BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3-4" by sundown tonight on the euro. Weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: 3-4" by sundown tonight on the euro. Weird Yeah that’s going to bust. But tomorrow looks epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Yeah that’s going to bust. But tomorrow looks epic. Yea, total maps are flawed and very deceiving. You an I could get maybe 1-2" before the show starts in the middle of the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 12z WRF-ARW and WRF-ARW2 are worthy Even 12z WRF-NMM is very nice as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Wow, now THAT is what I'm talking about. Where is Ji? HECS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 The Euro run broke the site again. But what a run it is. Roger Smith is going to need to up his numbers I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 WRF gives parts of Maryland 20-30" of snow wtf...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 Snowmaps are terribly flawed for the regions that haven't seen any accum snow yet. They shouldn't be posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 42 minutes ago, Snowman. said: Euro is a crushjob. Lock it up. It seems to be crushing the server most of all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It does lull though. Very light precip between 0z and probably 9z. The real show is the wee hours and all day tomorrow. Holy crap is that a comma head raking. Ratios will be over 10:1. No doubt in my mind. Argh servers. But yeah, you're right. I think the rates are just high enough to where it masks the lull that shows up in mesos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Snowmaps are terribly flawed for the regions that haven't seen any accum snow yet. They shouldn't be posted. Yeah. There is something whacky about what it is doing with precip this evening. Radar alone tells us it is wrong. I am almost done with the first thump already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It does lull though. Very light precip between 0z and probably 9z. The real show is the wee hours and all day tomorrow. Holy crap is that a comma head raking. Ratios will be over 10:1. No doubt in my mind. Bob, what's the QPF for the 10:1 period you think? I can't see sh*t. And this board is killing me. I've already contacted our tech guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Snowmaps are terribly flawed for the regions that haven't seen any accum snow yet. They shouldn't be posted. For sure, but knock half off the euro and you’re still looking at 8-12” additional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Yeah. There is something whacky about what it is doing with precip this evening. Radar alone tells us it is wrong. I am almost done with the first thump already. But most of the accumulated snow comes with part 2 late tonight and tomorrow after a lull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Bob, what's the QPF for the 10:1 period you think? I can't see sh*t. And this board is killing me. I've already contacted our tech guy. At least 1” of liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 24 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The Euro run broke the site again. But what a run it is. Roger Smith is going to need to up his numbers I think I was so frustrated! I couldn’t get on here at all for about 30 minutes!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: At least 1” of liquid. I was going to say that just eyeballing, euro has you and me around 8" before things get nutty-good with another 12-18" after that. So, I'll take my .75" of slop and just add 15.25" of powder and call it 16" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, snowmagnet said: I was so frustrated! I couldn’t get on here at all for about 30 minutes!! I was having americanwx-withdrawal...lol Bad time for the site to crash! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: That's pretty much all I need to know. Tomorrow's gonna rock. With the temp dropping tonight and our upcoming "lull", I wonder how much more impactful things become if we get hours of freezing drizzle. I'm slowly but steadily seeing my temp drop still. 31.5/30 The Euro rocks us with the CCB all day tomorrow. It should be epic even if the cities if it's correct. I'm starting to believe we could even make a run at double digits in the urban corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 EPS is wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Afternoon AFD from LWX - i grabbed the tonight into tomorrow/// Things change considerably late tonight. Both the surface and upper lows will be strengthening as they head east and northeast toward us, and as divergence and isentropic lift increase late tonight, snow, heavy at times, will overspread the region later tonight from west-southwest to east-northeast. Have started warning/advisory in areas without current headlines just before this heavier band of precip is expected to move in. One thing if note is that a warm layer could remain aloft (as depicted by various guidance such as the NAM) into the overnight, so the steadier precip may start as a mix of snow and sleet before transitioning to all snow. As the low continues to strenghten during the day Wednesday and gradually gets captured by the upper low, heavy snow could potentially continue much of the day across the CWA, and our totals could very well be conservative. Would not be surprised to see additional significant revisions to the forecast even at this late hour. Winds will be northeast to north gusting 20-25 mph, so not a blizzard, but perhaps a factor for severity of conditions. Accumulations will be QPF and ratio dependent, with our current graphic including the snow which fell today. Thus, highest totals for the whole event are still expected for northwestern areas, with totals locally over a foot most likely in these areas. However, given the intensity of the precip band expected to cross the region on Wednesday with the second low, would not be shocked if some places that haven`t seen much so far could still manage to get close to a foot. Temps through the next 24-30 hours will continue to be near or a bit below freezing, with not much change overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 10-12 just east of D.C. on the eps on stormvista seen from facebook! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 NBC just upped their forecast. https://twitter.com/amelia_draper/status/976176008347996160 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I know EPS is beyond use for this storm... but 50/51 members predict 6"+ for DC. No, this is not a joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 It seems like most mets are just tossing the Euro? It's been pretty consistent. It's been increasing totals but basically jackpotting Central MD on a bunch of runs and it does have some support from models like HRDPS. Surprised the totals being forecasted are still so low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 21 minutes ago, yoda said: Afternoon AFD from LWX - i grabbed the tonight into tomorrow/// That's an impressive read. This is shaping up to be just classic. Only negative is that is March 21st....but, this tucked, stalled, 990 low in the right spot looks like it will buck climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 https://twitter.com/BobRyanCCM/status/976181797204692997 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 12K NAM is another mauling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 regarding the euro, i was sifting through the maps and it has like 6-8" on the ground here by tonight, so yea...that's not happening. gotta shave off what fell as sleet today, but still looks like post-changeover, we would get 1"+ (very ballpark) qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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