Cobalt Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just hug the changing every hour HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 21, 2018 Author Share Posted March 21, 2018 It's already below freezing pretty much everywhere and accum snow will start well before sunrise so there will be a base before the sun comes up. Much of the precip during daylight hours is on the cold side of the low so it should be most well formed dendrites and not the gloppy missiles you see during waa precip. There are some factors on our favor no matter how you slice it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Just hug the changing every hour HRRR I'll take that and run with it. Even cut in half, 3 inches. My bar was one inch. I never really believed in all the inflated totals LWX was trotting out lol. I am pretty sure I'll see an inch of snow from this, maybe two. I do however congratulate those who did cash in already. Despite the angst in here, I still think wxtrix will end up with at least a foot of snow. The north tier will get 12 to 18 too. NE MD, Harford, will get in on 15 to 20. Those are all favored locations. I'll happily take my inch of snow and run with it, and be happy for all those who get a lot more. We REALLY, REALLY need to give this storm a chance. Its not even 2 am yet! Let's wait til 9am before giving up on this. All I am saying............is give it a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 - me to the HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 27 minutes ago, Jebman said: Check out the radars! Its nowcast time! We are all gonna get plenty of snow. This right here. I dont give two craps what a model is saying right now. Just LOOK AT THIS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: This right here. I dont give two craps what a model is saying right now. Just LOOK AT THIS! We are going to get plenty of snow. A few short hours from now we will all be in snowy bliss as this gels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Want that massive spin moving east and not just spinning in place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 32 minutes ago, ATreglown said: WxMan1, why hate on Richmond. We are MA too. We do not make the weather, it does and is what it is. The banding will set up and we will all know tomorrow where that shall be. Congrats to those in the MA that are so fortunate to be under such bands!! Enjoy like there is no tomorrow!! Oh no, no hate at all! I used to live there, 10+ years while working at AKQ. Love it down there. Got to experience many snow snubs during the time i was there. Seemed their fortunes changed when I moved away, lol! It's not hate. It's more like, "why couldn't RIC jackpot when I lived there?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: This right here. I dont give two craps what a model is saying right now. Just LOOK AT THIS! For those of us in central MD and further east, it's all about the Low getting tucked in, it seems...and it sounds like (and please correct me someone if I'm wrong), no matter what's going on jist to the southwest...a low further off the coast won't capture the moisture as much...so it would make little difference what we're seeing now because we just don't know, smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Verrrry slow moving strong bowling ball may be throwing things off a bit. It certainly looks a little bit slower to move east. Don't know the implications of that. These beasts are so unpredictable. Let's just see what happens and enjoy what we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 SPC upper panels showing warm tongue still supporting weak surface low in KY, have to think that these early models are losing the earlier plot without any real change in signal. Hoping that the Euro shows its superior skill this time and sets things back on track. Key problem to be resolved is how all that warmth and moisture west of the mountains is magically pulled away without influencing the shape of the coastal low, a more credible solution is the tucked one which these models have abandoned. Thinking that the Euro might slow down this progression and keep the low tucked while remnants of the current low are pulled around the 500 mb low and out towards ORF. Anyway, bet that the Euro has a better look than any of these other models and that it verifies better too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 We always have the 0z RS model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: SPC upper panels showing warm tongue still supporting weak surface low in KY, have to think that these early models are losing the earlier plot without any real change in signal. Hoping that the Euro shows its superior skill this time and sets things back on track. Key problem to be resolved is how all that warmth and moisture west of the mountains is magically pulled away without influencing the shape of the coastal low, a more credible solution is the tucked one which these models have abandoned. Thinking that the Euro might slow down this progression and keep the low tucked while remnants of the current low are pulled around the 500 mb low and out towards ORF. Anyway, bet that the Euro has a better look than any of these other models and that it verifies better too. Hope you're right!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 0z UKMET 15-20MM left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Well the current radar has the look of a developing powerful storm, but it is quite an unusual setup so not going to be too surprised if the models fail to handle it well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Models don’t make storms. At this point just look out the window Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Models don’t make storms. At this point just look out the window I am and I see rising temps and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Swiss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I look out the window and I see more drizzle lol. I look at the radar and I see an area that may be snow, moving north toward my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 3 hours ago, PivotPoint said: 0z nam through 10 am tomorrow: 18z nam run same time frame: Not trolling just saying. Major reduction on 0z nam. Plain and simple. Hopefully wrong NAMs have been so inconsistent, who cares? I have 2" already and it is snowing like crazy out there right now!! It is getting close to the 8:00 am forecast amounts at 1:22 am!! Don't think the NAMs are handling it well here in Augusta Co at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 the nams are inconsistent, but a few of us are kind of like waiting on at least some snow, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Jebman said: the nams are inconsistent, but a few of us are kind of like waiting on at least some snow, lol I hear you, but all I can say is the RGEM and GFS have been closer to verifying than the NAMs for mby in western va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Euro is a solid 6-8 for I-95 including the cities. Breathe easy folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Abbyme24 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, EHoffman said: Euro is a solid 6-8 for I-95 including the cities. Breathe easy folks. Is that Kuchera? Still like a 75% reduction from the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, Abbyme24 said: Is that Kuchera? Still like a 75% reduction from the last run. As to be expected. I'd hope to death this is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Still a lot different than 24hrs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Euro drops 0.7 for DC, 0.8 for Balt/central/northern MD, and 0.6-0.7 for NoVA. Step back from the ledge folks. Supports a very solid March event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I think the biggest risk is temps in the low lying areas and city as I think the main event might be delayed until mid to late morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 6 minutes ago, Cobalt said: As to be expected. I'd hope to death this is right Me, too!! Drops more in western va than 12Z! lollis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 21, 2018 Author Share Posted March 21, 2018 9 minutes ago, Abbyme24 said: Is that Kuchera? Still like a 75% reduction from the last run. No, the ealier snow maps were grossly overdone and was pointed out multiple times. 12z Euro had 1-1.2" qpf from 6z onward for most of the area. It cut back like 25%. 12z looked overdone between 18-0z with the comma/deform and it has come to earth there. It's a fine run for good snows but deck picks concern is legit. UHI areas need a good base down by dawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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