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March 20-21 Short Range Model Analysis


Bob Chill

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viewing all the wind maps for longer than i should considering i have a client deliverable due, i think around 10pm tonight is when things really start to get energized.  looks like we get pretty firmly in the comma head of the 2nd wave for at least 6-12 hours it seems.  all the circulation just pinwheels right under us from midnight to sunset.  radar should start to light up to the south overnight.

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6 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Short term models are catching on to a north Baltimore/harford county special. Anyone who thinks they are getting most of wave 2 being far NW is smoking crack. 

 

HERPADERP and others trending that way.

Solid analysis here. Too bad you dont know what the hell you are talking about.

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starting to think there could be some legit power outages tomorrow.  even i'm seeing ice accretion in the caribbean bethesda.  with that lull, the ice will just sit there marinating, then add wet snow overnight and tomorrow.  things could get dicey as far as that's concerned.

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Pretty surprised nobody has posted the Ukie going nuclear over us. 

Mar20_12zukie.gif

That's like 2+ inches qpf.  Lets call it 1- 1.5 as snow to come, some good ratios in the comma head...yea I can extrapolate a foot in my backyard.  Will the Euro follow suit and go nuclear?

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19 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

If Wow would get off his ass and fix the tool I developed to ban people from individual subforums, I could have taken out a lot of trash. 

By the way the board staff has apparently done a great job with the server.  (knock on wood)

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This is probably the last RGEM ensemble post for this storm.  This is for the 12z run, so this is in addition to whatever had fallen by 8:00 this morning.

Mean qpf as snow as gone up.  There's a really broad area of 15+ mm now.

VzMp1gb.png

Here's mean total qpf.

uaYwI9z.png

And finally individual ensemble members.  The spread has narrowed in a good way.

w9zjIL2.gif

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5 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Not just that, Euro agrees with GFS that we switch to snow in the next 6 hours... and unlike mesos, it does not give us a lull.

It does lull though. Very light precip between 0z and probably 9z. The real show is the wee hours and all day tomorrow. Holy crap is that a comma head raking. Ratios will be over 10:1. No doubt in my mind. 

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