Kmlwx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 If you are on here posting about "the rug being pulled" you may need to step back from the computer and go take a nap or something. The models look fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: If you are on here posting about "the rug being pulled" you may need to step back from the computer and go take a nap or something. The models look fine. Yeah virtually every model shows a classic look for mid Atlantic snow, whether or not any area gets the primo bands and big totals is unknowable but the euro says we all have a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, jayyy said: Jesus. Why is everyone hugging QPF on models so much. All anyone should be looking at is radar temp and pressure OBS, and using models only to look at things upstairs. Forget the surface output differences... oy You are right! This is a very dynamic system. Atmospherics that evolve later tonight and tomorrow will determine who gets what. I will simplify the equation by predicting that 0 - 500 ft elevation receives 1-5 inches, 500 - 1500 elevation receives 3 - 7 inches, 1500 -4000 ft. rerceives 6 - 15 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: If you are on here posting about "the rug being pulled" you may need to step back from the computer and go take a nap or something. The models look fine. I had a Ji moment. It just seems like we haven't had a legit snow storm in forever and the last time we did, we were modeled to get 2-3 feet of snow for a week straight and there was no waver. I miss that LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Baltimore metro is looking golden IMO Fat flakes falling currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Paq Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 21 minutes ago, Paleocene said: You can find the herpyderpy on tropical tidbits under mesoscale Make sure you scroll down, as the two Canadians are kinda hidden at the bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 32 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I gotta try and get to sleep early and not keep watching radar blossom to the SW. Qpf between now and 2am is like .05-.2 tops through the region. But the rebirth will be clearly in sight by 10pm or so... I don't drink anymore so I can't go there.... got any dank ideas? I'll be prepared for my jebwalks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 22z RAP has most of DC metro at around 0.7 - 1.0" liquid through 3pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Why does anyone care about the GFS. There will be the typical banding west/northwest of DC. The fact that the GFS is incapable of sussing that out isn't our problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Time to close this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I felt pretty confident until I read CWG didn’t increase their totals (just the chance of higher numbers in those areas) based on recent models. I guess they didn’t put any stock in the Euro at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Time to close this? Nah, we're still going to sweat until the 0z suite is done. There's not a person here who truly doesn't care about the 0z runs. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 18 minutes ago, B-Paq said: Make sure you scroll down, as the two Canadians are kinda hidden at the bottom. Nevermind, got it, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Nah, we're still going to sweat until the 0z suite is done. There's not a person here who truly doesn't care about the 0z runs. lol Indeed. Hopefully, they will come in looking good enough to end some of this despondent (and frankly, awful at times) commentary! I think some people ignore the fact that the totals showing up from 18Z do not include what was to have fallen today (and which showed up in the earlier 06/12Z runs). That, and the precise location of the heaviest bands/precip isn't going to be fully known at this point and has oscillated back and forth. Regardless, tomorrow should be a lot of fun for the entire region! One topic not discussed much are the brisk winds expected through the evening (though Bob, I think you did say something about it not long ago)...that might add another interesting wrinkle here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: It can't see it. It won't let me scroll that far. You should have a narrow gray vertical bar to between the Mesoscale column and the forecast hour columns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 This hope 850 line keeps going SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 The hardest things for the models to get right is precip type near the boundary and melt quantity while the ground cools. For everyone saying that ground truth isn't justifying the high model outputs, most people lost a couple inches so far to melt bringing the ground temp down, and a few of us lost some due to precip type issues (sleet or rain instead of snow near the temperature boundaries). But these issues will be less of a factor going forward: ground has now been cooled, sun has set, and temperatures at all layers of the atmosphere are soon to be (if not already) well below freezing. There is nothing stopping the next 24 hours from being epic. It will all come down to where the banding sets up, and who gets raked by SN++ from those bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Latest HRRR is really nice. .4 to .6 through the area by 10:00 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 Considering what's getting drawn up from NC/SC along the coast and a closed ull, there should be some reports of tssn tomorrow. Probably right on the r/s line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Latest HRRR is really nice. .4 to .6 through the area by 10:00 AM. Can't wait. Over night and early morning should be ripping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: Can't wait. Over night and early morning should be ripping. And hopefully, the more it rips tonight, the more we beat March climo tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 22z RAP has just under 1.2” QPF by 3pm in DC. 1.6” in Baltimore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 https://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter updated as of 625pm... DC has a 25% chance of 8"... 61% of 6 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: 22z RAP has just under 1.2” QPF by 3pm in DC. 1.6” in Baltimore Where do you find that again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, yoda said: Where do you find that again? I used weatherbell but I believe this is NOAA’s site for it: https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 The 18z suite wasn’t nearly as kind to us as was 12z. It is what it is. Of course, it’s really a out time to just close model tabs and worry about radar and obs, but that wasn’t what I wanted come the afternoon runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 10 minutes ago, nj2va said: 22z RAP has just under 1.2” QPF by 3pm in DC. 1.6” in Baltimore Wow, assuming a considerable amount still to come. That would easily mean a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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