high risk Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 NAM3 is a crushing too. I still wish that the NAMs didn't waste some initial precip early Wednesday as IP/ZR, but there are still plenty of hours of SN+ in both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Tonight's Euro output will be interesting since it won't reflect anything that fell/supposedly fell today. Pretty epic fail if it has us with 6-8 inches by tonight and none of it has fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Any thoughts on the 10-12 eps mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3k NAM just stalls the heavy snow bands over us all afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 NAM is consistently much lower for our area than other models. Hopefully, it's wrong. Seems to favor Southeast PA into NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Any thoughts on the 10-12 eps mean? Besides being great? No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: 12K NAM is another mauling Its still snowing decently at 00z THUR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 I hope you guys can see this. God the site sucks today. Perfect day for it too...after 2 years of no good events...christ I said this before. Euro snow maps ARE WRONG. They have like 3-6" OTG by 0z tonight from SE-NW in the dc burbs. We all know that isn't happening. Also, EPS is not useful at all. The ops have this and it IS happening. The exact placement of the bands tomorrow can't be modeled to perfection but there sure looks to be A LOT of heavy snow through the region tomorrow which makes complete sense (and why I've been honking for 3 days) with the ULL pass and tucked SLP. We can expect 1.0-1.5QPF to fall between 6z and the end of the storm. The exact jackpot won't be know until it's happening but overall WE ALL jackpot. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3K Nam looks like 2-4" for DC tomorrow morning into the afternoon. Pretty big step down from 12z. Taken verbatim, surface temperatures never get below freezing in the urban core. But the NAM has oscillated wildly with this storm so I'm not worrying too much about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I hope you guys can see this. God the site sucks today. Perfect day for it too...after 2 years of no good events...christ I said this before. Euro snow maps ARE WRONG. They have like 3-6" OTG by 0z tonight from SE-NW in the dc burbs. We all know that isn't happening. Also, EPS is not useful at all. The ops have this and it IS happening. The exact placement of the bands tomorrow can't be modeled to perfection but there sure looks to be A LOT of heavy snow through the region tomorrow which makes complete sense (and why I've been honking for 3 days) with the ULL pass and tucked SLP. We can expect 1.0-1.5QPF to fall between 6z and the end of the storm. The exact jackpot won't be know until it's happening but overall WE ALL jackpot. lol So, when looking at the totals the EURO is spitting out now...how much should you subtract? (particularly for the corridor) Perhaps half?(I'm guessing a region-wide 6-12 may be a good average for the region as a whole?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 14 minutes ago, snjókoma said: 3K Nam looks like 2-4" for DC tomorrow morning into the afternoon. Pretty big step down from 12z. Taken verbatim, surface temperatures never get below freezing in the urban core. But the NAM has oscillated wildly with this storm so I'm not worrying too much about it. IMO I prefer to look at Kuchera in Pivotal weather. 3k NAM is decent in that department for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 hours ago, clskinsfan said: The Euro run broke the site again. But what a run it is. Roger Smith is going to need to up his numbers I think I think we have good consensus on the big models. It was frustrating to not be able to get on the server just after the Euro came out! Can’t wait to see what happens tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 hours ago, Leesburgplow said: What is this model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 24 minutes ago, snjókoma said: 3K Nam looks like 2-4" for DC tomorrow morning into the afternoon. Pretty big step down from 12z. Taken verbatim, surface temperatures never get below freezing in the urban core. But the NAM has oscillated wildly with this storm so I'm not worrying too much about it. i think that amount is primarily due to what it thinks is sleet. could be right, but i don't think it's a qpf issue there. i did notice that on some of the latest runs, the trend has cut back on qpf sw of dc with the main axis. that's fine for now, though i think i'd like that trend to stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I hope you guys can see this. God the site sucks today. Perfect day for it too...after 2 years of no good events...christ I said this before. Euro snow maps ARE WRONG. They have like 3-6" OTG by 0z tonight from SE-NW in the dc burbs. We all know that isn't happening. Also, EPS is not useful at all. The ops have this and it IS happening. The exact placement of the bands tomorrow can't be modeled to perfection but there sure looks to be A LOT of heavy snow through