snjókoma Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 18z GFS is the next model to cut down on precipitation tomorrow - verbatim, depicts a 2-4" event in DC proper. Big step down from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 For real this time lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 LWX updated its Warning for DC to 5 to 10 inches. Had been 4 to 8. https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=DCZ001&warncounty=DCC001&firewxzone=DCZ001&local_place1=2 Miles NE Washington DC&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning&lat=38.9233&lon=-77.0103 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 The RGEM is only another .8 out this way. Although we still have no idea where the banding will end up setting up. And we should have really good ratio's out this way. I was actually surprised how much powder I got today. Not really great snowball snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 6 minutes ago, snjókoma said: 18z GFS is the next model to cut down on precipitation tomorrow - verbatim, depicts a 2-4" event in DC proper. Big step down from 12z. Each model has the best fronto/ banding focused in different places, and it varies on the same model on successive runs. Cant worry about the details. It just wont be resolved correctly at this point unfortunately. Its going to snow. I am prepared for anywhere between 3 and 12". Its just how this is probably going to go down. Deal with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 11 minutes ago, nj2va said: RGEM has some crazy bands tomorrow morning roll through NoVA/DC/MD and through the eastern shore in the afternoon. I can’t wait to see the HRDERPS - I’d think it should handle the banding even better than the RGEM. Run the loop and watch the slp off the coast. It's not just stalled...it backs in. Lol. I'm not worried about models much anymore. With the upper level low and tucked slp I'm pretty confident in a raking along the corridor. We can't ask for much better honeslty. Gfs stripes east of 95 like the euro. My guess is that happens further west. It almost always does when models do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 6 minutes ago, snjókoma said: 18z GFS is the next model to cut down on precipitation tomorrow - verbatim, depicts a 2-4" event in DC proper. Big step down from 12z. You always bring the good news. You should work on a crisis hotline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The RGEM is only another .8 out this way. Although we still have no idea where the banding will end up setting up. And we should have really good ratio's out this way. I was actually surprised how much powder I got today. Not really great snowball snow. How much did you get today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: How much did you get today? Just a little over 3 inches. I think some places not too far north of me got 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Run the loop and watch the slp off the coast. It's not just stalled...it backs in. Lol. I'm not worried about models much anymore. With the upper level low and tucked slp I'm pretty confident in a raking along the corridor. We can't ask for much better honeslty. Gfs stripes east of 95 like the euro. My guess is that happens further west. It almost always does when models do this. Hey hey, watch it there dude. Dont be taking my snow. I concur actually. Despite what some models are depicting, it usually ends up that way with this type of event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 10 minutes ago, snjókoma said: 18z GFS is the next model to cut down on precipitation tomorrow - verbatim, depicts a 2-4" event in DC proper. Big step down from 12z. Why does it cut down on precip? warmer? drier? faster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Why does it cut down on precip? warmer? drier? faster? It didn't cut down on precip. Kuchera for inner city DC was still 6". It's the urban corridor, so UHI will have some say on totals, but I think 4-6" is reasonable for inner DC and little more in the surrounding burbs inside the beltway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Why does it cut down on precip? warmer? drier? faster? Well for one thing it is run 6 hours later so there is less QPF overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Hey hey, watch it there dude. Dont be taking my snow. I concur actually. Despite what some models are depicting, it usually ends up that way with this type of event. You're going to get crushed for a while. And since you're further east you may get blizzard conditions too. Heh. Nobody is really talking about wind either. Gusts in the 30's tomorrow are probable. Should be quite a scene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Snow. Finally. It’s happening. Not sure my temp, but I’m guessing it’s cold enough for snow? Lol. Eta: Wrong thread. But how we looking for Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 GFS had it pouring snow in DC at 1pm. How'd that work out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccsnowy Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Why does it cut down on precip? warmer? drier? faster? Seems like T2m and 850 is fine, and low placement is relatively consistent, but the location of the strongest bands is different at 12z and 18z compared to earlier initializations, so