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March 20-21 Short Range Model Analysis


Bob Chill

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  On 3/20/2018 at 3:04 PM, gymengineer said:

The RGEM turns the cities to snow much sooner than the NAM's. Around 6Z Wednesday instead of around 12Z on the NAM's. 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

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HRRR says between 17-18z today for the corridor. I'm pretty skeptical of that but I've seen the hrrr do mix lines well before. 

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  On 3/20/2018 at 3:03 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

Probably seals the deal on a warning for everyone north of I-66.

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Personally, I think they won't even issue a WWA for south of there.  Probably just a strongly worded Special Weather Statement for 4 to 8" of snow with some minor issues on the road, with temps in the mid to upper 30's.    The 0c line is running about 2 miles north of progged now.  Not sure we get out of this with even an inch now. 

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  On 3/20/2018 at 3:14 PM, stormtracker said:

Personally, I think they won't even issue a WWA for south of there.  Probably just a strongly worded Special Weather Statement for 4 to 8" of snow with some minor issues on the road, with temps in the mid to upper 30's.    The 0c line is running about 2 miles north of progged now.  Not sure we get out of this with even an inch now. 

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Wasn't Oc around  EZF with the models?

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  On 3/20/2018 at 3:11 PM, clskinsfan said:

The RGEM is really pumping the heavy snow in on the front side of the 500 low this run. Most of area gets hit pretty hard overnight.

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yea it's been jumpy though, along with the nam.  i think the main consistent trend is that there's going to be quite a band forming in central va beelining for the cities sometime in the morning.  that seems to be when things pop and it reminds me a little bit of jan '11 in that aspect (which is a good thing).

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  On 3/20/2018 at 3:26 PM, Bob Chill said:

Yea, I don't even know what the F it means (maybe I'm old...or young?) but it's funny as hell either way. 

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don_Cherry

He is a hockey guy and he wears different suits -- https://torontolife.com/city/toronto-sports/don-cherrys-most-bizarre-blazers-of-the-season-ranked-in-order-of-craziness/

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  On 3/20/2018 at 3:21 PM, stormtracker said:

It's you!!!!  My favorite screen name.   All is well.

Not sure about EZF, in all seriousness.  

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Thanks on both scores. I saw model discussion of it being there, and then closer to HEF, or even DCA, but I frankly bounced in and out of the model discussions because of work and maybe conflated a bunch of runs.  

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