the region tomorrow which makes complete sense (and why I've been honking for 3 days) with the ULL pass and tucked SLP. We can expect 1.0-1.5QPF to fall between 6z and the end of the storm. The exact jackpot won't be know until it's happening but overall WE ALL jackpot. lol I'm watching my ground truth vs the Euro output. Right now I've got about 1". Euro says I should have 2-3" by 6:00. That's probably not happening. My next look will be at midnight, where it says I should have 5. If I miss both of those marks by midnight tonight, then yeah, I'm not really going to trust the Euro snow maps, even Kuchera, for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So, when looking at the totals the EURO is spitting out now...how much should you subtract? (particularly for the corridor) Perhaps half?(I'm guessing a region-wide 6-12 may be a good average for the region as a whole?) Go back and click the links I posted and add .2 to whatever those 2 panels show for your yard. That is what the euro has for all snow from 2am onward. Someone is going to get destroyed along the corridor. No model can nail that exact location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, supernovasky said: I'm watching my ground truth vs the Euro output. Right now I've got about 1". Euro says I should have 2-3" by 6:00. That's probably not happening. My next look will be at midnight, where it says I should have 5. If I miss both of those marks by midnight tonight, then yeah, I'm not really going to trust the Euro snow maps, even Kuchera, for this event. Just total up qpf from 6z onward and go with that. Snowmaps have ruined this board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 18Z Nam3 Ferrier total snow, which is gonna account for the reduced accums via sleet (not so much compaction with a late March sun angle). Living in central AA County (Crofton), I'd like to believe this is the absolute lowest bar (6"). Imby I'd much rather prefer the EC and EPS...even cut in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Go back and click the links I posted and add .2 to whatever those 2 panels show for your yard. That is what the euro has for all snow from 2am onward. Someone is going to get destroyed along the corridor. No model can nail that exact location agreed, it's becoming clear the amounts will largely be determined by how far west/south/north that comma head gets. what i like is the slower evolution trend of this system. hopefully, it helps to back the flow a little bit for when the 500 low moves through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 6 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: What is this model? So good to be back first of all. I was lost without my team here. Stupid servers! Oh that model? Shoulder shrug emoji. Maybe someone can shed more light. Was that helpful? I’m sure it wasn’t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccsnowy Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Scrapping what did or didn't happen today, looking at 24 hour accumulation (10:1 ratio) from 6z Wednesday through 6z Thursday GFS 5-9" and GEM 7-9" in D.C. immediate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, 87storms said: agreed, it's becoming clear the amounts will largely be determined by how far west/south/north that comma head gets. what i like is the slower evolution trend of this system. hopefully, it helps to back the flow a little bit for when the 500 low moves through. Conventionally, the heaviest bands usually line up along and west of the fall line. Euro goes bonkers just east of 95 and I honeslty think it's overdone between 18-0z but you never know. It literally snows a foot in calvert county in 6 hours. The 12z-18z period looks incredible with inch per hour stuff over a large part of the region but even after 18z you and I pick up another 3"+. We won't know until it's happening but I feel really good for our yards. We may crack double digits no problem but I'm not saying that's a lock of course. I will say this, next time anyone posts another dumb blanket statement about zr or snow or low ratios just cuz it's daytime in late March, I'm going to bump the S out of this and the obs thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 RGEM has some crazy bands tomorrow morning roll through NoVA/DC/MD and through the eastern shore in the afternoon. I can’t wait to see the HRDERPS - I’d think it should handle the banding even better than the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 RGEM cuts back on precipitation from its 12z iteration, but still has a nice look tomorrow morning and afternoon with bands rolling through the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 NWS going all in with their new snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, yoda said: from last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: That's the old one, I tried to post it a few moments ago, but now it's 8-12 in Baltimore and DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said: from last night https://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said: from last night I know fixing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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