is a bit overdone but respect it becoming more pronounced this
evening before cooling tomorrow morning).

Bands of cirrus will increase the seeding potential (potential
thunder snow) and there is considerable agreement that FGEN
banding will develop on the northwest periphery of the deepening
mid Atlc coast cyclone. That will mean 1-3"/hr accumulations at
times Wednesday afternoon and evening, especially I95 westward.
This with snow water ratios of 11 or 12 to 1 e PA and nNJ (near
9 or 10 to 1 I95 should result in record breaking (see climate
section). If thunderstorms occur (we saw lightning in clouds in
nw VA and around 11z and recently se of DC around 1320z), then
we may have a repeat of 3-4" hr snowfall rates. There is still
uncertainty on whether thunder will occur.

Strong winds, with gusts around 45 mph, primarily along the coast,
and primarily during the morning. This will could cause power
problems, especially if there is already a snow load on trees
and power lines. The strongest winds may occur before the heaviest
snow, although that is still somewhat uncertain. I also don`t
think these strong winds will contribute too much to blowing
snow prior to the evening commute. This will be a very heavy
wet snow which should limit the blowing snow threat until
sundown Wednesday. For now consider this heart attack - power
outage snow, pasted street signs.

 

 

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=nws&issuedby=phi&product=afd&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

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Rtd208

Rtd208

Posted
  • Author
Posted
4 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Here you go 


LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following is stated with a request to please check back on
our 4 AM products tomorrow morning. But as of this writing...we
continue to need to sound the siren for major or extreme impact
for the I95 corridor to I80 Wednesday afternoon and night.

Major and dangerous probable record breaking March winter snow
storm (pasting!) for both the 2 day total and the month of
March for parts of our area (NNJ for the month, PHL the storm)
with impassable roads expected and possibly the greatest number
of power outages from any storm so far in March. This continues
to look HUGE and potential extreme impact I95 corridor up to
I80.

Take this storm seriously and prepare for changing your daily
plans, especially Wednesday. Unnecessary travel is not recommended
Wednesday in eastern PA and the northwest two thirds of NJ. It
could be life threatening if disabled in rural areas. If you
have to travel, plan for much much longer commutes. Potential
exists widespread cancellations in eastern PA and much of nw NJ.

This forecast today was split between myself Wednesday through
Friday, and Lance, Friday night through the weekend.

Growing 12z/20 model consensus (exception the seemingly lagging
op 12z/20 ECMWF?) with heavy reliance on the NAM 12 and 3KM as
well as the bountiful model qpf from the RGEM/GGEM, UKMET.

We expect widespread 1 to 3 inches of qpf from this, heaviest se
PA thru northern and central NJ, Banding will be a huge
contributor. The northwest fringe of our area from KMPO to High
Point may escape with only 6 to 10 inches of snow but it is now
expected that widespread storm totals 10-20" will occur I95
corridor nwwd with isolated 25 inch amounts possible some where
between I95 and and I80...probably best chance hilly areas of
northern NJ where some 30 inches has already occurred this
month.

The forecast snow total map includes todays sleet/snow mix and
the anticipated much greater snowfall on Wednesday. Please
realize that pavement amounts will be considerably less but we
expect at least 7 inches on all pavements in NJ/e PA from this
storm as a minimum and at least 3" pavements elsewhere to the se
of I95. We forecast for the traditional accumulating surfaces
including homes/trees/wires and that is what will cause the
power outages...ie 6" or more of wet snow (32-33F) should
trigger a sharp increase in power outages Wednesday afternoon.
Also wind driven wet snow or freezing rain clinging to branches
and wires will be part of the power outage problem. Our forecast
amounts are presented on our winter wx page and social media
briefing packages serves as a good start! Have been
uncomfortable forecasting these amounts the past two days in our
area, late season and what not, but the recent advances in
modeling and snow forecasting science tells us these amounts
are probable including running qpf from snow ratios.


Wednesday and Wednesday night through 2 am Thursday...By 00z/22
(Wednesday evening), our forecast area will have been in
constant 3 to 4 standard deviation 850MB easterly flow with
pretty high values of moisture flux for 24hours!!, beginning
late this afternoon and continuing through Wednesday afternoon.
This less extreme easterly flow inflow might normally mean less
qpf, but the unusually long duration has to make up for the
normally faster newd movement of the 850MB ely inflow. I think
this justifies the NAM and GGEM QPF and resultant excessive late
season snowfall.

As the 500 mb associated heights lower, whatever remains of the
remaining above freezing 880-800MB layer is cooled to freezing
around 12z/Wednesday along and nw of I95, and any mixed
precipitation will change to snow. (We think the NAM warm nose
is a bit overdone but respect it becoming more pronounced this
evening before cooling tomorrow morning).

Bands of cirrus will increase the seeding potential (potential
thunder snow) and there is considerable agreement that FGEN
banding will develop on the northwest periphery of the deepening
mid Atlc coast cyclone. That will mean 1-3"/hr accumulations at
times Wednesday afternoon and evening, especially I95 westward.
This with snow water ratios of 11 or 12 to 1 e PA and nNJ (near
9 or 10 to 1 I95 should result in record breaking (see climate
section). If thunderstorms occur (we saw lightning in clouds in
nw VA and around 11z and recently se of DC around 1320z), then
we may have a repeat of 3-4" hr snowfall rates. There is still
uncertainty on whether thunder will occur.

Strong winds, with gusts around 45 mph, primarily along the coast,
and primarily during the morning. This will could cause power
problems, especially if there is already a snow load on trees
and power lines. The strongest winds may occur before the heaviest
snow, although that is still somewhat uncertain. I also don`t
think these strong winds will contribute too much to blowing
snow prior to the evening commute. This will be a very heavy
wet snow which should limit the blowing snow threat until
sundown Wednesday. For now consider this heart attack - power
outage snow, pasted street signs.

 

 

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=nws&issuedby=phi&product=afd&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

I did see there is NO Travel Ban with the SOE as of now. If it is power outages that are of concern (which they should be) I agree with your other post that the snow will be lighter/drier then what we saw earlier this month so I could actually see less power outage issues IMHO. If some of these higher end double digit snowfall amounts materialize I could see a travel ban going into affect.

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tim

tim

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I do think the snow will be a little drier this time around though

..hope your right..i can see temps 29*-31* when snow is falling..still wet but hopefully not branch 

busting heavy wet paste.

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Rtd208

Rtd208

Posted
  • Author
Posted
8 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I agree.  We'll see. 

 

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah the first noreaster had a ton of wind damage and the 2nd ridiculous heavy wet snow. We've had heavy wet snow before without any power issues, like Feb 2010

Many areas saw several hours of rain prior to the changeover to heavy wet snow which contributed to the problems along with warmer temps. This storm will have no rain and much colder temps which should really help things. My dispatch center saw a few hundred storm related calls with the storm earlier this month but most were phone/cable wires down with some sporadic power lines down. Hopefully we won't have to deal with that again.

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weatherpruf

weatherpruf

Posted
Posted
51 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I hope so. Gas for the generator and fresh firewood but not looking forward to losing power again. This would be like 6th time in 7 years

Good points. I lived in Colonia for 55 years and prior to 2011, I had never lost power for more than a few hours. Since then I have lost power 3 times for a week. 

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I just hope temps don't end up a bit warmer than forecast. If it's 29/30F then power outages will be greatly reduced but if it's 31/32F then we'd have big problems. 

I’m concerned about coastal areas where temps will probably be around freezing. I think it’ll be a wet snow down here and sticky on all surfaces. 

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