WesternFringe Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 7 minutes ago, mattie g said: The 18z suite wasn’t nearly as kind to us as was 12z. It is what it is. Of course, it’s really a out time to just close model tabs and worry about radar and obs, but that wasn’t what I wanted come the afternoon runs. Please elaborate. 18Z runs will have any accumulation from 12Z subtracted out, of course, so to whom (where) and by how much are they 'not as kind,' in your estimation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 14 minutes ago, nj2va said: 22z RAP has just under 1.2” QPF by 3pm in DC. 1.6” in Baltimore 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Wow, assuming a considerable amount still to come. That would easily mean a foot. Is there more to come? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: Is there more to come? Yes, not done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Is there more to come? Don't think it goes out that far yet, but almost every model I've seen has the snow continuing well into the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Is there more to come? Often it seems the models over estimate start/stop times. I like to add couple hours from start and subtract from end. Will it really snow from midnight to 8pm? Maybe but I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Often it seems the models over estimate start/stop times. I like to add couple hours from start and subtract from end. Will it really snow from midnight to 8pm? Maybe but I doubt it. These storms that run into blocking and have good dynamics have hung around longer than progged on occasion. I think if it wasn't mid March there would be less worries. We have a good cold source. A bowling ball ULL and a coastal at or near the benchmark. In the words of Cosmo Kramer. Giddyup! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 SREF mean up to 8.75" for DC, 11" for IAD. Ok, now we're done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 23z RAP has a nice DC-Annapolis band around midnight Through 4pm with more on the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said: These storms that run into blocking and have good dynamics have hung around longer than progged on occasion. I think if it wasn't mid March there would be less worries. We have a good cold source. A bowling ball ULL and a coastal at or near the benchmark. In the words of Cosmo Kramer. Giddyup! Agree I’m out there and loving every minute of it. Fell asleep for a bit. Wife was telling me about her day and instant sleepage hit me. I’m ready now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 25 minutes ago, nj2va said: I used weatherbell but I believe this is NOAA’s site for it: https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/ For some reason I don't see anything beyond the 11z RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: 23z RAP has a nice DC-Annapolis band around midnight Through 4pm with more on the way Nope, Snojkamakmdka fdkaj ; said nope. 2-4" max Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 23zHRRR through 1pm. Also has an antecedent DC-Annapolis band. Midday tomorrow is going to be sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: 23z RAP has a nice DC-Annapolis band around midnight Through 4pm with more on the way Here’s a zoomed in version from WxBell...this has 1.4” through the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 It's the RAP, who cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Wow, almost 2 inches in Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 10 minutes ago, Fozz said: For some reason I don't see anything beyond the 11z RAP. It is on pivotal weather too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, csnavywx said: It's the RAP, who cares. Does it overdo or underdo precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, csnavywx said: It's the RAP, who cares. I care. I've been using it for years - back when it was the RUC. It loses skill after a few hours, but it is pretty good at picking up on certain things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 9 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Wow, almost 2 inches in Baltimore. Of QPF?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 It's been surpassed nowadays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Of QPF?? Correct. 1.8-2 is bullseye over Baltimore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Correct. 1.8-2 is bullseye over Baltimore Not used to hearing the word "bullseye" over Baltimore City, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 It's getting a little late for model watching, but I was curious about what the 12z RGEM ensemble said about just tomorrow. So I looked at the 24 hour period from 00z tonight to 00z tomorrow. This includes the tail end of the first wave and misses the tail end of the second, but close enough. First mean qpf. It's below what some of the deterministic guidance is showing, which is at least partially due to the fact that it's an ensemble mean. But it does give a good idea of which areas are favored with round 2. And it might be a useful tool for expectation setting. The 12z RGEM had much more snow than the 12z ensemble mean, but the RGEM (and other guidance) moved towards the ensemble mean at 18z. If the above plot is where we end up tomorrow, I'll be pretty happy. And if we get the higher amounts some of the other models have shown, I'll be thrilled. Here are some probabilistic maps for tomorrow, for the same time period. A lot of people look like they're in good shape to get at least 15 mm (about 0.6") of qpf as snow. Not as many are favored to get at least 25 mm (about 1"), but I wouldn't be surprised to see someone in our area hit that amount. We probably won't know who until tomorrow though. And given that the ensemble is on the low end of guidance, more of us might hit the 1" mark than the below map suggests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Pretty incredible lightning down in NC and SW VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Pretty incredible lightning down in NC and SW VA Exactly like 1/26/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Pretty incredible lightning down in NC and SW VAProbably screwing up our storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 7 minutes ago, Ji said: 12 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Pretty incredible lightning down in NC and SW VA Probably screwing up our storm Now SW VA lightning we want. It means the western low will dominate, or at least is strong enough it will put up a fight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 21, 2018 Author Share Posted March 21, 2018 16 minutes ago, Amped said: Exactly like 1/26/11 That's crossed my mind all day. A ull rolling in like that means business. And it's late March and not Jan. This one is the real deal man. We'll talk about it for years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 14 minutes ago, Ji said: 19 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Pretty incredible lightning down in NC and SW VA Probably screwing up our storm You're killin' me, Smalls. In other news, drizzle has upticked to a heavy drizzle once more. Holding at 32/28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: That's crossed my mind all day. A ull rolling in like that means business. And it's late March and not Jan. This one is the real deal man. We'll talk about it for years. Yep, the Jan 2011 version put down snow in areas at 4 inches Thunder-snow was reported in Chester, Montgomery, and Bucks counties during the height of the storm. Snow-fall rates exceeded 4 inches an hour in some spots where very narrow mesoscale bands had set up and become nearly stationary for a couple of hours. These narrow bands produced copious amounts of snow that fell very fast and very hard across portions of the Philadelphia metro area and northern New Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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