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March 20-21 Short Range Model Analysis

Bob Chill

By Bob Chill,
in Mid Atlantic

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WxMan1

WxMan1

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

ICON is east and drops less qpf. Remember, if the low trends east and is not tucked we have moisture transport issues. The higher amounts will be to our northeast which has been the trend with every model at 0z so far. 

Exactly.  It certainly doesn't mean event cancel, however if we cut the QPF and (thus) rates this time of year, during the day, that could make one helluva difference in snow that accumulates.

But it is what it is. Nothing we can do about it now...just enjoy what could be our last snow of the season (and what a treat to get that on March 21st!)

Now, IF these trends do come to fruition, it would be another in what seems to be so many "last minute" drastic model changes within hours before the event begins. These events have one thing in common -- Miller Bs.  Those transfers between the low west of the mtns to the ensuing cyclogenesis offshore is something the models continue to struggle with at times in the 12-48+ time frame.  Not so much flip-flopping...but trending heavier until the last minute and then putting on the brakes.  It certainly makes snow forecasting a challenge, to say the least. 

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, WxMan1 said:

Exactly.  It certainly doesn't mean event cancel, however if we cut the QPF and (thus) rates this time of year, during the day, that could make one helluva difference in snow that accumulates.

But it is what it is. Nothing we can do about it now...just enjoy what could be our last snow of the season (and what a treat to get that on March 21st!)

Now, IF these trends do come to fruition, it would be another in what seems to be so many "last minute" drastic model changes within hours before the event begins. These events have one thing in common -- Miller Bs.  Those transfers between the low west of the mtns to the ensuing cyclogenesis offshore is something the models continue to struggle with at times in the 12-48+ time frame.  Not so much flip-flopping...but trending heavier until the last minute and then putting on the brakes.  It certainly makes snow forecasting a challenge, to say the least. 

It makes it downright impossible...especially if any changes come late at night when folks have already seen your nightly forecast. I have much more sympathy for forecasters now that I am learning how many pieces have to come together on these things.

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WxMan1

WxMan1

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

It makes it downright impossible...especially if any changes come late at night when folks have already seen your nightly forecast. I have much more sympathy for forecasters now that I am learning how many pieces have to come together on these things.

It can be like throwing darts on a moving target. 

And damn those new maps...RIC beats DCA again.

Sorry for the banter...we'll see what the GEFS do. I mean, we expect a dropoff, but by how much? Not sure I'll be up for the EC.

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Amped

Amped

Posted
Posted

It sucks at this time of year when you have more diurnal convention and a weaker jet.  It's a double wammy, and makes the setup more prone to convective feedback lows as well as allowing them to have a bigger impact on the outcome.

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Ji said:

looks good! this storm is looking like all are other storms this winter. T-2. If we dont see heavy snow....i doubt anyone gets 3 in late March

If this does happen to fail it would go down as one of the all time great fails. From a Euro projected 12 hours prior HECS to T-2?  I still don’t see it going down that way looking at the radar west and south.  

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DCAlexandria

DCAlexandria

Posted
Posted
Just now, BristowWx said:

If this does happen to fail it would go down as one of the all time great fails. From a Euro projected 12 hours prior HECS to T-2?  I still don’t see it going down that way looking at the radar west and south.  

We do all time fails well.

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real

real

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, peribonca said:

So the Euro has almost ten times as much snow for DC as the GFS.... 

Euro really needs to run more than twice a day... Perhaps that could avoid some forecast snafus by making it known sooner if one run was a fluke. I think I recall the storm last March in NYC where I believe the Euro had NYC getting like 20 inches at 12z. That evening everything else started showing major red flags for Manhattan, but most mets just stuck with the Euro, eventually going down with the ship the next morning when snow quickly flipped to sleet. City ended up with like 4 inches of snow and 2 inches of sleet

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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Posted
11 minutes ago, WxMan1 said:

It can be like throwing darts on a moving target. 

And damn those new maps...RIC beats DCA again.

Sorry for the banter...we'll see what the GEFS do. I mean, we expect a dropoff, but by how much? Not sure I'll be up for the EC.

Just gotta see how it breaks. The main thing I saw on the 0z runs is the tucked slp isn't so tucked so naturally the best banding goes east with it. Is that a real shift or just a blip? Seeing all the models so far kinda do the same thing so you can't call anyone out. Lol. 

I originally wanted 4" then saw the trends and was like woah...6" might be easy and a well placed band can give me 10". I thought the euro was probably overdone and said as much after the run. Just gotta let things happen and hope for a band to park for a couple hours.  

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
Just now, BristowWx said:

If this does happen to fail it would go down as one of the all time great fails. From a Euro projected 12 hours prior HECS to T-2?  I still don’t see it going down that way looking at the radar west and south.  

Is the decrease in precip because the models think the low won't get tucked in as much? And if that's the case, would it even matter what we're seeing to to the west and south?

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87storms

87storms

Posted
Posted

Yea you can’t really fault ppl for interpreting scientific model output lol. Its probably the negative tone that ruffles feathers the most.  It’s an odd storm so conservative forecasts were probably the best ones but there’s still a chance the best model in the world is right.  I’ll take the 3-4” and call it a winter if that’s the case. We have absolutely no control over it.

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ATreglown

ATreglown

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Just gotta see how it breaks. The main thing I saw on the 0z runs is the tucked slp isn't so tucked so naturally the best banding goes east with it. Is that a real shift or just a blip? Seeing all the models so far kinda do the same thing so you can't call anyone out. Lol. 

I originally wanted 4" then saw the trends and was like woah...6" might be easy and a well placed band can give me 10". I thought the euro was probably overdone and said as much after the run. Just gotta let things happen and hope for a band to park for a couple hours.  

WxMan1, why hate on Richmond. We are MA too. We do not make the weather, it does and is what it is. The banding will set up and we will all know tomorrow where that shall be. Congrats to those in the MA that are so fortunate to be under such bands!! Enjoy like there is no tomorrow!!  :)

 

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Is the decrease in precip because the models think the low won't get tucked in as much? And if that's the case, would it even matter what we're seeing to to the west and south?

Perhaps no it wouldn’t matter.  But I would think the metros, DC especially, could do better than 2 inches.  But what do I know. Nothing.  It would just really suck.  It does answer those who complain “why aren’t we under a warning yet” why is LWX being so conservative”..well they went all in with their most recent snow maps.  And they will have to absorb the backlash if it fails.  Because it can fail at any time without warning.  They know this.  No one would have thought just 12 hours ago the 0z runs would deliver a digital fail.  

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RedSky

RedSky

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

If this does happen to fail it would go down as one of the all time great fails. From a Euro projected 12 hours prior HECS to T-2?  I still don’t see it going down that way looking at the radar west and south.  

Nah what's happened is the euro has turned into pure evil this is nothing new it guaranteed me a HECS last March and i saw 5" and on March 7th this year it guaranteed a MECS and i got 6"

 

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high risk

high risk

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Ji said:

does anyone know about this? http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/index.php?model=href&product=snowfall_024h_max&sector=conus&rd=20180321&rt=0000

     The HREF takes the most recent NAM3, HiRes Window ARW, HiRes Window NMMB, and HiRes Window ARW2 (effectively the NSSL WRF)  and the previous runs of each and aggregates them into means and probabilities.

 

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

It says ensemble max.  Assume that is the 1-10 chance for max snow maybe?

          It's simply the max value from the 8 members at each point.

 

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