SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 GFS still has a nice deform through the area at 18z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Wait wait wait...what's wrong the GFS? Has heavy snow all the way to S MD at 18z! Yeah... good sized heavy snow area from just west of I-95 into S MD north of St. Mary's and Calvert counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Wait wait wait...what's wrong the GFS? Has heavy snow all the way to S MD at 18z! Has to be wrong. Sounding in Waldorf has like a tiny warm nose at 950 but that's it. We're talking 2.5 hours from now. There's just no way....is there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Wait wait wait...what's wrong the GFS? Has heavy snow all the way to S MD at 18z! Standard GFS error missing the transition zone of IP/ZR in big storms. In our March 2017 sleet bomb, it did the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Has to be wrong. Sounding in Waldorf has like a tiny warm nose at 950 but that's it. We're talking 2.5 hours from now. There's just no way....is there? It's likely wrong. It's not going to get that cold upstairs that quick. I'm ignoring that part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, high risk said: Standard GFS error missing the transition zone of IP/ZR in big storms. In our March 2017 sleet bomb, it did the same thing. Ah, gotcha. Ok, I can get with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Still snowing decently in the area at 36 on 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Has to be wrong. Sounding in Waldorf has like a tiny warm nose at 950 but that's it. We're talking 2.5 hours from now. There's just no way....is there? I think the truth is in between the GFS and NAM just based on obs so far today. But I certainly hope the GFS is closer to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 15 minutes ago, yoda said: Yes please... though it may be a bit high ofc cause 10:1 SR... but me want we take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Minus the crap from today, GFS looks like a healthy accumulation...but that's assuming 10:1, which we know aint the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Gfs has been slowing the escape of the SLP every run...looks great for tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Yeah, I'm with Eskimo Joe...looks like WWA/SWS type stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 GFS- low tucked in closer compared to its 6Z run. Best look yet for the urban corridor and closer to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: Minus the crap from today, GFS looks like a healthy accumulation...but that's assuming 10:1, which we know aint the case Backside ull/comma with sub freezing surface...I'll buy a portion of 12-15:1 but cost average with some 5-8:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 GFS soundings at 18z tomorrow are beautiful. Deep DGZ with strong upward motion. I'm getting stoked. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/?model=gfs&runtime=2018032012&fh=30&lat=39.18&lon=-76.77&stationID=&tc=&mode=regular Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 GFS Kuchera is absurd. 10" for DC at 0z Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Still snowshowers in the area at 06z THUR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Kuchera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 one more comment regarding GFS ptype, relevant for this afternoon and for early Wednesday. These were 24h ptype forecasts for the March 2017 storm when there was a lot of IP/ZR in the I-95 corridor. The GFS completely missed the transition zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Good news is, even ignoring that first 18z reading, you only subtract about 1-2" of snow from the Kuchera map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 The GFS is in really good agreement with the RGEM. A little bit east with the surface low. But the closed 500 is right at the mouth of the bay. Great run for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, high risk said: one more comment regarding GFS ptype, relevant for this afternoon and for early Wednesday. These were 24h ptype forecasts for the March 2017 storm when there was a lot of IP/ZR in the I-95 corridor. The GFS completely missed the transition zone. What are you using to build that graphic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 12 minutes ago, gymengineer said: GFS- low tucked in closer compared to its 6Z run. Best look yet for the urban corridor and closer to the Euro. real close. damn near stalls briefly. the wind maps show how the first coastal drifts off and the 2nd one forms near the tidewater as the 500 low moves east. i think some of the nudge south of that closed low is allowing that 2nd coastal to slow down. gfs was a better look overall for dc/bmore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, SabreAce33 said: What are you using to build that graphic? gempak and lots of cut-n-paste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Final call (less conservative after seeing all that) ... just the snowfalls now, LE from earlier seem okay, just more of it will be snow ... added a few locations DCA 8.0" IAD 11.5" BWI 12.0" FDK 15.5" MoCo 16.5" Winchester VA 18.0" SBY 4.5" (to 12" Delaware) PHL 14.0" Expect the faster transition to verify near and north/west of I-95 but strong resistance will be encountered southeast of I-95, prolonged sleet event in s MD ... some details on that thinking ... sub-10 dews in s PA indicate that when first low moves offshore around 17z-18z a shallow tongue of colder air will push rapidly south until reaching maybe 10-20 miles beyond I-95, then it shudders to a halt as second low begins to dominate the circulation, waiting in place until second low begins to deepen overnight, then begins a slow forward motion towards se VA again. So with that colder air pushing rapidly south at first, cuts off the sleet quickly until past I-95, then unable to do so until midnight or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, high risk said: gempak and lots of cut-n-paste. What, no pencil and drafting triangle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, high risk said: gempak and lots of cut-n-paste. Well I'll be damned, gempak is available in a docker container now. That's exciting! Thanks for reminding me to check it out again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Roger Smith said: Final call (less conservative after seeing all that) ... just the snowfalls now, LE from earlier seem okay, just more of it will be snow ... added a few locations DCA 8.0" IAD 11.5" BWI 12.0" FDK 15.5" MoCo 16.5" Winchester VA 18.0" SBY 4.5" (to 12" Delaware) PHL 14.0" Expect the faster transition to verify near and north/west of I-95 but strong resistance will be encountered southeast of I-95, prolonged sleet event in s MD Gotta love Roger Smith! I might retire from the board if I get 18 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Stick around you might only get 17.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Final call (less conservative after seeing all that) ... just the snowfalls now, LE from earlier seem okay, just more of it will be snow ... added a few locations DCA 8.0" IAD 11.5" BWI 12.0" FDK 15.5" MoCo 16.5" Winchester VA 18.0" SBY 4.5" (to 12" Delaware) PHL 14.0" Expect the faster transition to verify near and north/west of I-95 but strong resistance will be encountered southeast of I-95, prolonged sleet event in s MD ... some details on that thinking ... sub-10 dews in s PA indicate that when first low moves offshore around 17z-18z a shallow tongue of colder air will push rapidly south until reaching maybe 10-20 miles beyond I-95, then it shudders to a halt as second low begins to dominate the circulation, waiting in place until second low begins to deepen overnight, then begins a slow forward motion towards se VA again. So with that colder air pushing rapidly south at first, cuts off the sleet quickly until past I-95, then unable to do so until midnight or later. 12" BWI?? Ya really think that's a possibility? Wow...would LOVE for that to verify! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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