lower total accumulation. Does that seem right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: You're going to get crushed for a while. And since you're further east you may get blizzard conditions too. Heh. Nobody is really talking about wind either. Gusts in the 30's tomorrow are probable. Should be quite a scene. I just hope there is enough wind to get the tree branches moving. Don't need the heavy paste dropping branches all over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, ccsnowy said: Seems like T2m and 850 is fine, and low placement is relatively consistent, but the location of the strongest bands is different at 12z and 18z compared to earlier initializations, so lower total accumulation. Does that seem right? Yea, are higher accumulations more north or south of DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccsnowy Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, ccsnowy said: Seems like T2m and 850 is fine, and low placement is relatively consistent, but the location of the strongest bands is different at 12z and 18z compared to earlier initializations, so lower total accumulation. Does that seem right? GIFs of last four runs @ 12z and 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 18Z Nam3 Ferrier total snow, which is gonna account for the reduced accums via sleet (not so much compaction with a late March sun angle). Living in central AA County (Crofton), I'd like to believe this is the absolute lowest bar (6"). Imby I'd much rather prefer the EC and EPS...even cut in half. AS county look good for 12 now it’s coming down now if this keeps up we will have 5 by midnight now that sun is going down . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, MillvilleWx said: It didn't cut down on precip. Kuchera for inner city DC was still 6". It's the urban corridor, so UHI will have some say on totals, but I think 4-6" is reasonable for inner DC and little more in the surrounding burbs inside the beltway. ??? idk what else to call this than cutting down on precipitation. 12z GFS has .7" precip in the district from 6z-18z tomorrow. 18z GFS has .35" in that same time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: It didn't cut down on precip. Kuchera for inner city DC was still 6". It's the urban corridor, so UHI will have some say on totals, but I think 4-6" is reasonable for inner DC and little more in the surrounding burbs inside the beltway. it absolutely did cut down on precip after 12z Wednesday. could just a be a blip, but it sure wasn't a happy hour run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, high risk said: it absolutely did cut down on precip after 12z Wednesday. could just a be a blip, but it sure wasn't a happy hour run. I just looked again (Am at work, so my quick glance wasn't very proficient), and yeah it did cut down on totals for DC proper, but the signal for at least a decent snow is still there. GFS isn't the model I'd chose to go off of at this time. Lots of agreement on other guidance that the CWA will get hit with a decent snow. I'm not a fan of freaking out over one model run when everything else is showing a good signal up into gametime. We've already over performed in many areas today and/or have gone as expected. I wouldn't be concerned in DC proper. They'll get a solid snowfall for this time of year. Very rare to get above 4" this late in March in DC proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 8 minutes ago, snjókoma said: ??? idk what else to call this than cutting down on precipitation. 12z GFS has .7" precip in the district from 6z-18z tomorrow. 18z GFS has .35" in that same time period. Then why did LWX just go higher with their snow totals forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 6 minutes ago, snjókoma said: ??? idk what else to call this than cutting down on precipitation. 12z GFS has .7" precip in the district from 6z-18z tomorrow. 18z GFS has .35" in that same time period. Yeah it did. That was my bad on a quick glance at work. I still think you guys will see some decent snow tomorrow with 4-6" a safe call for DC proper. Banding is always tricky to pinpoint on model guidance and usually it's not until game time that kind of forecast can be made of when and where they will setup. Again, sorry for my haste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, yoda said: Then why did LWX just go higher with their snow totals forecast? I don't work there. But they probably saw the gangbusters 12z runs as well as temps in the region supporting accumulating snow. I'm not sure if they take the 18z runs into account for their afternoon update - I doubt DC would be in the 6-8 if they did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 HRDPS seems to be joining the trend of ever-so-slightly shifting the best stuff east of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 14 minutes ago, snjókoma said: ??? idk what else to call this than cutting down on precipitation. 12z GFS has .7" precip in the district from 6z-18z tomorrow. 18z GFS has .35" in that same time period. Simple. It keeps shifting the banding every run. Death band at 12z was over the corridor. Death band at 18z was on the eastern shore. No model has really consistently shown where it's going to set up. It'll be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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