stormtracker Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Pretty clear the NAM is overdoing the warm layer just based on obs so far today. I hope so. Even so, the 3k is mauling us after hour 27..probably a little sooner for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: 3k is ripping at 27 hour and that closed low isn't even half way through at hr 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3K @ 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Looks like after 17z the shore is gonna get dumped on. Might go stay in dover tonight looks to be a crush zone tomorrow for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 The 06z Swiss model caught me looking at the Euro and went all out to win me back. Well done, Swiss model. Still hugging it. I'm not sure how seriously we should take that, but the 00z Swiss model run was similar to the 00z Euro run, except the Swiss model had less snow south of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: 3k is ripping at 27 hour even better hr 30+! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 That warm layer had me extra worried yesterday. It still worries me, but if we get some good convection or release of instability to enhance the synoptic scale lift tomorrow across the DGZ (as is being progged currently), then those fat dendrite aggregates will survive a shallow warm layer a lot easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I hope so. Even so, the 3k is mauling us after hour 27..probably a little sooner for you Yeah... once it flips, it starts ripping for 8 to 10 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 No doubt these bands will be 1-2 per hour if not more and the timing is perfect late afternoon on the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 3k has some really beautiful stuff going on tomorrow. God I love closed ull stuff when it tracks right. There really is nothing like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Lwx bumping about totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 The new NAM runs are pretty incredible with the banding tomorrow. Someone is going to get wrecked. I hope its me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Lwx bumping about totals If that were to verify, there would be significant power outages in the 12"+ area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Man oh man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: Didn't want to mention it myself and come out looking like a weenie but I can see the possibility. 2 Feet might be stretching it but a foot and a half is within the realm of possibility IMO. That said I am sticking with my thoughts of 6-12 for now for your region but I reserve the right to change that upwards after seeing the 12z. I like the 6-10" call for my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 28 minutes ago, csnavywx said: Hard to dislike this sounding tomorrow morning: Note the weakly sheared, nearly unidirectional flow from 700-350mb, especially in the moist neutral to weakly unstable layer from 650-400mb. Definitely favorable for banded, convectively-enhanced snow. Or at the very least, very weakly stable, which tends to aid synoptic scale lift. In the case of released instability, lifted parcels will originate at a temperature from about -5 to -10C, meaning supercooled water is entrained into any updrafts that form. This means a mixed-phase cloud is possible that can produce charge separation. I'd say some thunder is possible tomorrow morning and mid-day if these soundings are correct. Yeah, from the looks of that sounding I could see hints of a negative theta-e lapse rate between 750-500 MB. Given the degree of synoptic scale lift expected, I'm sure that potential instability will be tapped. Accretion potential in the -5 to -10°C range does look sweet as you noted, as convection would certainly help. Also plenty of lift in the dendritic growth zone (deposition). Given the degree of saturation, lift, and potential instability, we could certainly see one of my favorite microphysical phenomena -- "rime splintering". I always liked the term, which implies a fracturing of crystals on which more supercooled water droplets would adhere to. Like an explosion of wet, aggregate flakes. Pure bliss! http://en.m.termwiki.com/EN/rime_splintering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, mappy said: I like the 6-10" call for my backyard. LWX has you at 12-18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: LWX has you at 12-18 i think its high, but what do i know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VA Mad Man Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Any guess on when we are upgraded to a Warning? 12Z suite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, WxMan1 said: Yeah, from the looks of that sounding I could see hints of a negative theta-e lapse rate between 750-500 MB. Given the degree of synoptic scale lift expected, I'm sure that potential instability will be tapped. Accretion potential in the -5 to -10°C range does look sweet as you noted, as convection would certainly help. Also plenty of lift in the dendritic growth zone (deposition). Given the degree of saturation, lift, and potential instability, we could certainly see in of my favorite microphysical phenomena -- "rime splintering". I always liked the term, which implies a fracturing of crystals on which more supercooled water droplets would adhere to. Like an explosion of wet, aggregate flakes. Pure bliss! http://en.m.termwiki.com/EN/rime_splintering Dude, posts like this should be PPV in private rooms only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, mappy said: I like the 6-10" call for my backyard. I'm going to bust very low I think. Round 1 looks to be working out. Wife says it's ripping snow at home. Already pushing 2". Round 2 looks like a thing of beauty and this trajectory upper low and slp pass usually gets us that upslope enhanced deathband thing we do so well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, mappy said: i think its high, but what do i know. LWX accumulation map is looking more and more like the euros last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: I'm going to bust very low I think. Round 1 looks to be working out. Wife says it's ripping snow at home. Already pushing 2". Round 2 looks like a thing of beauty and this trajectory upper low and slp pass usually gets us that upslope enhanced deathband thing we do so well. And to think, you needed bandaids on 9 out of 10 of your fingers to get to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, MD Mad Man said: Any guess on when we are upgraded to a Warning? 12Z suite? After 12z suite comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, mappy said: i think its high, but what do i know. Probably..but I think you're good for a foot 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: And to think, you needed bandaids on 9 out of 10 of your fingers to get to this point. Cackled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: After 12z suite comes in. You sure this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 12z 3km Ferrier has 6-10" across the region... more in N MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Dude, posts like this should be PPV in private rooms only. can we start talking about the weekend threat on the Euro. Ive already moved on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Mt. Holly WSW URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1009 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018 ...Major Coastal Storm to Affect the Region Through Wednesday Night... .A pair of low pressure systems today will consolidate into one major coastal storm late tonight and Wednesday. This is expected to bring significant impacts to our region, starting with areas of mixed precipitation today and tonight followed by significant snowfall on Wednesday. Unnecessary travel Wednesday afternoon and evening is strongly discouraged. DEZ002>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ020>027-210215- /O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0007.180320T2200Z-180322T0600Z/ Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot- Caroline-Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May- Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean- Southeastern Burlington- Including the cities of Dover, Georgetown, Rehoboth Beach, Chestertown, Centreville, Easton, Denton, Jackson, Millville, Hammonton, Cape May Court House, Ocean City, Atlantic City, Long Beach Island, and Wharton State Forest 1009 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, are expected. In addition, north to northeast winds will gust 30 to 45 mph at times with potential for stronger gusts near the coast. [/quote] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Always nice to see the words "snow may be heavy at times" in the ZPFs (updated at 10:31am from LWX) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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