nj2va Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 6 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: I think the biggest risk is temps in the low lying areas and city as I think the main event might be delayed until mid to late morning. Short term models delaying it too. Euro suggests 1-2” tops by sun up. Hope I wake up to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: No, the ealier snow maps were grossly overdone and was pointed out multiple times. 12z Euro had 1-1.2" qpf from 6z onward for most of the area. It cut back like 25%. 12z looked overdone between 18-0z with the comma/deform and it has come to earth there. It's a fine run for good snows but deck picks concern is legit. UHI areas need a good base down by dawn. I think we get a front thump for an hour or two, and then a 'lull" until the deform band sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 21, 2018 Author Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: I think we get a front thump for an hour or two, and then a 'lull" until the deform band sets up. Kuchera has dc sitting on 3" by 8am. Not too shabby and very important. What's your temp now? I've been below freezing for hours. Not sure how the city is doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Kuchera has dc sitting on 3" by 8am. Not too shabby and very important. What's your temp now? I've been below freezing for hours. Not sure how the city is doing. 31F in petworth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: No, the ealier snow maps were grossly overdone and was pointed out multiple times. 12z Euro had 1-1.2" qpf from 6z onward for most of the area. It cut back like 25%. 12z looked overdone between 18-0z with the comma/deform and it has come to earth there. It's a fine run for good snows but deck picks concern is legit. UHI areas need a good base down by dawn. Oh dear...sounds like we'll have to hope the ice/sleet base we have up my way can do the trick. Never a comfortable feeling when changes in timing and such (particularly those that could change the complexion of expected totals) start showing up in the short range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Kuchera has dc sitting on 3" by 8am. Not too shabby and very important. What's your temp now? I've been below freezing for hours. Not sure how the city is doing. 32/30. I've been at 32 for several hours now. Latest HRRR throws a lot of moisture over us and well west of us. And we know that no models are yet capturing the secondary banding that will set up in the favored areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 21, 2018 Author Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Oh dear...sounds like we'll have to hope the ice/sleet base we have up my way can do the trick. Never a comfortable feeling when changes in timing and such (particularly those that could change the complexion of expected totals) start showing up in the short range... Expectations are subjective. I was thinking my high bar was 6-8 and that looks good on most guidance and definitely good on the euro. Euro thinking closer to 10" with Kuchera but I think that's high. 4-8" is a pretty safe bet in my yard. LWX 5-10 looks pretty good for now too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Oh dear...sounds like we'll have to hope the ice/sleet base we have up my way can do the trick. Never a comfortable feeling when changes in timing and such (particularly those that could change the complexion of expected totals) start showing up in the short range... you're in a much better spot than all of DC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 21, 2018 Author Share Posted March 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: 32/30. I've been at 32 for several hours now. Latest HRRR throws a lot of moisture over us and well west of us. And we know that no models are yet capturing the secondary banding that will set up in the favored areas. Euro is a very broad brush .7-.9 through all of Nova and the corridor from 6z onward. Details on how that happens changes ground truth like you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red_Head_Ed Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Hi folks, first time posting- looking to join a good chat that goes 24/7/365 and I finally found one. Watching new HRRR come in...it really seems to like a significant band of moderate to heavy snow setting up over BWI and moving eastward across the Bay, and has for the past several runs. Perhaps this run isn't as great for the immediate DC metro area, but it's pretty good for everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Expectations are subjective. I was thinking my high bar was 6-8 and that looks good on most guidance and definitely good on the euro. Euro thinking closer to 10" with Kuchera but I think that's high. 4-8" is a pretty safe bet in my yard. LWX 5-10 looks pretty good for now too. This whole time 8 inches was my high (although the 12z EURO kinda pushed that number to 10", lol) As long as 6-8" is on the table I'll take that...just hope it doesn't get cut back anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 26 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Expectations are subjective. I was thinking my high bar was 6-8 and that looks good on most guidance and definitely good on the euro. Euro thinking closer to 10" with Kuchera but I think that's high. 4-8" is a pretty safe bet in my yard. LWX 5-10 looks pretty good for now too. Really hoping I can get 3.6". Double digits on the year and the rest is gravy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I’m more confident for BAL than DC. Models hinting at bands forming over Baltimore and moving NE. Certainly the QPF has shifted slightly east but barely. Jesus you guys are being nuts. Filling in of the radar is happening right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Latest NAM says STFU people. Dumps over 1" qpf. Bullseye baltimore and points North. As should be expected with a coastal low in that position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, jayyy said: Latest NAM says STFU people. Dumps over 1" qpf. Bullseye baltimore and points North. As should be expected with a coastal low in that position. The NAM doesn't run for the 06z cycle until like 4am-ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 mesos run every 3 hours according to NWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: mesos run every 3 hours according to NWS The RAP runs around that schedule I believe. The NAM is a normal model. It runs the same amount of times as the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 06z NAMs (12k and 3k) seems improved for the DC area and align well with the Euro. Looking like a band of decent snow moves in/develops over the next two or three hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 hour ago, jayyy said: I’m more confident for BAL than DC. Models hinting at bands forming over Baltimore and moving NE. Certainly the QPF has shifted slightly east but barely. Jesus you guys are being nuts. Filling in of the radar is happening right now Yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Why are people defending what the Euro did? If the Kuchera method, which is supposed to factor in ratios, can't identify sleet and freezing rain from snow, what good is it? It cut snow totals by 2/3 in one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 FWIW 6z GfS is 2-5” area wide. Won’t get it done in March so you can shave that off too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, osfan24 said: Why are people defending what the Euro did? If the Kuchera method, which is supposed to factor in ratios, can't identify sleet and freezing rain from snow, what good is it? It cut snow totals by 2/3 in one run. Seems like the earlier NAM ferrier runs might be more accurate? I don’t know. This is definitely screaming massive bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, BaltimoreWxGuy said: FWIW 6z GfS is 2-5” area wide. Won’t get it done in March so you can shave that off too That defenitly would not break our streak of 26 months since the last verified warning level snow event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Short term models actually aren't that impressive considering the 2nd round is just starting. A general 2-4". Maybe it will snow more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 High Def NAM has many in the DC-Balto corridor under blues for most of the 24 hrs. beginning at 6Z. Too soon to call bust. If many get 6" to 12", quit yer biotching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Beginning at 6Z? That was 5 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Beginning at 6Z? That was 5 hours agoDid you look say the modelThe snow didn't start at 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Kuchera has dc sitting on 3" by 8am. Not too shabby and very important. What's your temp now? I've been below freezing for hours. Not sure how the city is doing. Not happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Latest 3k has us snowing into the overnight hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 9 minutes ago, 87storms said: Latest 3k has us snowing into the overnight hours. Much better than 0z at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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