PhineasC Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Someone from E WV to C MD getting 14 inches or so doesn't seem unreasonable. That's 1-2 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 13 minutes ago, supernovasky said: Looks like the significant snow moves into DC at about 11 hours from now. i'd be happy if that happens. part of me thinks we'll need to rely on the precip in southern va to get up here (kinda like jan '11), so anything before that is a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 if that coastal low tomorrow can develop quicker and transport enough atlantic moisture, then i think there will be 12" obs in northern md. that closed low moving through tomorrow is a bowling ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 9 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Someone from E WV to C MD getting 14 inches or so doesn't seem unreasonable. That's 1-2 feet. We're overcoming the biggest issue by a mile in late march (temps) no problem. I'm sitting at 33 already. Central and northern tier are going to clean up. This one has all the hallmarks of a big event up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We're overcoming the biggest issue by a mile in late march (temps) no problem. I'm sitting at 33 already. Central and northern tier are going to clean up. This one has all the hallmarks of a big event up there. I mean, don't sell us short down here. Down to 35 and I'm at work in SE DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I haven’t heard any mention of the CMC lately. I think it’s interesting that it had the higher snow totals (that we are now seeing on the Euro and GFS) on Sunday! Everyone thought it was crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 i should have looked at the rgem (and hrdps) sooner. goodness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 11 minutes ago, 87storms said: i should have looked at the rgem (and hrdps) sooner. goodness. HR DERPS FTW! we can only hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 12Z NAM not looking as sweet as its previous runs from what I am seeing.. Others care to comment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 This is last night's 00z RGEM ensemble run. It's still good for us, but not as good as the 00z Euro or 06z 3k NAM. I'll try to update around 2:00 when the 12z run comes out. First mean qpf as snow. It cut back a little along I95, but bumped up totals SE of 95. Total qpf increased overall and shifted south a little. I can't generate probabilistic maps for events that last more the 24 hours, so here are the individual ensemble members. Finally one probabilistic map. This is just for 00z tonight to 00z tomorrow night. It's been a while since we've seen a widespread map like this - I'm looking forward to reading obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, midatlanticweather said: 12Z NAM not looking as sweet as its previous runs from what I am seeing.. Others care to comment? The nam is dead to me. Especially the 12k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: 12Z NAM not looking as sweet as its previous runs from what I am seeing.. Others care to comment? It's warmer aloft it seems..but goes to snow around 8am. This is 12k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Please don't post about the 12k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 6 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Please don't post about the 12k. True, but later panels are fine FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: 12Z NAM not looking as sweet as its previous runs from what I am seeing.. Others care to comment? I actually think it looks better for tomorrow. CCB better developed over a wider area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Both look pretty sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Radar matches the short-range models well. The rebuilding of heavy precip is occurring right overhead. Perfect pivot, stall, and crawl. While not exact, it reminds me of 2/5/09. This is going to be a big event N&W of the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Here is my house in frederick. Pouring snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Hard to dislike this sounding tomorrow morning: Note the weakly sheared, nearly unidirectional flow from 700-350mb, especially in the moist neutral to weakly unstable layer from 650-400mb. Definitely favorable for banded, convectively-enhanced snow. Or at the very least, very weakly stable, which tends to aid synoptic scale lift. In the case of released instability, lifted parcels will originate at a temperature from about -5 to -10C, meaning supercooled water is entrained into any updrafts that form. This means a mixed-phase cloud is possible that can produce charge separation. I'd say some thunder is possible tomorrow morning and mid-day if these soundings are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Both 12z NAM runs show slightly warmer starting wave 2 with more of a mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: I actually think it looks better for tomorrow. CCB better developed over a wider area. i think one of the trends has been a bit of a slower evolution of the system. i think 12k looks fine, though doesn't close off quite as nicely as the rgem imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Both 12z NAM runs show slightly warmer starting wave 2 with more of a mix. Just judging by today I think it's going to bust high on those temps. It's running a little warm compared the surface analysis right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, csnavywx said: Hard to dislike this sounding tomorrow morning: Note the weakly sheared, nearly unidirectional flow from 700-350mb, especially in the moist neutral to weakly unstable layer from 650-400mb. Definitely favorable for banded, convectively-enhanced snow. Or at the very least, very weakly stable, which tends to aid synoptic scale lift. In the case of released instability, lifted parcels will originate at a temperature from about -5 to -10C, meaning supercooled water is entrained into any updrafts that form. This means a mixed-phase cloud is possible that can produce charge separation. I'd say some thunder is possible tomorrow morning and mid-day if these soundings are correct. You get this way faster than on TT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Just judging by today I think it's going to bust high on those temps. It's running a little warm compared the surface analysis right now. Yeah but it is not about the surface... it is about 850s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: Just judging by today I think it's going to bust high on those temps. It's running a little warm compared the surface analysis right now. true, but even if it's colder at the surface, there is still a warm layer around 800 mb that would make it sleety. we'd still changeover to snow and get nice accumulations, but it would occur a few hours later than desired if the NAM3 is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, high risk said: true, but even if it's colder at the surface, there is still a warm layer around 800 mb that would make it sleety. we'd still changeover to snow and get nice accumulations, but it would occur a few hours later than desired if the NAM3 is correct. Yeah, that's what I noticed. The 12z NAMS are a bit warmer upstairs for slightly longer vs 6z. Still a good amount of snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, high risk said: true, but even if it's colder at the surface, there is still a warm layer around 800 mb that would make it sleety. we'd still changeover to snow and get nice accumulations, but it would occur a few hours later than desired if the NAM3 is correct. looks like that upper level low is in no rush, so it could be that we still do pretty well on the 3k. the banding features are showing up around noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3k is ripping at 27 hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Pretty clear the NAM is overdoing the warm layer just based on obs so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: You get this way faster than on TT I actually prefer to wait and put this up in Bufkit if at all possible. The 06 GFS pretty much showed the same thing in Bufkit tomorrow morning, including centering the best lift around the DGZ and entraining supercooled water into any updrafts that do form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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