SnowGolfBro Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: HRDPS seems to be joining the trend of ever-so-slightly shifting the best stuff east of 95. C'mon. That's nothing but noise. Not a major shift anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Uh oh. Hope this isn't the rug being pulled out from under us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, MD Snow said: Simple. It keeps shifting the banding every run. Death band at 12z was over the corridor. Death band at 18z was on the eastern shore. No model has really consistently shown where it's going to set up. It'll be fine. Yeah I’d agree here. I doubt any model really knows where the banding will set up. After my years here I find it hard to believe there won’t be a Moco Deathband tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Banding according to GFS is gonna be closer to the rain/snow line with temps at or below freezing... maybe we hit higher ratios. But i don't think really ANY model knows where the banding sets up, at this point. I don't expect much more than 15:1 ratios at the highest, if another deathband is also present in the cooler temps closer to N MD... if temps remain in the 20s. In NJ/DE,S/SE PA, ratios are probably gonna be around 12:1 if temperatures are colder than 32 at their highest. Somewhere in these areas, though, someone's gonna be colder than forecast and get really high ratios. It always is a possibility. Don't expect 10:1 ratios. Maybe 8:1 or 9:1. Again, only in the deathbands and what not. Pretty much almost all models sum it up: Lead low over Kentucky or that area will break free. Then the main developing LP, which is around all those thunderstorms in N FL, comes in, and the Mid-Atlantic sub-forum gets hammered during the main event tomorrow if the right set up comes to fruition. And we get our main event. Right now, the first kicker is moving in and we still have our pretty strong suppression stream over N NE. That's all i know right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1st half of storms around here usually underferform, 2nd half usually overperforms. I expect to miss at least a foot if I crash for 3hrs tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Stop looking at models and enjoy a potentially historic late March snowstorm in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: This sounds like something we always do. Worrying about where models show the banding and it almost always shows up NW of where we think (congrats Mappy/PSU). I'm not terribly concerned about the models. Just going to enjoy the show from here. Judging the radar we have a little while for this intermission. Funny how when it’s not snowing it’s easy to let your mind wander into disastertown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 You guys need to back it down. Lol. Havent we all said like 100 times that bands with a closed upper level low can never be modeled accurately? How many storms have we seen like this where the idea was correct but the placement was off? Like every single one maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Amped said: 1st half of storms around here usually underferform, 2nd half usually overperforms. I expect to miss at least a foot if I crash for 3hrs tonight. Yup. Always happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 It's like the lottery. You don't know if you've won until AFTER the numbers are drawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 It looks like there’s a bit more focus on the coastal now and maybe there’s some dynamics lost as the 500 low shifts east? That’s the only thing I can think of. I like that the euro is favorable. After seeing mostly ice today I’m good with a 4” storm tbh. My bar is 2-10”. I could envision anywhere with that range falling here. MN pointed out yesterday that the moisture fetch for wave 2 isn’t the greatest so if that holds true then it could be that we need that coastal to hug the coast, and not drift too far offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umdterps29 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Does anyone have a link to the HRRR or RAP or want to update us on how those are looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 C'mon. That's nothing but noise. Not a major shift anyway. I know. Just commenting only because it’s match a trend in the 18z sweet. Still a nice run. Sorry to weenie out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's like the lottery. You don't know if you've won until AFTER the numbers are drawn. Any amount of snow will make up for the current state of my March madness brackets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, umdterps29 said: Does anyone have a link to the HRRR or RAP or want to update us on how those are looking? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ Then click "Mesoscale" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: You guys need to back it down. Lol. Havent we all said like 100 times that bands with a closed upper level low can never be modeled accurately? How many storms have we seen like this where the idea was correct but the placement was off? Like every single one maybe? I can guess where one band is gonna be... right over "fringe land." You know it. Doesn't matter where the low is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 HRDPS says it snows until at least 00z Thursday wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: You guys need to back it down. Lol. Havent we all said like 100 times that bands with a closed upper level low can never be modeled accurately? How many storms have we seen like this where the idea was correct but the placement was off? Like every single one maybe? We are entering into the normal weenie panic phase. This is where I check out for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 lol, I decided to check the HDRPS...yall are a trip. It's a shellacking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: We are entering into the normal weenie panic phase. This is where I check out for a bit. I gotta try and get to sleep early and not keep watching radar blossom to the SW. Qpf between now and 2am is like .05-.2 tops through the region. But the rebirth will be clearly in sight by 10pm or so... I don't drink anymore so I can't go there.... got any dank ideas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: lol, I decided to check the HDRPS...yall are a trip. It's a shellacking. Went from 18” of fake snow to 13”. STORM CANCEL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I gotta try and get to sleep early and not keep watching radar blossom to the SW. Qpf between now and 2am is like .05-.2 tops through the region. But the rebirth will be clearly in sight by 10pm or so... I don't drink anymore so I can't go there.... got any dank ideas? Heavy heavy coffeve? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I'm watching my ground truth vs the Euro output. Right now I've got about 1". Euro says I should have 2-3" by 6:00. That's probably not happening. My next look will be at midnight, where it says I should have 5. If I miss both of those marks by midnight tonight, then yeah, I'm not really going to trust the Euro snow maps, even Kuchera, for this event.Wow I've got a dusting. White on grass very little on driveway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Paq Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 13 minutes ago, Amped said: HRDPS says it snows until at least 00z Thursday wow. Have a gander at that band over the bay and shore from 24-28. WOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umdterps29 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Anyone have a link to HDRPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 52 minutes ago, stormtracker said: GFS had it pouring snow in DC at 1pm. How'd that work out? Bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Jesus. Why is everyone hugging QPF on models so much. All anyone should be looking at is radar temp and pressure OBS, and using models only to look at things upstairs. Forget the surface output differences... oy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 This is good news from one of the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, B-Paq said: Have a gander at that band over the bay and shore from 24-28. WOW. I will be sure to video that 4" per hour thunder snow death-band for y'all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, umdterps29 said: Anyone have a link to HDRPS? You can find the herpyderpy on tropical tidbits under mesoscale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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