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March 20-21 Short Range Model Analysis


Bob Chill

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17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It does lull though. Very light precip between 0z and probably 9z. The real show is the wee hours and all day tomorrow. Holy crap is that a comma head raking. Ratios will be over 10:1. No doubt in my mind. 

Argh servers. 

 

But yeah, you're right. I think the rates are just high enough to where it masks the lull that shows up in mesos. 

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Snowmaps are terribly flawed for the regions that haven't seen any accum snow yet. They shouldn't be posted. 

Yeah. There is something whacky about what it is doing with precip this evening. Radar alone tells us it is wrong. I am almost done with the first thump already.

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13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It does lull though. Very light precip between 0z and probably 9z. The real show is the wee hours and all day tomorrow. Holy crap is that a comma head raking. Ratios will be over 10:1. No doubt in my mind. 

Bob, what's the QPF for the 10:1 period you think?  I can't see sh*t.   And this board is killing me.  I've already contacted our tech guy.

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That's pretty much all I need to know. Tomorrow's gonna rock. 

With the temp dropping tonight and our upcoming "lull", I wonder how much more impactful things become if we get hours of freezing drizzle. I'm slowly but steadily seeing my temp drop still. 

31.5/30

The Euro rocks us with the CCB all day tomorrow.  It should be epic even if the cities if it's correct.  I'm starting to believe we could even make a run at double digits in the urban corridor. 

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Afternoon AFD from LWX - i grabbed the tonight into tomorrow///

Things change considerably late tonight. Both the surface and
upper lows will be strengthening as they head east and northeast
toward us, and as divergence and isentropic lift increase late
tonight, snow, heavy at times, will overspread the region later
tonight from west-southwest to east-northeast. Have started
warning/advisory in areas without current headlines just before
this heavier band of precip is expected to move in. One thing if
note is that a warm layer could remain aloft (as depicted by
various guidance such as the NAM) into the overnight, so the
steadier precip may start as a mix of snow and sleet before
transitioning to all snow. As the low continues to strenghten
during the day Wednesday and gradually gets captured by the
upper low, heavy snow could potentially continue much of the day
across the CWA, and our totals could very well be conservative.
Would not be surprised to see additional significant revisions
to the forecast even at this late hour. Winds will be northeast
to north gusting 20-25 mph, so not a blizzard, but perhaps a
factor for severity of conditions. Accumulations will be QPF and
ratio dependent, with our current graphic including the snow
which fell today. Thus, highest totals for the whole event are
still expected for northwestern areas, with totals locally over
a foot most likely in these areas. However, given the intensity
of the precip band expected to cross the region on Wednesday
with the second low, would not be shocked if some places that
haven`t seen much so far could still manage to get close to a
foot. Temps through the next 24-30 hours will continue to be
near or a bit below freezing, with not much change overall.

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It seems like most mets are just tossing the Euro? It's been pretty consistent. It's been increasing totals but basically jackpotting Central MD on a bunch of runs and it does have some support from models like HRDPS. Surprised the totals being forecasted are still so low.

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21 minutes ago, yoda said:

Afternoon AFD from LWX - i grabbed the tonight into tomorrow///

 

 

That's an impressive read.  This is shaping up to be just classic.  Only negative is that is March 21st....but, this tucked, stalled, 990 low in the right spot looks like it will buck climo.

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regarding the euro, i was sifting through the maps and it has like 6-8" on the ground here by tonight, so yea...that's not happening.  gotta shave off what fell as sleet today, but still looks like post-changeover, we would get 1"+ (very ballpark) qpf.

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