osfan24 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 SREFS went down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Both NAMs seem to keep warmer mid levels earlier on that mean DC stays sleet until as late as 0400/0500 - but seem to make up for it thereafter with the duration and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 0z nam through 10 am tomorrow: 18z nam run same time frame: Not trolling just saying. Major reduction on 0z nam. Plain and simple. Hopefully wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 8 minutes ago, osfan24 said: SREFS went down. 6-7 inches mean is nothing to sneeze at this late in March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, eurojosh said: Both NAMs seem to keep warmer mid levels earlier on that mean DC stays sleet until as late as 0400/0500 - but seem to make up for it thereafter with the duration and snow. which was expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 00z NAM suite seems to be removing any concerns raised by the 18z GFS. The only thing I don't like is that they continue to show us losing some initial heavier precip late tonight to sleet, but a quick inspection of the soundings shows that the offending level is just barely above 0C, so it wouldn't take much to have those profiles be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I'm perfectly fine with 6-8". Remember, my upside was 4" before. If you bought into 12" in the urban areas, that's on you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fourseasons Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, PivotPoint said: 0z nam through 10 am tomorrow: 18z nam run same time frame: Not trolling just saying. Major reduction on 0z nam. Plain and simple. Hopefully wrong Um, 12z Wednesday is 8 a.m. Eastern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: which was expected Considering the 00z sounding at IAD had ALL portions of the column below zero... I do find it a bit difficult to see DCA having a warm layer for that long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I'm perfectly fine with 6-8". Remember, my upside was 4" before. If you bought into 12" in the urban areas, that's on you. Yeah... I'm not worried... Just one question... Which direction was the panic room again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I'm perfectly fine with 6-8". Remember, my upside was 4" before. If you bought into 12" in the urban areas, that's on you. Strongly agree. I wanted 4". If I get more, I will be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, high risk said: 00z NAM suite seems to be removing any concerns raised by the 18z GFS. The only thing I don't like is that they continue to show us losing some initial heavier precip late tonight to sleet, but a quick inspection of the soundings shows that the offending level is just barely above 0C, so it wouldn't take much to have those profiles be all snow. Is the reduction in qpf early on not as concerning in your opinion? Didn’t gfs do same, current run? 2 minutes ago, fourseasons said: Um, 12z Wednesday is 8 a.m. Eastern. Thank you for the two hour correction. Very important contribution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, high risk said: 00z NAM suite seems to be removing any concerns raised by the 18z GFS. The only thing I don't like is that they continue to show us losing some initial heavier precip late tonight to sleet, but a quick inspection of the soundings shows that the offending level is just barely above 0C, so it wouldn't take much to have those profiles be all snow. IAD at 00z had its column all below 0C... would you agree or disagree that I find it hard to believe that DCA wouldn't be right behind in their column by 04z or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 00z NAM another cut back on precipitation - depicts .5" QPF from 12z-00z tomorrow. That was 1" in the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 The 3km NAM is not pretty. Much lower precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 11 minutes ago, snjókoma said: 00z NAM another cut back on precipitation - depicts .5" QPF from 12z-00z tomorrow. That was 1" in the 18z run. We should cancel the storm and all go to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Don't look at the 3K NAM if you want to keep your sanity... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, snjókoma said: Don't look at the 3K NAM if you want to keep your sanity... I just looked at it. I'm pretty sane. Looks like 4 to 8" as predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Heh, NAMs laugh at LWX snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I see the NAM 3k and it has me worried, but then I look at the massive returns in SWVA racing our way, and the radar already filling in just to our southwest, and suddenly I'm not so worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 NAM is a disaster. It says what historical storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 20 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I just looked at it. I'm pretty sane. Looks like 4 to 8" as predicted. Umm it’s actually not 4-8” anymore in the same spots. especially around dc proper. 3k is bad, very bad. Stop acting like it wasn’t a major reduction.. IT WAS. And there’s a growing potential for a bust formulating. You have to admit that’s more of a possibility now than It was 6-8 hours ago. Correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: NAM is a disaster. It says what historical storm? NAM will drive you crazy, Ignore it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/976289630470287360 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, PivotPoint said: Umm it’s actually not 4-8” anymore in the same spots. especially around dc proper. 3k is bad, very bad. Stop acting like it wasn’t a major reduction.. IT WAS. And there’s a growing potential for a bust formulating. You have to admit that’s more of a possibility now than It was 6-8 hours ago. Correct? You need to step back from the keyboard before you snap. It’s only snow. CHILL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 this storm..this board server...the nam and my life are a complete disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 27 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I just looked at it. I'm pretty sane. Looks like 4 to 8" as predicted. If it gets no other support...can we really trust it at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I'm so interested in what the Euro says tonight. It's either a total cave or it's on an island by itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: That's crossed my mind all day. A ull rolling in like that means business. And it's late March and not Jan. This one is the real deal man. We'll talk about it for years. it's a nice setup. there's a little bit more of an easterly flow right now than i'd like (kinda feels like those april sprinkly days), but i like the vort pass. if it was north of us, i'd be more concerned. i also wonder if in a convective storm like this it might be better to go with the globals. the nam 3k might be making things more hit/miss than they really are. it's a fun storm and whether it's 2" or 12", i think we need to realize it's the first day of spring lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just let it play out at this point. You will go crazy if you dissect every model run this close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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