smokeybandit Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 AA county canceled after school activities, yet no early dismissal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 10:1 SR... but 12z GGEM has around a foot of snow for most of LWX CWA excluding southeastern S MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 10 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Gotta love Roger Smith! I might retire from the board if I get 18 inches There is exactly 0 chance Winchester gets even close to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Perhaps "" stands for cm in Canada; Roger's past forecasts would suggest that is the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: There is exactly 0 chance Winchester gets even close to that. well, 10% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 HERPADERP obliterates central MD tomorrow morning. It also says we're changing to all snow in the next couple of hours, which I'm not sure I buy, but I certainly like the look for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Here's a comparison of the noon radar from marylandwx.com with the p-type forecasts I put together last night. Overall pretty good, but if the radar analysis is right it looks like the 3k NAM overdid the ice and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 ^Swiss verifying best so far it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Down to 33.1. Won't be long now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I've been known to hit high numbers before but if the pros think 12" instead of 18" for Winchester then I guess that's more likely to verify. In that recent New England snowstorm I had 21" for ORH and BGR and came within 1" on both, surrendered a win there by going way too low on ALB and BGM so except for this subforum I seem to have the opposite tendency this winter, keep going too low in some places and seldom too high. Just a form chart that may mean nothing for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 HRDPS has the region getting obliterated tomorrow morning - 8-14" alone from the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: ^Swiss verifying best so far it seems. It looks good compared to the radar analysis, but the radar analysis is likely off. I posted it in the obs thread and it sounds like it shows too much snow west of DC, and too much rain around Columbia. I'm also not sure how weather.us calculates p-types for the different models. So the comparison should be taken with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Everything at 12Z so far is pretty much in agreement of a huge slug of heavy snow coming up through VA overnight tonight. Looks really good for the overnight and early morning hours for just about everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: HERPADERP obliterates central MD tomorrow morning. It also says we're changing to all snow in the next couple of hours, which I'm not sure I buy, but I certainly like the look for tomorrow. Central MD Central MD, blah blah blah. Ron Paul wouldn't leave me hanging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 6 minutes ago, snjókoma said: HRDPS has the region getting obliterated tomorrow morning - 8-14" alone from the CCB. How about all day... still going strong at 5 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Central MD Central MD, blah blah blah. Ron Paul wouldn't leave me hanging Obliterates central MD, but thoroughly spanks DC as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Tough call regarding conditions later today/tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Central MD Central MD, blah blah blah. Ron Paul wouldn't leave me hanging Still snowing hard across the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terpsnation Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Central MD Central MD, blah blah blah. Ron Paul wouldn't leave me hanging To be fair, looks great for us in the immediate DC area as well. Has us as rain for longer than other guidance, but crushes us once we switch over. 10:1 has us get with an additional ~9" of accumulating counting precip ONLY after we make the switch to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Is HRDPS even a good model? I like what it shows.. just have no idea about reliability... I am suspecting it is JV model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 LOL HRDPS at 42hours when snow is over in LWX CWA per Ron Paul: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3km NAM has a full changeover for much of the area by 3pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 This has a shot to break my 36 hour record single storm record from 1996 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I don't even know which thread to be in but there's some good model porn out there these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Is HRDPS even a good model? I like what it shows.. just have no idea about reliability... I am suspecting it is JV model. It's the high-res RGEM. It's intended to be the RGEM replacement and just went operational this year. From what I've seen, it's sometimes better than the RGEM and sometimes worse. It's hard to say how it does on average because it's relatively new, but from what the verifcation scores I've seen it should have less of a cold bias and less of a wet bias than the RGEM (on average). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 @cae love your stuff in here. Just my obs, but I never had rain here just north of APG on the Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Winter Storm Warnings issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 WSW for DC metro into BAL metro for 4-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowpocalypse Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, T. August said: @cae love your stuff in here. Just my obs, but I never had rain here just north of APG on the Bay. I'm in Newark, DE at work. No rain here either. Mostly snow, now predominantly sleet at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, yoda said: WSW for DC metro into BAL metro for 4-8 Did they consult with Eskimo Joe first? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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